Dark Star

Almost...

Sacrus' forecast would beg to differ, but I hope no more hot days...

As a closed low opens up, much energy is released. This energy many times is translated to speed of movement of the system. I would think it would be difficult to project if this "opening of the closed low" would intensify the system for both precipitation amounts and wind. I always feel wind is over forecasted.

I'll believe it when I see it. Looks to be a soaker. I wonder if any sport betting sites have the odds for the wind field? I'd like a piece of that action...

Are there any chemical plants left in northeast Jersey? There are no major industrial manufacturers left in Linden NJ, just a few relatively clean power producing plants, except fro the Bayway refinery. Newark is certainly paved over pretty good, like you said.

86.5 degrees and humid in Garwood NJ, yech!

It was beautiful today in Garwood NJ (central Union County). Close to one of the ten best, in my opinion. I guess you'll have your nice days in the summer, when the rest of us are all sweltering?

35 degrees in Garwood, with ice on my patio table!

DEFINE YOUR WINTER EXPECTATIONS As I read through many of the differences and arguments in these threads, it seems there are as many definitions of winter as there are people posting. While I prefer cold and snowy, you can’t expect much more than “normal”. Please enter your definition of winter in the format below: Type: Romanticist (Note: Type should reflect if you are a “snow hater”, “snow lover”, “realist”, “rationalist”, “pessimist”, etc.) Temperature: Near normal – enough for the local ponds to freeze for at least four weeks Snow: Normal, with conditions that don’t allow every snowfall to melt within 2-3 days; sustained snow cover. Duration: Mid December through mid March Comments: If winter conditions have not materialized (cold, snow) by mid January, and most long range models don’t see any cold air in place for the next 2-3 weeks, I usually write off winter. Yes, we could still receive a snowfall or two, and there “can” be an abrupt pattern change, but without winter conditions by mid February, the “Romanticist’s” winter never really was.

1.8" in Garwood NJ. Mostly sleet now...

Already a dusting here (central Union County, NJ). Surprised it started so early, I thought the dry air would eat away at the snow.

Snow showers approaching the Bayway Refinery in Linden from the west?

Interesting at 7:30PM the NEXRAD radar was showing the precipitation shield "leap-frog" northeast NJ about 50-100 miles northeast. This would seem that there was an energy transfer just as the storm approached our area? Quite a tease, as we watched the precipitation move in a uniform manner from West Virginia, and then all of a sudden, skipped over our area. Then again, precipitation doesn't actually act (or move) as a vehicle driving along a highway. Rather, the low pressure system is continually propagating itself, as if the low pressure system is actually continually building the road out ahead of the vehicle.

Meteorological Winter began December 01st and ends February 28th. The general consensus is that most of January seems lost to receiving much snow, barring a significant change in the persistent Pacific jet and its influence on the overall pattern. That leaves February...

Flurries invaded Linden NJ around noontime.

Had a slight amount of sleet mixed in with drizzle yesterday afternoon around 2 PM. After that, it was all plain rain in central Union county NJ.

thanks for the analysis!

Flurrying here also in Linden NJ (Tremley Pt.). There was a slight chance of snow showers predicted for last night (but not by the NWS).

As of 5 PM, Garwood in Central Union County NJ had received 1.5". I had stated that the storm for my area was for all intent was pretty much over. We then received an additional 1.0" overnight, but nothing of significance. (However, utilizing the measuring rules, I only received 2.0" of the white stuff.) At 5PM, the radar had begun to shrink. While some of the remaining precipitation shield remained intact (and eventually rotated through), there was no further development. I have yet to see a system begin to intensify, die out, and then re-intensify. Amazingly, the general forecasts for this storm were fairly close. At least I got out of work early.

Agreed. Jeff Beradelli always says that the devil is in the details. I wonder if anyone would care to dissect this event and choose the model that closest predicted this event 72, 48, and 24 hours out?

Seems like the precip shield is drying up? Appears to be 30-50 miles surrounding NYC, and that's it?

if the sun angle is an issue 20 days from the Winter Solstice, when is the sun angle NOT a factor?

A brief period of sleet mixing in at 7:45AM in Linden NJ.

Light freezing rain, to sleet, back to freezing rain, now plain rain here in Garwood NJ (Central Union County) Tough sell for accumulating snow tomorrow?

Could someone please bring the SACRUS "STORM TRACKING IMAGES" back onto page 1, preferably within the top 5 topics? I fear it will eventually get lost, and is a great tracking tool for now-casting.