MANDA

Another solution and likely not the final one. This is going to bounce around before models settle in on something close to reality. If this were the final solution the drought situation for NNJ into southern New England would continue to worsen.

Was issued at 12Z. New map will be out shortly. Can almost guarantee it will be reduced based on 12Z guidance...pending EURO.

Good advice. 12Z data so far shows no consistency. GFS/GGEM are night and day different and even the GFS is modest in total qpf through next THURSDAY. This pattern needs to setup just right or forget drought busting rains. Sensitive setup and cutoff needs to be positioned correctly...much like a winter setup.

Latest Drought Monitor just released. Expansion and addition of categories. Severe Drought conditions now showing up for parts of this forum. Eastern New England really taking it on the chin with rather large area of Extreme Drought. Hopefully we can beat this back some next week.

Picked up .26" in fast moving torrential downpour. Lasted about 3 minutes and turned on and off like a faucet. Was on the southern fringe of T-storm that raced by just to my north. I'll take it. Better than nothing.

One thing for sure. Anyone who does not get meaningful rain today or tomorrow is going to have to wait until mid or late week next week for next chance at anything worth mentioning. As for today does not look hopeful for any decent amounts over a widespread area. Best chances tomorrow south and east of the TTN to EWR line. Expectations for my location are low that any relief from the obscene dryness comes over the next 24 - 36 hours. Add to that sunny skies with low humidity Friday into the weekend will continue to dry things out.

Agree. We'll see how it goes. Not likely to see highs upper 90's to 100 and 105 HI after today until next summer. That does not mean 90-95 highs and some HI readings in the upper 90's are quite over, or at least the possibility of them. I'm more interested in increased rainfall chances and the possible tropical connection. No doubt weak to modest trof over Ohio Valley and being on the western edge of WAR could make things interesting.

My location is not near as bad as some. Did pretty well in June and got lucky twice in July. My 60 day total as of today is 5.63". Some are much less fortunate so for my location it is just starting to suck.

Based on current satellite, radar and soundings not going to be any meaningful rainfall today across the area. Maybe a few small pulse storms that will come and go quickly. Another dry day. Really starting to suck.

IF real I wouldn't mind that pattern going into peak hurricane season. Trof axis around Ohio Valley, dominate WAR just offshore and blocking near Atlantic Canada. One can hope some semblance of that pattern comes to fruition for later in August.

Few pop ups now over Union and Somerset Counties. Will be interesting to see if the blossom and unload?

And it is not over yet. More storms developing on the western end of the cluster and destined to train over the already soaked and flooded areas.

Was just going to post. Northern Ocean County getting trained good. Outflow signature on radar going NW and south from storm cluster. Northern Ocean getting drenched with likely local flooding. Not a drop here

Yeah, exactly. Plot shows it well. Per radar they are raining themselves out in place and then new ones form. Places in NEPA are getting drenched. Not over a widespread area but there are locations that are going to end up with hefty totals and LOCAL flash flooding. We need to get storms to pop over NJ because the ones in NEPA are not destined to MOVE into NJ.

Yep and storm motion is slow. Places likely getting drenched.

Totally agree. At this point the hit and miss showers are not going to cut it. Fall coastal or tropical system will be what is needed to start reversing or fix in one fell swoop (if very wet TS) the negative rainfall departures. This pattern is not going to cut it. Only positive I see is if WAR remains dominate and westward enough is that any tropical system at least has a chance to affect the east coast either by coming up the coast of Gulf landfall and then remnants coming up along or east of the mountains. Nothing happening over the next 1-2 weeks that's for sure. Lets just hope the WAR can nose west enough to allow for that pathway down the road. All the clouds this morning are doing the atmosphere no favors in terms of instability today.

Old saying....When in drought leave it out. Meaning rain out of the forecast in longer range 3-5 day forecasts. This is a terrible pattern. Some will get lucky with heavier totals next 24-48 hours but not widespread and nothing that is going to end horrible dry spell for large portion of the area.

As well you shouldn't. My expectations are very low. The dryness is no joke at this point. Next several days look to offer nothing and ground will continue to dry. Tropics are shut down so we're not getting any potential help from there anytime soon. One big SAL burst after another on top of unfavorable MJO phases.

Beautiful picture ! Stunning!

I think the chances of any meaningful rainfall going forward today across NJ is very low. Not a good thing as rest of the week does not offer much. Parts of NJ are almost certainly going to bounce into D1 conditions this week or next.

This part of NJ has done very well recently! Had .04" here a little bit ago as fast moving shower moved through. Expectations for rest of the day are low. SPS says 80% chance watch box will be issued for parts of NNJ into SNE. Think anything will be very localized.

Nasty out there. DP's will get mixed out some as we progress through the afternoon but for sure one of our more uncomfortable days in progress. Worse combination of temperature and DP I ever felt around here was the July Heatwave of 1995. Felt nothing like that before or since. It was just suffocating. Anyone remember that? Was incredibly deadly in the Mid-West. Combination of T and DP out there was as extreme as it has ever been. So while hot now for sure we're a ways from that brutal heat.

Will be interesting to see some of totals come tomorrow morning. Especially over parts of Sussex County NJ and NE NJ and parts of L.I. There were parts of Sussex County that had 2-3" totals as of 8:00 this morning and from the looks of radar some of the same areas have been soaked a few times since then. NE NJ and parts of L.I. have also been hit several times with torrential downpours. Worst of it so far has gone around my location. Had .44" period ending 8:00 this morning and another .60" since then. That on top of the .25" Sunday morning. Just enough but not too much. All going to good use instead of rapid runoff. Short soakings.

Heat index readings SNJ just nasty. Air mass is juiced that is for sure. DP's mid to some upper 70's. About the upper end of what we see around here.