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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Ya that sounds about right. So your bar is it has to be something that happens once every 2-3 years or you’re disappointed
  2. psuhoffman
    How many 6” snows have you had in the last 10 years?
  3. psuhoffman
    Everyone says “this never happens with rainstorms” but it does. They just don’t notice bc they don’t care.
  4. psuhoffman
    I like that all guidance is leaving the decaying boundary across our area after the initial WAA thump. Right now qpf is paltry but often that ends up being where the best accumulation is.
  5. psuhoffman
  6. psuhoffman
    This x100! It’s 150 hours. A shift like that is noise. There is no way to know exactly where the sharp northern edge will be due to confluence at this range. The euro still has a healthy storm. That’s what matters.
  7. psuhoffman
    I’d rather need less of that than more at this point. The more typical error is to over do an anomaly like they. Needing less of a crazy anomaly is a better place to be.
  8. psuhoffman
    Yup, things have become so fast paced maybe we expect more but the advancement the last 20 years is definitely there. When I used to sit in on forecast discussions as guidance came in at the PSU weather station in the late 90s and early 2000s we didn’t even look at anything past 100 hours. It wasn’t even a thought.
  9. psuhoffman
    “Only 150”. lol. you’re right but it wasn’t long ago 150 was unicorn fantasy land and further than most operational models even went!
  10. psuhoffman
    The late January one that started the crazy stretch was pretty cold.
  11. psuhoffman
    I think it’s going south but it’s not the string out mess it was which is a step in the right direction.
  12. psuhoffman
    Dunno how it ends but gfs is moving towards euro, icon, UK camp early on. Again, the gfs has been pretty awful this fall and winter season with almost every situation I’ve looked at and compared guidance. Doesn’t mean it can’t be right once in a while and we shouldn’t even look at it, but it’s been worse than the euro and even the ggem and uk across the board lately.
  13. psuhoffman
    So are dozens of others that didn’t end up that extreme.
  14. psuhoffman
  15. psuhoffman
    lol. I just said why are you wanting to change anything on a run that gave you 20”! But if storm one becomes a mecs so what. But everything affects everything else so rooting to change a lead wave when that solution lead to 20” 2 days later was odd and risky. That’s all. We have no control so it doesn’t matter.
  16. psuhoffman
    Not bad for the week
  17. psuhoffman
    I’ll take it as an appetizer to kick off the pattern.
  18. psuhoffman
    Ji is right there is definitely potential for the Jan 6 wave to trend south. Slightly less separation between the wave and the 50/50 and it could be a better event. I think the top end potential is lower than the next wave hypothetically but I wouldn’t kick a 4-8” snow out of bed.
  19. psuhoffman
    I’m somewhere over Montana.
  20. psuhoffman
    Yes but people don’t want to hear that. But it’s typically how it goes with blocking.
  21. psuhoffman
    This gfs run has too much blocking day 10-15 and crushes everything. That hasn’t been a typical problem at all recently so let’s wait and see. I’d rather see that than cutters at range.
  22. psuhoffman
    Ggem suppressed for the opposite reason as gfs. It washes out wave 1 which leaves room wave 2 to amplify and it does but without wave 1 it drops the boundary too far south. Both are a typical error at that range from a hit so Im fine with both.
  23. psuhoffman
    But wave 2 dying on the gfs has opened the window behind it. Incoming look day 9! The pattern is loaded. Remember what I said though about it often not being the wave we first identify at range.
  24. psuhoffman
    The biggest issue on gfs is timing. Not enough separation between the two waves. The boundary is close by but the lead wave slowed down 12 hours and really squashes the second. It’s trying to amplify onto the suppressive flow behind wave 1. We need more separation for it to work
  25. psuhoffman
    Anyone upset at this gfs run is lacking perspective. No single run is likely to be 100% accurate at that range or even close. It’s well within a typical expected error of a hit this run. That’s all that matters.
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