HRRR still feels there will be a small severe line, even with this out ahead of the line. This was never about massive warmth ahead of the front but rather upper dynamics. still may see a line
Arctic ice maximums mean very little, its the mins that matter. Just look at 2012....it wasn't much behind where we are at present on extent, but look where it ended up at the minimum.
well, to be fair, the GFS has had some semblance of this for a few days now, although it did lose it in the 06Z today. This is the storm I posted about where the surface depiction didnt match the upper air IMO.
It’s over folks, pack it in till next year. Why do I say this for certain. Because if you can’t get snow in a setup like this on February 1st, then you ain’t getting snow at all.
Even with air temp at 36 this morning, the roads were a sheet of ice. Even many of the majors. Rain washed away salt and the ground surface was below freezing all night. Awful this morning
That output makes zero sense. Sleet changes to snow with SW winds shifting to W to change it back to snow? Not happening. Although 0Z spits out similar outcome