psuhoffman

But if you look at -QBO Moderate or stronger Nino's there are way less of those "fluke" non snowy outliers. Almost all of them were +QBO. We just wasted a very rare combination that historically is responsible for most of our BIG snowfall seasons. Baltimore averages over 40" in -QBO Nino's. I guess I am not as quick to just chalk off the loss of a rare opportunity for us to have an epic winter. I think the common thread here, and it happened in 2019 also, is that the pacific base state is hostile to the canonical Nino longwave pattern establishing with any consistency. I am not saying all of that is CC related. I think the PDO is a large part of that equation and that is a cyclical thing that we are just stuck in the wrong cycle right now. But we have had way more snow in past -PDO cycles and I think the reason is there are other factors, the warmer waters in general all over, the expanded hadley cells which compresses the jet over the pacific and leads to a more progressive NS and displaced north jet. This can also destructively interfere with blocking and I think it did in both 2019 and this year and is partly to blame for why those years failed to establish canonical nino patterns. Chuck thinks the hadley cell issue is also cyclical. I really hope he is correct. I am more skeptical. I apply basic deductive reasoning here and see how the warmer waters in the pacific would both be related to CC and also cause the shift north in the jet we've observed. But I can't prove it. I've not done the research. I am just using anecdotal observation and deductive reasoning. But I also admit that the PDO could be exacerbating this issue and when that does eventually shift maybe enough of this comes off that we can live with the results. But the problem is we are currently stuck in the cycle that we are, and the PDO is negative, and those other factors are making an already bad cycle even more hostile, and the failure of 2 nino's within this cycle to do anything to adjust the base state in our favor to me indicates we might be up shits creek and cannot expect a truly epic snowy season no matter what the specific pattern drivers are until this current pacific decadal cycle ends. And that may or may not be for a while. It's hard to predict, some of these -PDO cycles have lasted 10 years or so and so maybe this is almost over, but one cycle lasted 25 years and in that case we might have another 15+ years to go. I was hopeful that a strong -qbo nino could countermand this hostile cycle, but it appears it cannot. I'm not sure if I will ever predict above normal snowfall again until this pacific cycle ends. However long that is.

How come lately only ninos fail to produce the historically typical pattern. Nina’s are a lock though.

We don’t always get to decide when we get lucky and wave tracks perfectly across VA. Yea ideally we want it to happen in a cold pattern and typically that’s when we have a better chance since to get a wave under us usually takes a colder regime. But since we rarely are cold anymore more of these opportunities are happening when it’s warm even in dead winter. But we used to be able to eke out snow even in a warm regime if we got a perfect amplified enough wave pass. Feb 1997, my senior year in HS, sticks out. That pattern was garbage. Actually a lot of simularity to now with a ridge in southern Canada and pacific puke zonal airmass. But we got a very similar setup with a perfect stj wave and we got a 4-8” super wet slop snowstorm in northern VA. I lived in Herndon VA then, right next to frying pan park. There were lots of other examples in the case studies. Storms where I went “how the F was that snow”. Nothing about the pattern was any good except the wave pass. That doesn’t seem to work anymore. Lately when we get a perfect track started during a crap pattern it’s just too warm. The track is irrelevant unless there is a cold regime in place. And that even more a problem since for the last 8 years warm patterns have outnumbered cold ones significantly.

I think wet snow that melts quick is likely the best we can do. The pattern is actually ok. I don’t agree they were doomed. But there is no true cold anywhere outside Siberia. The oceans on both sides of us are on fire. Even when guidance had a mega block temps were meh. We can get perfect track waves, and we can get an airmass that’s a few degrees colder than today which would mean it’s possible to get the results places just to our north got, snow. But even here most of the 6” I got this morning is gone now. There won’t be any true arctic air. So as soon as the snow ends and the sun comes out it’s gonna melt. If that reality ruins it you probably best move on. I’m just being realistic here, not trying to be a dick.

So if a strong Nino can’t countermand the pac base state what can?

To be fair I don’t think the solid mets were excited because of the models. They were excited because the top analogs to our current enso are some of our snowiest winters ever! The fact the models supported that was just an ancillary piece.

It was better, WW is just WW

It will juice up some. Focus on the track

No I hid him in my basement.

so fluffy clouds... JK man you have been on point, if you can get past the shroom inspired moments

@WxUSAFthank you

I agree with the macro reason you're both citing. But I think something larger is at play and I don't mean CC directly. The exact same thing happened in 2019 and I think its the same reason. Yea wave breaking blocking is tenuous but for months all long range guidance got to the same end result, just sometimes in slightly different ways. Some had a scandy ridge retro. Some wave breaking. Some sooner some a week later...but all by mid February had the same epic look. I don't think we can blame the failure of one cutter for the whole thing falling apart because for months guidance got to the end result in different ways. Had the pattern idea been correct the next wave should have done it. There was something larger scale than an individual wave break they were seeing in the global divers leading them to expect what we all expected. The reason I fell for is so hard was it fit all the analogs to this winter. I wasn't basing my expectations on the models, the models were matching my expectations. In the end I think we both fell victim to the same thing, which is the pacific base state is not conducive the the canonical nino response, no matter how strong the nino is. Even in Dec and Jan when we got legit blocking the NS was way more active than in a typical nino. It's one reason the January snowy period features 2 rather mundane snow events but not more. The NS was in the way all the time. ANd in the end the faster than expected NS, which is tied to the pacific base state lately, ran interference in the blocking and we got a muted pattern response. We still might get snow but we didn't get the epic pattern. We could debate how much this is linked to CC, and that comes down to how much the current pacific base state with a persistent western pac warm pool, expanded hadley cell and nina ish MJO dominance is CC v cyclical. The PDO is part of this and that part most certainly is cyclical so some of this is most certainly NOT CC. I think those other 2 factors are CC related...but I can't prove it. We don't have to fight about that though, because regardless of the underlying cause and how permanent v cyclical it is...the effects on recent winters including this one is the same.

is there a way to move my last reply to Scarlet over to the new thread?

