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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    I expect a mix of March 58 Feb 83 and 2010 but the intensity of 1993.
  2. psuhoffman
    The first pulse of the -nao looks to peak around Feb 16-20. Our best chances as a big storm typically come as the nao starts to relax off a peak. Also it often takes a couple waves to carve out the trough into our ideal configuration. @Bob Chill likes to post on that concept. He explains it better than me. This is all very very general pattern progression tea leaf reading here though. Don’t get hung up on it too much. I’m just laying out based on what I’m seeing now the general progression might go. And don’t fret about Feb 24 v Feb 18. I promise you Baltimores climo doesn’t significantly change in those few days. Baltimore has had numerous 10” storms in March and a 20” storm March 30. We’ve missed a couple HECS storms to our south after those dates. I promise you of the perfect setup comes along Baltimore can get a huge freaking snowstorm the last week of February and even early March. It’s simply small sample size and random chance that there hasn’t been an hecs yet during that week.
  3. psuhoffman
    Screw that one of my favorite non HECS storms was the March 20 2018 storm. I’ll take snow on July 4 if that’s when I can get it. People around here who are picky about when it snows might need a smack upside the head to remind them where we live.
  4. psuhoffman
    The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match. It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo.
  5. psuhoffman
    For the record the control which produced that 7 day mean I posted does snow on us 3 times. One MECS and 2 SECS level events.
  6. psuhoffman
    If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm. I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised. I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck.
  7. psuhoffman
    I am not being snarky, I am genuinely curious how you think we should talk about the long range then? I have no issue with your methodologies but as far as I know none of them are helpful with diagnosing long range patterns. Pressure differences between DC and Pitt aren't going to help us glean anything about something 2-3 weeks away. So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered?
  8. psuhoffman
    Yea. I moved it over to the new thread. But holy crap
  9. psuhoffman
    Holy moly
  10. psuhoffman
    Then if you believe both extended ensemble systems the whole pattern recycles with a second deep blocking cycle and another very strong storm signal centered in early March.
  11. psuhoffman
    I think there are going to be multiple good threats but looking at the way the pattern is progressing I think our best chance at a MECS+ storm might be centered within a couple days either side of Feb 24th.
  12. psuhoffman
    Perhaps this is a warmer muted version of 2010 but displaced a bit later. We had that 3 week dead period after the cold/snowy mid Dec to early Jan in 2010.
  13. psuhoffman
    Ya everything’s on track. Everything’s been said. Feb 10-15 is the transition period. Gfs just showed how it’s possible to score in that window but the wave on the gfs is actually the wave break that tanks the nao and sets off an even better look after. From Feb 15 probably well into March we are looking at what is the absolute best long wave pattern for mid Atlantic snow that there is. We are going to be tracking multiple threats soon. I’m sure of it. We just have to be patient and wait for things to get into range.
  14. psuhoffman
    Oh, and just in case the GFS is actually correct, letting ya know now I will not be on here posting during that deform band that drops 12" in 6 hours over me, I will be out playing in it.
  15. psuhoffman
    You all know I will be the first to hit the red button when I think its warranted, but I was getting a big old laugh at all the freak outs the last couple days which IMO was simply impatience induced.
  16. psuhoffman
    Obviously this specific threat is unlikely to hit in this exact way, but it was a pretty classic nino way to score, split flow, cut off system crashes into southern CA and slides across the CONUS under the canada ridging.
  17. psuhoffman
    The latest upgrade of the op euro has been referred to as the "hi res" there is a lower res version run but you rarely see it. The control and op are usually almost the same, its just the control goes out to 15 days so those clowns use the day 12 stuff from the control. I really hope so, the only thing I would hate about this change is that frankly the op euro is the best "high res short range" model also. I know people like to say "time to start using the high res models" but most of those CAM's suck for snowstorms and the euro is still the best for getting the main idea even at 24-48 hours. Not having that high resolution op would be a big loss imo
  18. psuhoffman
    If there is no operational to run, why wouldn't the ensembles then begin to come out around 1pm? The reason for the delay in the ensembles is the systems are running the op first. Without that they can simply start the ensemble system.
  19. psuhoffman
  20. psuhoffman
    Gefs is having a men’s warehouse run.
  21. psuhoffman
    18z gefs is speeding up the progression by about a day
  22. psuhoffman
    My favorite time to analyze is maybe 1-3 days before a storm. When the storm is pretty much imminent and we’re just pinning down the details and trying to analyze not if but how much! Sometimes during a long duration event I’ll post if I see something of interest. A feature that might affect banding for example. But for the most part once it’s snowing I want to enjoy the snow not be online. It’s not like I was filling up the long range thread either. I made a few posts in the observation thread. And a couple on the long range. I wasn’t totally gone. I even saw the posts wondering where I was. I was outside in the snow is where I was. That’s my preference.
  23. psuhoffman
    I’ll take my chance on a better threat
  24. psuhoffman
    I was playing in the snow with my children! Then I got the flu and almost died. Sorry lol
  25. psuhoffman
    1942. But…there is one group here that apparently has decided it can’t snow anymore before January and now they want to toss after Feb 20 then I say “it’s getting harder” and another group wants to crucify me. Which is it. We can’t start tossing a freaking HUGE portion of our historical potential snow climo then at the same time act like everything is fine and we will somehow get the same snow results compressed into 6 weeks that we used to expect spread out over 12 weeks.
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