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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    Atari called, they’re suing you for graphic copyright infringement
  2. psuhoffman
    @Stormchaserchuck1 look +pna. Happy?
  3. psuhoffman
    Not yet but the trends are not encouraging The MJO stalling and then suddenly tanking instead of going through 8/1/2 seems to have timed up with the collapse of the pattern on guidance. Something is destructive interfering with a Nino pattern. It happened in 2019 also. Remember how all the guidance looked epic at day 15 all winter. The guidance is based on sound science. There is a reason both years this happened. The guidance saw what we saw when we made snowy winter forecasts and expected the typical response. But something in 2019 and this year seems to be running interference. That block in Jan collapsed so fast. It’s almost unheard of after a SSW for that kind of block to break down so fast. I wonder if Chuck isn’t into something with the expanded Hadley cell disrupting things. You know how @brooklynwx99 was saying the gfs progressive bias was likely causing it to miss the block. That logic was sound. A more progressive jet would destructively interfere with blocking. But the expanded Hadley cell is also causing a more progressive jet. In the end maybe that was the right solution and the gfs bias allowed it to pick up on it.
  4. psuhoffman
    The SW pass is south enough to get DC and Baltimore some snow. It snows up here if a cow farts. We had 50” a few years ago when DC had single digits. A marginal snow up here doesn’t tell us much. Need to see what happens closer to 95. Doesn’t need to be 6” or anything. Just 2-3” getting into the city would be a very good sign.
  5. psuhoffman
    I don’t usually like to make bold long range predictions but I’ve decided Feb 13 might have potential for NW of 95.
  6. psuhoffman
    Jan 2010
  7. psuhoffman
    If the cities can get a few inches yea of course.
  8. psuhoffman
    I'm starting to think for me it's simply a matter of how heavy the precip is, not really worried that it goes north of me so much as the euro could be right and the system is just too weak to do much given the marginal temps. It needs to thump.
  9. psuhoffman
    I've taken a look at it and it seems all over the place this winter. It can be more than one thing
  10. psuhoffman
    I am really busy today and haven't had a ton of time so behind here...but from a quick glance at stuff I think its simply where the guidance is placing that crazy deform band. Temps are marginal anywhere south of the PA line and so the crazy rates under that band are necessary for any accumulation. Obviously guidance is going to differ a little on exactly where it places that feature.
  11. psuhoffman
    13 times Baltimore has entered January with less than 1" of snow and still finished above avg. and 5 of those were during Nino years. So there was legit reason to think this year would be back loaded and its not always true that a late start means a bad winter.
  12. psuhoffman
    That wasn’t his best moment but I’ve seen way worse.
  13. psuhoffman
    Unfortunately pivotals snow maps are less sophisticated but this has big bust potential both directions for northern MD. There are several hours before and after the change to snow that are very close either way. If the boundary layer ends up like 2 degrees colder for example and the 2 hours before the change end up snow then the ratios end up better after…suddenly those 10” numbers are possible. On the other hand if it’s 2 degrees warmer it ends up all rain and the 2-4” on the better map ends up busting high.
  14. psuhoffman
    yea. And this brings me back to a discussion from last winter I remember. Wish I could remember who it was with. But I was pointing out that historically the epo isn’t correlated to our snowfall. That’s because an epo ridge can dump the cold west. It can also be a dry pattern. Yes there are specific epo patterns that are very snowy. But there are also -epo ones that aren’t and various +epo patterns that are. The problem is the last 8 years a vast majority of our snow has come from a -epo dominant pattern. It’s the only times we’ve been cold enough! But -EPO isn’t suddenly more snowy and that’s why we’ve been in a rut, all the other various combos that should work haven’t been so much.
  15. psuhoffman
    @Terpeast the 3rd wave is tomorrow. It’s actually a sneaky ok long wave pattern to get an unexpected snow. I saw a few 4-8” type wet snow events in this type of setup in my case studies. It’s sneaky because none of the features is anomalous and sticks out but there is a subtle 50/50, subtle western ridge, a nice little ridge near Hudson and it’s an stj wave coming across at a low latitude. You. A see the suppressive influence in that the wave can’t gain much lat despite no cold at all in front of it. prime climo I think it’s reasonable to say we could have snuck some snow out of this despite the crap airmass in front of it in the past. Not for sure. Again it’s not any one or these it’s the accumulation that’s troubling.