I agree with Chuck here. This exact same thing happened in 2019. All through the fall and early winter the guidance advertised some epic pattern starting mid January. It held until it was on the doorstep. It got to about day 10 then suddenly and epically collapsed. And similar to this year, we did get some snow that winter and so it wasn't a complete disaster. But the epic winter idea on guidance never came about. And it was mostly for the same reason, the epic looking blocking collapsed. And there was a SSW that winter also! A lot of similarities. The consensus after that year was that the weak nino wasn't able to overcome the strong -PDO pacific base state. As for why the modeling failed...it was discussed then that the long range guidance is heavily weighted towards the large scale pattern drivers. The long range guidance saw the same things we saw when many of us made snowy winter forecasts. They guidance saw a basin wide nino, a -QBO, weak SPV, and expected the canonical atmospheric response to those factors and predicted it. They did the same thing we did when we made our winter forecasts in October and November. This year many, including myself, discounted a repeat of 2019 because we rationalized that 2019 was a weak nino and this was a strong nino. But in the end maybe the easiest explanation is that even this strong nino was unable to countermand the base state. The depressing part of that is if a strong nino cannot overcome this nina ish pacific base state then probably nothing can and we simply need to wait for this whole pacific cycle to end, however long that may take, be it a few more years or maybe another decade, to expect a truly BIG snowfall year like the one some of us predicted this winter.

I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.

About us getting less snow? Other than adjust expectations or moving north, nothing. I mean in the grand scheme of things this isn't that important. But wanting to understand the why and how of it doesn't mean we can necessarily do anything. Sometimes knowledge is just for knowledge sake. Now....if you are talking about....NOPE not taking that bait.

legitimately debatable, by the JFM trimonthly it was enso neutral. 2017 actually was even more a case for neutral as the DJF was neutral the nina that year died in the fall. So maybe I will give you 2023 but then I take 2017 as neutral. Either way my point is we were not in a nina the whole last 8 years, yet it hasn't mattered much wrt the pattern. Chuck is correct that the PDO is really the underlying cyclical driver here, but that alone also is not an explanation for the record low snowfall and warm temps as we've had -PDO cycles before that were not this warm and snowless. Actually none were this warm and snowless!

I honestly do not understand the take I often observe that goes like "god put it here so obviously we can't destroy it" or something to that general effect... no one treats their own stuff that way. No one throws their TV on the floor and expects it to be ok because God put it there so.... I really really honestly don't get where that attitude comes from.

Honestly I don't know. And it's impossible to attribute any one specific event to CC or most other factors with certainty. My case is mostly built on an accumulation and preponderance of evidence over time. But focusing on this particular most recent break down of an epic pattern on guidance for months until it was on our door step. Two things happened that I saw that seem could be related. The MJO after weeks and weeks of being projected by the long range guidance of going into the cold phases suddenly collapsed. The wave died before really getting into 8/1/2 and there is some weak convection in the MC continent and just east of there going off next week. This interferes with what little weak convection is in 1/2 and killed the cold singal from MJO forcing. How much that impacted it, I dont know. But it seems going from a cold signal to not on the MJO COULD have had something to do with it. Another factor I think is the progressive NS. The blocking was partially a product of wave breaking. Not all blocking comes about the same way, and wave breaking is one legit way to get a block, and often when the SPV is weak once you get to blocking it sustains itself. But wave breaking requires the waves to amplify and slow down and pump the ridge and in the end each wave ended up more progressive and failed to initiate the block. They initiated ridging but not enough to become the retrograding cut off block that guidance was advertising. That more than anything else was the reason for the collapse of the "epic" pattern. I've said my peace regarding what I think may or may not be a common thread here and there is no reason to speculate on what may have caused those two factors because the truth is I don't know I am just speculating.

In all seriousness we can't be 100% sure next winter is going to suck. 1996 happened, although there was a -QBO that winter and we ended up with massive blocking which is associated with a -QBO. 2000 was pretty awesome for 10 days! 2006 wasn't bad and had one great storm that maybe we would have enjoyed more if everyone wasn't obsessed with how fast it melted for some reason. Early December featured some nice snows also. 2011 wasn't too awful if you can get past Boxing day. I personally enjoyed 2018. BUT... given the solar, QBO, enso, AND recent temperature trends and the raging warm waters everywhere....if we are being honest the odds favor another 2020, 2023 type outcome. But that doesn't mean there is 0 chance things turn out better, and even if we did go that route there were a couple periods where it was possible we could have got more snow even in those winters and we just didn't get lucky. So if you want to be optimistic go for it. Just be aware that the odds to not favor a good outcome.

It's been better than the GFS lol

I can agree that was uncalled for and insensitive, and I am times myself can be insensitive, but objectively the best way you can stop it is to have thicker skin and ignore it, and be less reactive to everything. I should take my own advice.

We were discussing snow, and how the FACT that it's been warmer lately is affecting our snowfall. You are the one that brought up all that other crap. Absolutely no one else mentioned anything to do with any of that.

The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO, the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently.