psuhoffman

You must of slept through the 12z run today. NAM/GFS/Euro all had over 4” for a large part of the area.

That one screwed me over in State College too!

Glad I’m not in Pine Grove anymore. Look at that subsidence just north of that band. That’s going to be the real screw zone.

That happened to me once. Growing up in NJ. Watched this band of snow coming east from PA but it never made it. Front end started to dry up as the front advanced until the back edge caught up to the front end like 1 mile from me and the whole thing dried up.

Some of the hills in the Lebanon area are candidates for the 8”+ jack zone.

I can tell from how it’s accumulating so far ratios here are way over 10-1. Very fluffy. Excellent dendrites.

Y’all weren’t kidding that was fast. Went from nothing to heavy now in 10 mins. Grass has a coating and parts of the driveway are caving. 32/19

It’s over there that’s the back edge

Unfortunately that’s the band I was hopeful we could get under a couple days ago. But that’s been gone for a while. Now I’m just praying I don’t end up in the subsidence between that band and the fgen associated band to the south.

Mid levels were perfect for snow growth

Wtf

Oh I had that duel banding structure in my forecast. I buy that. It’s the general drying at the last minute in less sure of. There will be winners and losers based on meso scale banding though.

Here is the actual exchange, then you don’t have to stand by anything, everyone can see for themselves.

That’s fine but the people here have the right to know the truth. They can go read the other thread and see for themselves that you’re lying.

The trends are what they are but the storm had been over performing in many locations to our west. And I’ve noted several times over the years when guidance pulled this drying up thing right at the last minute and it was wrong. We will know real soon.

If you’re going to reference my post please quote or link it so people can see for themselves. You’re misrepresenting what my exchange with chuck was about. He criticized the NWS not my forecast. The NWS went higher than me. But I felt his attack was unfair. He made several inaccurate statements. He was trying to make a case they had no justification for their high snowfall forecasts and denied models are trending lower with qpf. The NWS made those forecasts this morning based on 12z data that at the time was averaging around .5qpf and trending upward. It’s not fair to use information that came out after they made those forecasts to call them unjustified. He also inexplicably twice claimed guidance never showed more qpf then when I called him out and showed the trends he blew it off and switched to other arguments. Chuck can be brilliant. He can also be infuriating at times. And just because he has issues doesn’t mean he gets to attack someone with misrepresentation or flat out lies and not get called out. Lastly we go back and forth a lot. We have a rapport in the other forum. We often argue but it’s not hostile. I respect him but in this case he was wrong and misrepresenting things in a way unfair to NWS.

34/17 waiting. Radar looks good to me.

The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical.

I live on Dug Hill!

The euro weeklies did. The EMON plots ran through 8/1/2, mostly at low amp but they did back when they looked amazing.

I dunno. We need the PDO to flip that’s for sure because the western pac warm pool, expanded Hadley cell and PDO are all amplifying each other’s effect in an awful feedback loop for our snow prospects. Once the PDO (which is still a cyclical thing that’s the one part of this equation that I can admit is not CC related) flips we can evaluate how much of a problem those other 2 factors (which may be more permanent) are. But we’ve proven that those factors along with the -pdo are pretty much insurmountable. Our goalposts within this current paradigm are completely snowless winters to if we get super lucky and almost everything else that could goes perfectly we can fight our way to a near avg snowfall winter. But I don’t think we can get a truly epic snowy winter of the type we all honestly dream of before each year starts until this current pacific cycle ends.

@Stormchaserchuck1 not everyone bases they’re snowfall forecast on 1984 atari snow depth maps