  16. psuhoffman
    My conviction on this is not 100% Im open to having my mind changed on the Dec wave. But what I noted was the cold at the mid levels got in ahead of the wave. But the boundary, even up here, was a mess. Places close to 95 had snow for hours it just couldn’t really accumulate. I don’t even think it was getting colder in the boundary. It seemed to me what cold there was got in in time it just want cold enough and not sure another 6 hours would have mattered that much. But again I could be wrong here. That one I’m willing to adjust my opinion on. But Jan 7. There was no excuse for that ish.
  17. psuhoffman
    Numerical indexes don’t often match the realities of the long wave pattern. That’s why I post the h5 never index values. Anomalies in one part of a domain can skew the values. Also what we focus on as the “pna” is actually only one small part of the domain (western US) but it’s the part that matters most for our snow. When people day PNA there usually what they’re referring too, a western US trough, even if technically the pna might not be negative due to other parts of the domain.
  18. psuhoffman
    Oh I’m seeing it. But there is another thread and even if that does trend better I’m likely to do a lot better so I’m sensitive in those scenarios not to say much. I feel bad for everyone else when I get snow and they don’t.
  19. psuhoffman
    That last part is where this all comes together. Maybe right now that just won’t work because everything’s shifted north by the expanded mid latitude circulation
  20. psuhoffman
    I agree with a lot of this. But why did you expect a +pna in a -PDO Nino? There have been 4 Moderate/strong -PDO Ninos. None featured a +pna. Mean for the 4 is below. 3 of the 4 were some of the snowiest winters in history here including 2010! The one exception was 1973 which was a +QBO and has a crazy +++AO So if we agree that was an outlier and toss all 3 examples of a -pdo moderate or stronger Nino featured both a -pna and a shit ton of snow. Actually if you simply take all moderate to strong ninos the mean is a -pna. It’s only weak modoki ninos like 2003 and 2015 that feature a +pna. But Baltimore averages 40” of snow in -QBO ninos despite the fact the pna is typically negative. I never expected a +pna this winter. My analogs that produced a mean snow of 42” were -PNA city. There is something else going on. It’s not the pna because the pna was negative in past epic snowy ninos.
  21. psuhoffman
    @Stormchaserchuck1 you know what this isn’t fair to you so imma just come out and say it. I’ve been beating around the bush with you because some freak out when anything related to warning gets brought up. But it seems what’s going on is I’m saying “this should work, look at all the times we snowed with that” and you seem to be implying “that doesn’t work anymore”.
  22. psuhoffman
    The Dec “anafront” wave that I got 4”. It wasn’t actually an anafront. It was on long range guidance. It morphed into a nice caboose wave where the mid level and surface track was perfect for DC and Balt. I was actually NW of the best precip with that wave. Only reason I was the snow max was the places further east that should have been were too warm! And the 850s were displaced well southeast of the actual rain snow line, east of 95, the whole event. Historically with these trailing waves behind a front the 850 and snow line are not that disconnected! Imo if I showed you just the h5, h7, h85, mslp, and qpf plots and said “where is the snow max” you’d probably say a nice 3-6 stripe right through DC/Balt. But they got white rain instead. I know it wasn’t as significant as the Jan 7 wave. That one could have been 6-10” if it was just colder. I know the slp took a slightly inside track but that’s because of the crap thermals. The mid and upper track of that wave was perfect and with better thermals the slp doesn’t jog inside and end up under mid level low like that imo. But those little 3-4” snows being subtracted add up. I’m not saying all 3 definitely should have been snow. I’m not saying every perfect track system in a bad thermal regime was snow in the past. But a significant % was. So I take note when they all seem to fail. If we go back through the last 7 years which we all know have been the worst snow period in DC/Balt recorded history, if we simply flip about 1/3 of all these perfect wave pass winter rainstorms to snow, it still wouldn’t be some epic good period. But we wouldn’t be talking about it the same way. We would simply be in the midst of one of our more typical down snow cycles that happen regularly through history. What’s made it awful instead of just bad is this phenomenon imo.
  23. psuhoffman
    you just said the quiet part out loud.
  24. psuhoffman
    @Stormchaserchuck1 look at this 4 weeks! And if we get another 4 weeks to end winter like this it will skew the mean back towards this for the Dec-March period.
  25. psuhoffman
    Why are you posting the day 12 of the worst operational model?
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