Dark Star

My worst vacation was in the Bahamas in early spring. A cold front brought temps down so low, you couldn't even go in the pools.

I don't think one cold month can be used to say that we are back to an 80's pattern? I'll take cold air anytime, and hope for a major snowstorm in between cold snaps, especially with that nasty persistent warm Pacific jet looming...

At January 20th, I wouldn't say the cold has been wasted. My town has received 7.5" of the glorious white stuff so far. The fact that cold air has made its appearance in the northeast is a good sign. It takes a lot of things to go right to get a significant snowstorm in these parts. Cold air is one of the ingredients.

I would debate that central Union county NJ was in a bit of a "screw" zone. Around 3 PM, when the system was forecast to really start intensifying, an area of subsidence occurred and brought the intensity to a very light flizzle...

I suppose varying waves of heavier precipitation that occurs in almost nearly every storm, rain or snow events, is banding. However, I think we throw around the term as though one town receives 12" while a neighboring town receives 2". These would more appropriately be referred to as deformation zones, or areas of intense lifting caused by specific synoptic conditions? I think this would be an interesting point of discussion on one of the banter topics?

I "think" the NWS was pretty accurate with this one. There were a lot of varying forecasts from other entities, but none too far off the mark. Even though my backyard (Garwood NJ - central Union county) received 3.5", I was a little disappointed. I was hoping for a little bit of an overperformer. But with the subsidence at the exact time the heavier stuff was supposed to fall, I knew it was not to be. Even though the radar showed the "screw" zone, I was pessimistically optimistic that it would quickly fill in as some had mentioned. At least it's cold, and my fire is still burning from last night...

Banding?

Beginning to see some clearing skies...

You must have seen somebody else's post...

You must have seen somebody else's post...

Hmmm, got 3 1/4" at 8:45 PM. Didn't see it here....

Same here, yet it was snowing light to moderate at the time in Garwood, NJ...

Fast mover indeed. Looks like the heaviest line may move just slightly east of NYC, missing NE Jersey?

Yikes!

We have seen it before when a storm develops later than progged...

At one point, there was a sharp cutoff line running right through Union County. NWS is a little delayed with every tiny twist and turn. The forecasts on the previous small events gave been pretty accurate this season, but I'm a little skeptical on this one...

Unfortunately, one our neighbors, has a seasonal snow plow business. He spreads rock salt on the road, and sometimes pile of it, that stays there for weeks and gets into all the neighborhood dogs' paws, not to mention wedged in between our boot soles. Then creates a salt dust cloud, great for the cars for weeks...

You showed some temperature maps.

I like that last quote...

As I said, TOO many factors involved. Can't just state it. What is the correlation to Canadian land temperatures vs. Great Lakes temperatures? We are in the midst of substantial warming. To isolate the effects the Great Lakes would have on the immediate NYC metro area would take an intensive study, year by year, scenario by scenario, and some pretty involved modeling. While we know in practical terms, a cold air system retains its core better when traveling over colder (snow covered) land masses. I'm not sure if any of the existing synoptic models include this variable? Again, I'm old school, old in general and stubborn. The most significant reason why the recent cold snap wasn't that cold here is because it came here "indirectly", like so often before. Your theory would have perhaps been more evident if the cold air plunged directly across the pole and down the Hudson valley.

I will be pretty stubborn to be convinced on the effect of the Great Lakes on NYC temperatures. The calculations would be mind boggling. You would have to overcome factors like where the core of the cold air comes from (in this case it was west), wind speeds preventing significant overnight radiational cooling, snow cover, orographic heating. Then, one has to split hairs like the cold air did not come straight down the Hudson Valley, as eastern Canada has not seen true arctic air vs. the lakes not being frozen. Surely, friction alone is increased with an unfrozen Hudson Bay, but I think you are mainly targeting the effects the Great Lakes have on NYC metro temperatures. Perhaps this has been intensely studied, but no way anyone without a computer program could come close to estimating the effect the Great Lakes would have on temperatures in NYC, especially when other factors like windspeed significantly retard radiational cooling. Good idea for a thesis however. My guess, it "might affect northeastern NJ temperatures by about a degree. And the effect should be equal both day and night. Our night time lows were higher than normal 99% because of the strong winds, regardless of the temperatures of any lake(s) 400 miles or more, away.

But if the core of the cold air went west of the greater NYC metro area, doesn't that mean that the NYC metro area would not have gotten as cold, with or without any "warming" effect from the Great Lakes heat source?

very light snow with a dusting on the cars in Garwood NJ, central Union county