psuhoffman

You just got NAMd

I don’t know how much it will juice up but I think for places where the surface temps are below freezing the kuchera is under doing the ratios. The DGZ is plenty cold and saturated. Good lift. That matters more. Yea the surface temps might cut it down from 18-1 to 15-1 but somewhere that gets a combo of both cold enough and best lift will get ~15-1 to 18-1 with .3-.45 qpf that’s my 4-8” max band call right there. Where exactly that ends up is hard to say. But it’s likely near the northern periphery of the higher qpf zone.

As is it’s a Richmond special. But time. It’s still there…

close, so close. A bit more spacing between the waves and this could still be good.

Gefs eps

You would know

My neighbors have chickens. They run around my yard all the time. I’m good

From what I see it’s a noise change from 12z. Maybe slightly dryer but again noise changes.

Well the 18z euro definitely trended not north

But I’m done with worrying about it. I won’t be surprised either way at this point. Was today just a one last fluke tease run on the way to a final rug pull or a real indication? Ehh. I don’t have the patience left to dig into it really. If we get multiple days of improvements and it gets into a more believable range I’ll jump back into it. For now we still have a legit chance for the wave I liked all along if we can get some minor adjustments. After that I’ll let the chips fall where they may.

Today shifted significantly better from yesterdays which were…

Most years I’d be very nervous. But this year there really hasn’t been any north trend once inside 100 hours. The storms that did shift north all did it way before now. Under 48 hours the trend has been south really. Obviously every situation is different but the seasonal trend does matter some.

Thanks but not worth it

I’m pretty sure this will have a zone of 4-8”. Now whether that will end up over us is another issue.

I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others. Kuchera is actually better for this one.

That wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that would jack us

What about the other phone?

no this setup was always way too noisy to likely be a HECS event. The way this evolved was probably one of the best scenarios we could hope for. If this tracks right I really do think a 4-8" event is possible and short of getting lottery level lucky with a very complicated phasing scenario...that's about max potential this could have been IMO

at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60

All the STJ waves that tracked under us and could have been a big snowstorm were too warm

Oh it is, but no matter what Baltimore is only getting 5" because they aren't allowed to have warning events there anymore. @Maestrobjwaknows

check your ruler, you probably just mixed up the metric and standard sides