psuhoffman

Chuck, I’ve joked about the resolution of those maps but seriously it’s time to have a real discussion about the depth maps. First of all the dc area failed last night because the precip shifted north of them. They only got about .15 qpf around the area and some of that was rain! Places that got snow had higher than 10-1 ratios generally. The temps in southern PA and my area were in the low 30s also. Everything shifted north including temps. And that area had very high ratios because of the optimal snow growth conditions. Had the storm not shifted north like it did at the last minute the DC to Baltimore area would have had good ratios! But more importantly those snow depth maps are NEVER actually correct. They were horrifically wrong last night. They had a max snow of 4”! Places got 14”! A very large area from me north to NYC got over 4”. Those snow depth maps were awful. Had the storm not shifted north our area would have got the 4-8” NWS predicted and possibly more! They were only right in our specific location because the storm busted and missed us! They are often right here for that same reason. Because we suck monkey nuts at snow and often the storm busts. But that’s like some guru who predicted western Michigan institute for the blind will have a losing season every year. No shit they lose every year! That doesn’t make him a great prognosticator. In places that actually get hit by the storm those maps suck ass. And once in a blue moon when a snowstorm actually does flush hit us they are wrong here too like both storms back in January when they said 2” max and the area got 3-6” The last storm Tuesday were wrong too! They had a max zone of 4-5” and places got 12”. I got 6” and they had 1” here. Honestly those depth maps are atrocious. Saying the models never indicated more than a few inches and using those god awful abominations to justify that is not legitimate. The reality is 18 hours out the models had us getting hit with that fgen snow band that dumped 6-10” up in PA! Had that not shifted north the NWS might have even busted low in places!

Can we still get a storm like 1996 where it’s snowing hard at like 14 degrees at Dulles?

4.3” total based on new snow on the deck since I cleared it at 3am. 4” depth. My driveway melted overnight!

Snowing again big fluffy flakes.

The crazy fgen banding that guidance had over us yesterday morning ended up in PA. It at up near Harrisburg. I see reporters of 6-8” around there and there were 3”/hr rates. So the storm had the potential is just shifted it north of us at the last minute

I posted the whole exchange so you can stop this BS nonsense. He made a false statement. Myself and several others corrected him. I have no idea where your personal and intentionally misleading attack came from but knock it off.

Stop it. You weren’t attacked for saying it wasn’t going to snow more. By the tIme you said that most agreed the forecast was too high. Myself and others called you out for false statements you made repeatedly to imply the forecast was never justified. You said models NEVER showed more than a few inches. You said qpf wasn’t trending down. Several people told you that wasn’t true. I posted the 12z NAM, GFS and Euro all showing more snow. Yet you continued to make the same claim again and again!

3.9”. Based on how hard it’s snowing and how much time is left I’d guess my total will be ~4.2”. I cleared a spot so I can judge in the morning because I think I’m done tonight.

Back to moderate. 3.5”. 5 seems like a stretch still but maybe….

Woah calm down and slow your roll skippy. Let’s shoot for Charleston or maybe Columbia. If we’re lucky we can work our way up to Raleigh’s exquisite snow climo! Maybe someday we can even hope to be Richmond! But now I’m dreaming again.

It’s really hard to get snow in Savannah no I mean Washington DC.

Dunno. At 3.4” but it’s really lightened up. Snowing very lightly now. I don’t see any more heavier returns to my west so…

even up here I can’t get below 31, at night in mid Feb in heavy snow from a NS wave at 1100 ft. That’s very telling. It’s barely cold enough here to get good ratios but even here it’s wet snow and probably 15-1 instead of 20-1 if the surface was 28 instead of 31. I bet this is another storm where once I get off my ridge and go down 300 feet they have way less.

Went back to Sn++ 2.75”. It’s been fun the last 90 mins but looking at where the back edge is already it better start snowing like 3”hr+ if I’m getting the 5-8” NWS still says lol. on the pool deck

Even here I’m starting to have some doubts. The last hour was pretty cool with some heavy snow and ratios are definitely good. But it’s back to light snow now and that back edge is racing towards us. Was hopeful the slightly early onset would mean longer duration but alas looks like the end is coming faster also.

Never look at a radar while it’s snowing. Ugh

1” on the board in 50 mins!

Damn the flakes are getting so big I can see them without the light on

Dude that depth map is way low. Places west got 8” where that says 3”. Places in PA are going to get 6-8” where that has 2-3”.

The depth charts will be right when the snow shifts away from you lol. They are always low. But they will be wrong wherever the snow bands do set to. Those depth maps had no more than ~3” anywhere and places have got 6-10” from this storm already. Some places in PA well have 8”+ watch.

That midnight sun angle though

Before the “hrrr great dryening” took over the conversation I was trying to advocate it the surface can just be cold enough rates and ratios could be really good based on the mid levels

There’s houses for sale up here.

You said NEVER… 12z gfs