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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Yea we both know what’s going on. The difference between here and 95 is getting more extreme also. Not in the total dreg years like 2020 and 2023 so much but marginal storms where we bet 6+ and the cities bet absolutely nothing seem to be increasing. 2021 was ridiculous in that regard. There was a lot of compaction today. My depth was never over 5.2 but I cleared the deck where I measure at 7am. Also temps were right around freezing and that’s even the 200 ft elevation difference between us can matter. That’s happening a lot more lately. But I’m just thankful we’re still on the snow side of the equation on these for now. I’m afraid that ship has sailed for many places already.
  2. psuhoffman
    They’re very proud of their snowman. No help from me.
  3. psuhoffman
    Just ended. 6” total. measured 2.5” on my pool deck around 7am and 3.5” just now. Current depth is 5.2”.
  4. psuhoffman
  5. psuhoffman
    Strongest signal it’s had yet.
  6. psuhoffman
    You can’t ignore the western N American part of the PNA equation though.
  7. psuhoffman
    Omg it was mdecoy
  8. psuhoffman
    Don’t tell me it was Mdecoy
  9. psuhoffman
    Except that’s the polar opposite ridge trough configuration as the plot I posted that you also called a -pna. You can’t just call every bad pattern here -pna. It might not have been good for us but that full latitude ridge in the west I posted is most definitely a +pna. The region you were focusing on is more the epo domain. There is some overlap and ideally we want a -epo +pna.
  10. psuhoffman
    We can disagree on the cause of that particular feature but agree on the impact. I do think the western pac has run interference with a typical Nino mjo response. It can be multiple things. Problem is all those things are pushing the needle the same direction and they’re all related to the same root cause.
  11. psuhoffman
    Atari called, they’re suing you for graphic copyright infringement
  12. psuhoffman
    @Stormchaserchuck1 look +pna. Happy?
  13. psuhoffman
    Not yet but the trends are not encouraging The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance. Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it.
  14. psuhoffman
    The SW pass is south enough to get DC and Baltimore some snow. It snows up here if a cow farts. We had 50” a few years ago when DC had single digits. A marginal snow up here doesn’t tell us much. Need to see what happens closer to 95. Doesn’t need to be 6” or anything. Just 2-3” getting into the city would be a very good sign.
  15. psuhoffman
    I don’t usually like to make bold long range predictions but I’ve decided Feb 13 might have potential for NW of 95.
  16. psuhoffman
    Jan 2010
  17. psuhoffman
    If the cities can get a few inches yea of course.
  18. psuhoffman
    I'm starting to think for me it's simply a matter of how heavy the precip is, not really worried that it goes north of me so much as the euro could be right and the system is just too weak to do much given the marginal temps. It needs to thump.
  19. psuhoffman
    I've taken a look at it and it seems all over the place this winter. It can be more than one thing
  20. psuhoffman
    I am really busy today and haven't had a ton of time so behind here...but from a quick glance at stuff I think its simply where the guidance is placing that crazy deform band. Temps are marginal anywhere south of the PA line and so the crazy rates under that band are necessary for any accumulation. Obviously guidance is going to differ a little on exactly where it places that feature.
  21. psuhoffman
    13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg. and 5 of those were during Nino years. So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.
  22. psuhoffman
    That wasn’t his best moment but I’ve seen way worse.
  23. psuhoffman
    Unfortunately pivotals snow maps are less sophisticated but this has big bust potential both directions for northern MD. There are several hours before and after the change to snow that are very close either way. If the boundary layer ends up like 2 degrees colder for example and the 2 hours before the change end up snow then the ratios end up better after…suddenly those 10” numbers are possible. On the other hand if it’s 2 degrees warmer it ends up all rain and the 2-4” on the better map ends up busting high.
  24. psuhoffman
    yea. And this brings me back to a discussion from last winter I remember. Wish I could remember who it was with. But I was pointing out that historically the epo isn’t correlated to our snowfall. That’s because an epo ridge can dump the cold west. It can also be a dry pattern. Yes there are specific epo patterns that are very snowy. But there are also -epo ones that aren’t and various +epo patterns that are. The problem is the last 8 years a vast majority of our snow has come from a -epo dominant pattern. It’s the only times we’ve been cold enough! But -EPO isn’t suddenly more snowy and that’s why we’ve been in a rut, all the other various combos that should work haven’t been so much.
  25. psuhoffman
    @Terpeast the 3rd wave is tomorrow. It’s actually a sneaky ok long wave pattern to get an unexpected snow. I saw a few 4-8” type wet snow events in this type of setup in my case studies. It’s sneaky because none of the features is anomalous and sticks out but there is a subtle 50/50, subtle western ridge, a nice little ridge near Hudson and it’s an stj wave coming across at a low latitude. You. A see the suppressive influence in that the wave can’t gain much lat despite no cold at all in front of it. prime climo I think it’s reasonable to say we could have snuck some snow out of this despite the crap airmass in front of it in the past. Not for sure. Again it’s not any one or these it’s the accumulation that’s troubling.
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