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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    As is it’s a Richmond special. But time. It’s still there…
  2. psuhoffman
    close, so close. A bit more spacing between the waves and this could still be good.
  3. psuhoffman
    Gefs eps
  4. psuhoffman
  5. psuhoffman
    You would know
  6. psuhoffman
  7. psuhoffman
    My neighbors have chickens. They run around my yard all the time. I’m good
  8. psuhoffman
  9. psuhoffman
    From what I see it’s a noise change from 12z. Maybe slightly dryer but again noise changes.
  10. psuhoffman
    Well the 18z euro definitely trended not north
  11. psuhoffman
    But I’m done with worrying about it. I won’t be surprised either way at this point. Was today just a one last fluke tease run on the way to a final rug pull or a real indication? Ehh. I don’t have the patience left to dig into it really. If we get multiple days of improvements and it gets into a more believable range I’ll jump back into it. For now we still have a legit chance for the wave I liked all along if we can get some minor adjustments. After that I’ll let the chips fall where they may.
  12. psuhoffman
    Today shifted significantly better from yesterdays which were…
  13. psuhoffman
    Most years I’d be very nervous. But this year there really hasn’t been any north trend once inside 100 hours. The storms that did shift north all did it way before now. Under 48 hours the trend has been south really. Obviously every situation is different but the seasonal trend does matter some.
  14. psuhoffman
    Thanks but not worth it
  15. psuhoffman
    I’m pretty sure this will have a zone of 4-8”. Now whether that will end up over us is another issue.
  16. psuhoffman
    I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others. Kuchera is actually better for this one.
  17. psuhoffman
    That wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that would jack us
  18. psuhoffman
    What about the other phone?
  19. psuhoffman
    no this setup was always way too noisy to likely be a HECS event. The way this evolved was probably one of the best scenarios we could hope for. If this tracks right I really do think a 4-8" event is possible and short of getting lottery level lucky with a very complicated phasing scenario...that's about max potential this could have been IMO
  20. psuhoffman
    at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60
  21. psuhoffman
    All the STJ waves that tracked under us and could have been a big snowstorm were too warm
  22. psuhoffman
    Oh it is, but no matter what Baltimore is only getting 5" because they aren't allowed to have warning events there anymore. @Maestrobjwaknows
  23. psuhoffman
    check your ruler, you probably just mixed up the metric and standard sides
  24. psuhoffman
    FWIW over the years I've noticed a tendancy for the NAM to be high on precip when the system involves convection or deep moisture and dry in situations like these.
  25. psuhoffman
    This has sneaky upside. It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS. It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary. Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold. Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm.
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