MANDA

Thanks! Do you know what day we are on now? I'm thinking 321 or so?

Question. For Don probably. Now that the record for latest measurable in CP is broken where are we in terms of the record for interval between measurable. I think the record is 332 days but not sure and not sure what day we are at now. Would love to bust that record as well. After that not sure what is left except least in a season.

Has been snowing for about 90 min. Have .7” thus far. Temp fell from 32 to 29.5 and now stuck at 29.8 for last 30 min. Sticking on all surfaces including treated road out front albeit not a well traveled road.

Snow is underway.

Light snow began here at 12:20. Temperature at start time was 32. We'll see what it wet bulbs to.

It is safe as of now

I believe tomorrow is safe for NYC. Don't see measurable for the park tomorrow. Highly unlikely though that they go the entire season with zero. That would be absolutely historic but something to shoot for I guess. Just don't believe that happens. Would be historic just to get through D/J/F with zero. They have to be able to pick up something along the line between now and the end of March.

Don't look now but GFS is back to glacier building mode to open February. I'll say one thing about this winter so far. I've not lost a wink of sleep over any incoming storm.

Variations on the same theme since November. Nothing has greatly changed because if it had we would have had a period of sustained cold and more snow than we have gotten. Pattern was not "good" or it would have produced and it didn't. A four day cold shot is not anything noteworthy. Sorry, just the way I see it.

Oh but look it turns much colder at 240 hours! Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Nothing will change until something changes and so far this season there have been no significant changes to the overall pattern.

Back edge coming through. About .10”. Pavement wet.

To me it does. It would somehow make the lack of snowfall worthwhile. Pyrrhic victory if you will.

Had .60" rainfall since this all began yesterday afternoon. Started as IP-/S- with no visible accumulations. Melted on contact. Currently S- with trace amounts on deck, snowboard and mulched surfaces. Temperature 32.5 degrees. Maybe a tenth or two before all is said and done.

Only going to take .10" to spoil the record so I hope they measure properly. After this dismal stretch I'd kind of like to make it worth while and break the record.

Great article! Looks like 850's reached the holy grail of Arctic cold of -40, and based on that 850 map dropped to -42 / -43 over northern MN. Also, classic surface high pressure stretching from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast. Not to mention the polar vortex and insanely low HTS over the lakes. Just don't seem to make them like this anymore.

Record lows from the Regan Inaugural outbreak. Remember it well. Was an intense, widespread and classic outbreak from right over the pole. If memory serves 850's dipped to -38 / -39 along the MN border. I have the old DIFAX maps in a box somewhere in the basement. Amazing outbreak.

.10" (one tenth) will push us to second place. You know it will happen just to add insult to injury this winter.

Agree with all of this !

Yes. Transient cold at best. And I use the term "cold" loosely.

These longer range progs are a moving target and have not shown any consistency for months as far a eastern U.S. snow and cold go. As we go through time and get into the 3-5 day range they revert to what we have been seeing since November. Until something sticks and holds for several cycles and gets into at least the 5 day period I'd consider them all dubious.

Unless 6+ I'd rather shoot for the CPK shut out. Can do without the nickle and dime stuff that is gone in a day or two. Just my opinion and I realize I am probably in the minority.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Until something changes nothing will change.

Real nice look from the EPS Mean. Now the trick is to get it to stick as we move to days 7, 5 and 3. Up until now we've not been able to hold a decent look for more than 2-3 cycles. If we can have the EPS mean look like this or something similar on the 12Z cycle this Sunday or Monday I might start to get more interested. No doubt this looks good but we need to get it to hold.

I thought the same thing. I got down to zero during the Christmas Outbreak. Seems odd but the Arctic push was south and then east. In addition to that lots of above normal heights all month to our north. Just look at the positive temperature departures over New England for December. Just very odd though that I was 10 degrees colder than Montreal for the season so far. Heck, even NYC got below 10 this season. Wonder when the last time was that NYC had a colder minimum temperature than Montreal season to date.

Don- You are the "STAT MASTER". Great stuff as always.