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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    I think the question to "why" is legitimate though.
  2. psuhoffman
    About us getting less snow? Other than adjust expectations or moving north, nothing. I mean in the grand scheme of things this isn't that important. But wanting to understand the why and how of it doesn't mean we can necessarily do anything. Sometimes knowledge is just for knowledge sake. Now....if you are talking about....NOPE not taking that bait.
  3. psuhoffman
    legitimately debatable, by the JFM trimonthly it was enso neutral. 2017 actually was even more a case for neutral as the DJF was neutral the nina that year died in the fall. So maybe I will give you 2023 but then I take 2017 as neutral. Either way my point is we were not in a nina the whole last 8 years, yet it hasn't mattered much wrt the pattern. Chuck is correct that the PDO is really the underlying cyclical driver here, but that alone also is not an explanation for the record low snowfall and warm temps as we've had -PDO cycles before that were not this warm and snowless. Actually none were this warm and snowless!
  4. psuhoffman
    I honestly do not understand the take I often observe that goes like "god put it here so obviously we can't destroy it" or something to that general effect... no one treats their own stuff that way. No one throws their TV on the floor and expects it to be ok because God put it there so.... I really really honestly don't get where that attitude comes from.
  5. psuhoffman
    Honestly I don't know. And it's impossible to attribute any one specific event to CC or most other factors with certainty. My case is mostly built on an accumulation and preponderance of evidence over time. But focusing on this particular most recent break down of an epic pattern on guidance for months until it was on our door step. Two things happened that I saw that seem could be related. The MJO after weeks and weeks of being projected by the long range guidance of going into the cold phases suddenly collapsed. The wave died before really getting into 8/1/2 and there is some weak convection in the MC continent and just east of there going off next week. This interferes with what little weak convection is in 1/2 and killed the cold singal from MJO forcing. How much that impacted it, I dont know. But it seems going from a cold signal to not on the MJO COULD have had something to do with it. Another factor I think is the progressive NS. The blocking was partially a product of wave breaking. Not all blocking comes about the same way, and wave breaking is one legit way to get a block, and often when the SPV is weak once you get to blocking it sustains itself. But wave breaking requires the waves to amplify and slow down and pump the ridge and in the end each wave ended up more progressive and failed to initiate the block. They initiated ridging but not enough to become the retrograding cut off block that guidance was advertising. That more than anything else was the reason for the collapse of the "epic" pattern. I've said my peace regarding what I think may or may not be a common thread here and there is no reason to speculate on what may have caused those two factors because the truth is I don't know I am just speculating.
  6. psuhoffman
    In all seriousness we can't be 100% sure next winter is going to suck. 1996 happened, although there was a -QBO that winter and we ended up with massive blocking which is associated with a -QBO. 2000 was pretty awesome for 10 days! 2006 wasn't bad and had one great storm that maybe we would have enjoyed more if everyone wasn't obsessed with how fast it melted for some reason. Early December featured some nice snows also. 2011 wasn't too awful if you can get past Boxing day. I personally enjoyed 2018. BUT... given the solar, QBO, enso, AND recent temperature trends and the raging warm waters everywhere....if we are being honest the odds favor another 2020, 2023 type outcome. But that doesn't mean there is 0 chance things turn out better, and even if we did go that route there were a couple periods where it was possible we could have got more snow even in those winters and we just didn't get lucky. So if you want to be optimistic go for it. Just be aware that the odds to not favor a good outcome.
  7. psuhoffman
    It's been better than the GFS lol
  8. psuhoffman
    I can agree that was uncalled for and insensitive, and I am times myself can be insensitive, but objectively the best way you can stop it is to have thicker skin and ignore it, and be less reactive to everything. I should take my own advice.
  9. psuhoffman
    We were discussing snow, and how the FACT that it's been warmer lately is affecting our snowfall. You are the one that brought up all that other crap. Absolutely no one else mentioned anything to do with any of that.
  10. psuhoffman
    The 1960's were a -PDO, 2017-2019 were a positive PDO, the PDO alone is not an excuse for what is happening recently.
  11. psuhoffman
    You just said what I said but in a different way
  12. psuhoffman
    2019 was a nino, 2020 was enso neutral,2023 was neutral, this year is a nino. Yes the atmosphere has been in a nina like base state for 8 years abut we have not actually been in a nina for 8 straight years. We have had 4 ninas in 8 years. That excuse is starting to wear thin with me.
  13. psuhoffman
    This part seems topical... and the truth is I just don't know, which is why I continue to analyze it and try to compile evidence one way or the other. I am pretty sure the data supports that we have warmed and it has decreased our snow climo compared to 50 or 20 years ago. But what I don't know with any conviction how much. I also believe we are in a shorter term (decadal maybe) bad cycle and we will likely have a better period at some point in the near (hopefully) future. But how soon? And how much better? Again I don't know, which is why I continue to analyze. But recent evidence is unfortunately hinting that maybe its worse than I thought. And this is where this relates to the discussion about RIGHT NOW and this winter. This year is exhibit A, Baltimore averages over 40" of snow in -QBO El Ninos' and it looks like we aren't going to get close to those numbers unfortunately. Maybe this year is just a fluke as @Bob Chillbelieves. That is entirely possible. I respect him tremendously and frankly learned a lot from him, he was doing this with expertise before I knew what I was doing! But I don't know. I am just a little more pessimistic about how much of it is a "fluke" that's all.
