Jump to content

psuhoffman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,411

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    I said this earlier. That PD weekend storm on the gfs is not likely to happen that way. And we don’t even want it too. The gfs is all alone with a wacky progression of the Atlantic blocking. Last few runs it left it in Scandanavia and that’s why it was able to bring the PD storm up. But that’s also why it was warm and looking at the thermals those snow solutions were precarious at best. This run it slits the block and is just wackadoo in some of its wave breaking. No way it’s close to right. Seriously pull up the N Hemisphere h5 and loop it. It’s nuts. We simply want to gfs to be wrong. Which it probably is. The way we want to possibly get a PD storm is for that NS wave to be further southwest and phase in. If it’s amplifying to our north which is what the GFS did to relax the flow and get the stj to come north, it means something’s gone horribly wrong in the whole pattern! Let’s just toss that crazy crap and assume the gfs is wrong. It was wrong with that snowstorm the last 3 runs (at least in the way it got to it) and it’s wrong now with the rainstorm. All other guidance does keep the Scandinavian block intact and retrogrades it into Greenland. All other guidance is currently suppressed for the PD threat.
  2. psuhoffman
    This is day 10-15 eps Seriously how good of a pattern do you think we need? This is a serious question. Because sure there are some super minor things I could be hyper critical of. Sure ideally I’d move the pac trough west just a smidge. I guess the -nao could be -3 stdv instead of just -2. But my god that’s way more good than bad. It’s the best pattern we’ve had in many years. It’s probably a better pattern than we see at all at any time in 90% of winters. And you’re like “meh” it’s not good enough. So seriously. Do you think we’re like Atlanta now and we need like a once in 100 year pattern to get a ton of snow or something? It’s not supposed to be this F$&@?#% hard!
  3. psuhoffman
    @stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off.
  4. psuhoffman
    I still think around the 22-24 is the best chance. But the 20th has more of a chance with the slightly less suppressive trend lately.
  5. psuhoffman
    The gfs has temp issues because it doesn’t retrograde the Scandinavian block into the nao as much and instead keep rotating NS systems to our north. If that’s correct we would have issues but I’m not taking a model that’s running in last place in verification scores. You know how we joke about the icon. I saw a chart a couple months ago where the gfs was running below the icon!
  6. psuhoffman
    If I want to be super picky the one thing I don’t like is that the NS wants to dive in right on top of us it seems. Further west and it could phase in. East and it’s out of the way. But if NS waves keep diving into the lakes it’s more complicated.
  7. psuhoffman
    We’re at the range guidance usually starts to get the general idea. And I think it’s that this is cutting to our northwest. Makes sense. There is absolutely no cold in front of it. The only shot we had was that lead wave to be stronger and get out in front and then maybe…without that we’re dead here. Better opportunities await.
  8. psuhoffman
    It’s not going to be suppressed for 3 weeks
  9. psuhoffman
    If you didn’t read it then how did you know what it was about?
  10. psuhoffman
    Congratulations
  11. psuhoffman
    Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually. Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these! And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit. Throw in maybe one or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll.
  12. psuhoffman
    I had a suspicion I liked the op progression a lot better.
  13. psuhoffman
    Gefs finally fully on board with mega block
  14. psuhoffman
    Whether it’s a hit or not I like the changes over the top. It makes a colder solution possible.
  15. psuhoffman
    Plus, a temporary pna ridge between all those pacific waves crashing on will get washed out in the means at that range. There would be some ridging between waves. We don’t need a lot. With that look up top we don’t even want a lot.
  16. psuhoffman
    On the other hand, if at the end of this pattern the h5 matches 1958 and 2010 but all we got was a bunch of rain from perfect wave passes then we know and I can stop wasting my time. I firmly do not believe that’s how this is gonna go down though.
  17. psuhoffman
    And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder.
  18. psuhoffman
    Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed. From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol.
  19. psuhoffman
    On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us.
  20. psuhoffman
    My thoughts The initial wave will have thermal issues. We knew Feb 10-15 was the transition and anything in that window would have problems due to the trash antecedent airmass. We will need a perfect synoptic evolution for that to work. A NS lead wave to drop the boundary perhaps. Luck with a timed high. Even then we probably need a thump. It’s a shot but a half court one. Next threat is PD weekend. We likely need a phase. The block is peaking. The NS is diving over top us. A stj wave probably can’t amplify enough in that flow alone. We would need a NS wave to dig enough to our west and phase. It’s a big dog potential but needing the phase lowers the probability is comes off. I still think our best shot at a big storm comes after, in that Feb 22 on range as the block retrogrades and inevitably relaxes some. This is when a stj wave could amplify by itself and with the NS relaxing but leaving the thermal boundary south initially that’s our best simplest window.
  21. psuhoffman
    But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes
  22. psuhoffman
    The op gfs finally got on board with the progression the ensembles have had in the long range.
  23. psuhoffman
    Are we sure they aren’t the same person?
  24. psuhoffman
    We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details.
  25. psuhoffman
    Don’t bait me
×
×
  • Create New...