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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Ok you’re off in loony tunes land. That’s about as perfect a block as we can get. We don’t want more blocking than that. As it is it’s squashing everything for days to begin with and we have to wait for it to relax some.
  2. psuhoffman
    This looks moderately negative to you? Or are you basing this on the op gfs again. If so can you please preface with that so we know to ignore everything after!
  3. psuhoffman
    I didn’t even talk about warming. I said the fact Siberia can get cold has no bearing on us because they have a completely different geographic reality than us. It’s like when people point out it’s snowing somewhere at 10,000 feet lol. I said nothing about CC. It can be implied through deductive reasoning of course but this is ridiculous. That was some BS game they were playing there. There was no discussion of CC going on.
  4. psuhoffman
    It’s hard to say from one panel in a vacuum. It’s about a progression. But I think these two plots from last nights eps show what you are looking for. The 18th here is a great “loading pattern” but it’s a look we want to see like 3-5 days before a big storm. It’s not a day of look. The key here is that block 50/50 combo is going to press the boundary way south in the east. We want that because to get a big storm when a wave is on approach we need the boundary to our south. This sets us up. But look at the flow. Ridge axis is way too far east. The stj is way south. This is a suppressed look for this day. An STJ wave isn’t likely to amplify along the east coast under that. But roll that forward to this. This is close to perfect. the blocking is relaxing. The 50/50 Did its job but is now shifting east allowing room for amplification. The wave is centered in the TN valley. The ridge axis is in the mountain west. It’s subtle because all the pac waves will wash out a ridge at that range but it’s there. If I wanted to be super picky I would still prefer that pac trough western ridge be a slight smudge west. But now I’m being really picky. That look there is close to the perfect storm look when taken in conjunction with the look ahead of it.
  5. psuhoffman
    I was responding to comments, one of which was yours. So no. I’ve said this before but I’m not playing that game where someone brings up something then says “why are we talking about this”. Sorry that isn’t as clever or subtle as you think and I’m not stupid. It’s insulting that you think that would work. Take that passive aggressive BS nonsense somewhere else.
  6. psuhoffman
    Now that’s deceitful. That’s my storm. It hits Feb 20-22 not PD weekend! That particular run of the euro was just a little faster with the progression. look at the snow through Tuesday Feb 20! then by the 23 That wasn’t the PD threat. It’s squashed that wave on the 18-19th. That’s the wave after that I’ve always liked. The timing isn’t even the same. Originally the PD threat was supposed to be a wave on the 17-18. That’s now so dead people have turned to the next wave which barely even qualifies since it might start on the 19th maybe.
  7. psuhoffman
    I think Ji’s “punting” meme sparked this idea that the possible fail of the PD weekend would be a can kick somehow. Will has been trying to take that side and posting maps but to me they all scream suppression which is why I was never overly excited by that period.
  8. psuhoffman
    @Weather Will it’s still not a 0 chance. But it’s a long shot. The block is peaking Feb 20. The 50/50 is a beast. It will be hard for a stj wave to get to our latitude in that flow. It would probably take a major phased amplification to buckle that flow enough. Or…the euro almost pulled it off last night by stalling the stj wave until the 21-22. That would open the door a little more. It’s a chance. I’m not saying it’s dead. But it’s always been a long shot low probability chance. Always. So if it doesn’t work out that many a can kick or punting. That’s always been the most likely scenario given the pattern progression. If things start to go wrong with the period starting Feb 22 onward then I will be concerned and would characterize it as a can kick or fail.
  9. psuhoffman
    I was trying not to be a deb
  10. psuhoffman
    That’s suppressed look. Roll that run forward aNe the negative ends up centered off the GA SC coast. We want that negative centered in the TN valley then through southern VA. That looks like a miss south if you know how to read those maps. I’ve never seen anything that indicated a storm was likely that weekend. Nothing. Everything has always looked suppressed except a few gfs op runs. People were just trying to will it into existence because it’s PD and they won’t want to wait.
  11. psuhoffman
    @Weather Will for the record we want negatives centered where the Xs are. that look there to me screams NS wave going to our north and suppressed STJ which is what they period has always looked like.
  12. psuhoffman
    I think most of that snow was from the Feb 14 wave on that run.
  13. psuhoffman
    That looks like a snowstorm look for us to you?
  14. psuhoffman
    Other than a couple runs of the worst model there is what has shown a snow there? A single euro run? Any ggem? Did the ensemble means ever light up for that weekend? No. Weenies who love to say PD3 every year have latched onto it. First it was a weak wave around the 17th. Now that’s dead it’s a wave around the 19-20 which I guess is still technically PD if it starts Monday? That one has a bit more of a chance. Euro last night almost pulled it off but not until the 20th. It’s slower than the gfs. But either way that was never a high probability period. Never. People just want it to be.
  15. psuhoffman
    Siberia is a huge high latitude land mass sheltered from any wind flow off a warm body of water. That isn’t a coincidence. The fact it can still get cold in Siberia means absolutely nothing to us.
  16. psuhoffman
    Blocking still looks to peak around Feb 20. Making the PD storm unlikely unless a NS wave phases to buckle the flow. But my god I’ve never seen a signal this strong at this range before. As the block relaxes one of these pac waves will survive. A few days after the block peaks and starts to relax still makes sense.
  17. psuhoffman
    This enough blocking Chuck?
  18. psuhoffman
    EPS trended south with the SLP but not snowfall. Thats likely due to the thermal issues south of the PA line. Even with a better track there is diminishing return to a point unless things trend colder.
  19. psuhoffman
    Yea I’m not trying to argue why it’s not colder. I’m just making the observation that compared to past periods with a similar pattern the temps being shown aren’t as cold as I expected.
  20. psuhoffman
    That’s what I said. Given the long wave pattern it should be colder than what guidance is snowing. That’s it. Not sure why that seems to have been controversial
  21. psuhoffman
    Or something else also
  22. psuhoffman
    It snows in Mexico at elevation.
  23. psuhoffman
    And I said I’m frustrated. I expected colder. Something similar to 1958 and 2010. I didn’t said I’m throwing in the towel or changing anything yet. Sometimes people overreact to every random thought I post.
  24. psuhoffman
    I waant using the gfs. I’ve been looking at the euro control and ensemble members. They have been consistently showing underwhelming temps. A couple runs ago the euro had a storm that should have been a big snow for NC/SC but was just rain. Not even close really. And the reason the snow mean isn’t lighting up more than it is for the Feb 21-24 period is that there are quite a few perfect track rainstorms within the ensemble members. The eps h5, slp, and precip look amazing. Then the snow output looks blah. The reason is the temps.
  25. psuhoffman
    Ignore Ji. But given such an extreme -epo, -nao, -AO pattern the temperatures being shown on guidance are pretty underwhelming. I didn’t expect it to be arctic cold. But even with a good flow we would need a damn perfect no wiggle room wave pass with some of the thermals.
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