  14. psuhoffman
    my bad
  15. psuhoffman
    So we need to all use less fabric softener, WTF are you saying? Can you translate that please.
  16. psuhoffman
    I don't intend to be hostile, just being direct, but I can see how its interpreted that way. As for why repeat myself, because new evidence was offered. And in this case there was a well thought out and good point made by someone I respect a lot, but I felt there was a logical refutation to that point and it was worth making it to add to the discourse. Respectfully, you could say the same thing regarding repetitive posts everytime the ensembles show some -3 stdv block and we get excited and post about how it looks favorable for snow. Those are the same posts so why do we make them? Because it's a new example so its technically new analysis. But if your point is this topic has been proven and needs no further evidence or argumentation, I might even agree with that, but some on here definitely do not, and I admit I am argumentative, I am a former debate coach lol, so here we are. I will refrain from further response to this topic in this thread though since now we arent talking about the pattern we are talking about talking about the pattern which is off topic and I will reply there.
  17. psuhoffman
    No, I've said many times maybe we flip to a better long term cycle at some point. But were now going on 8 years of total worse snow period ever for our area, and its actually 13 years we've been in a very bad period, it was just interrupted briefly by 2014-2016. But on the whole DC has had an identical snow climo to NC since 2010. 13 years is a long freaking time. This horrible dreg period has now encompassed a huge portion of my adult life. So when I say the trends are troubling they are, regardless of if at some possible future date that I may or may not even be here for, they flip back to a snowier cycle...I am more concerned with the cycle I currently have to live through.
  18. psuhoffman
    That STT makes me want to vomit. I guess we could hold onto 1996 and the thought it has to happen again someday. Ya I know... but for those that aren't ready to toss next year that's all you can do, there is absolutely no objective evidence that would suggest anything other then a crap warm very low snowfall winter next year ATT.
  19. psuhoffman
    I didn't cancel winter. I still think we see more snow this year. If my post responding to what Bob said didn't belong in here than his post didn't either because both were about the exact same topic, only he took one angle and I took another less optimistic one. But both were about the exact same thing! IMO this is silly. Pointing out factual observations and trends and how they impact our weather is not depressing to me. The fact its not snowing more is depressing maybe, me analyzing why is just analysis. It doesn't change how much it's snowing. I can see how MAYBE, if you are trying to deny the obvious because the thought of less snow is depressing my posts could be unpleasant. I am throwing something in their face that they would rather not be true. But I am not going to avoid scientific analysis because the results might not be what some want. And may I offer a counter point. If just the thought of less snow bothers them so much...then ultimately not talking about it won't make them happy for long. They would be better off accepting it fully and if snow matters that much that thinking of less snow upsets them emotionally they probably should move somewhere that will get more snow. Snow is not going extinct in our lifetime, it's just getting less prevalent in this specific location because we were already pretty close to the southern extent of where it snowed regularly even during colder periods. We had less wiggle room for warming that places further north. Even where I live would probably make most in this forum happy 90% of winters if they simply kept the same expectations that they have for DC and Baltimore but lived here. I fail to see how the better solution is to live in denial and try to avoid any talk about less snow. That seems less healthy to me.
  20. psuhoffman
    It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good. Analysis is analysis. When something is good I say it. When something is bad I say it. I don't blow smoke. I don't stick my head in the sand. And I call em like I see em. Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts. I won't be offended.
  21. psuhoffman
    @Bob Chill everything you said regarding this winter is 100% accurate. And in a vacuum I agree. The problem is when you zoom out and take the last 5 years as a whole, things start to become a little more alarming. It's like a coach who at the end of a disappointing game where one of his players fumbles the ball is saying how, its just one game and flukes happen and yada yada yada...and that is totally true and you would never bench a player for one fumble. But if it happens 5 games in a row... I ran the numbers out of morbid self loathing a couple weeks ago. Since 2010 DC has had the snow climo of central NC. Since 2016 DC has had the snow climo of central SC! The main reason for this is its just been too warm. Warm months are outnumbering cold ones 3-1. Perfect track waves are tending to end up rain more and more often. It's too warm is the common thread. Yes we can debate the different specific reason one week was too warm v another. Maybe one time the NAO was positive. Another time the pac was crap. Many times its been both! But sometimes the patterns been fine and it was still to warm lol. Again, we can zoom in and get stuck in the details and find legitimate specific reasons why one period or another didnt work and find ways a storm could have been snow if this that or the other had gone better. But zoom out and take everything holistically and I think the trends are more troubling and have a common theme.
  22. psuhoffman
    I chased the storm too, all the way from my bed to my yard.
  23. psuhoffman
    It's the wave after the PD3 wave. But different guidance differs on exactly when that is, based on how progressive they are. Also some runs have ejected two weaker waves instead of one stronger one in that timeframe. But sometime in the Feb 22-24 timeframe.
  24. psuhoffman
  25. psuhoffman
    This goes in my book. DC/Baltimore should have been able to squeeze some accumulating snow out of this on Feb 13th... Again, this one storm taken alone means absolutely nothing. There have always been disappointing outcomes through history. Yes I could find a few nice snow solutions that look like this but we could find plenty of times it was too warm also. But it's the fact these keep stacking up. It's becoming VERY rare that these marginal setups break snow instead of rain anymore for DC and Baltimore. We are only going to get so many perfect wave passes like this...when we start wasting 2-3 maybe even 4 of them on rain every winter...well.... that's how you end up where we are.
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