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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder.
  2. psuhoffman
    Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed. From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol.
  3. psuhoffman
    On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us.
  4. psuhoffman
    My thoughts The initial wave will have thermal issues. We knew Feb 10-15 was the transition and anything in that window would have problems due to the trash antecedent airmass. We will need a perfect synoptic evolution for that to work. A NS lead wave to drop the boundary perhaps. Luck with a timed high. Even then we probably need a thump. It’s a shot but a half court one. Next threat is PD weekend. We likely need a phase. The block is peaking. The NS is diving over top us. A stj wave probably can’t amplify enough in that flow alone. We would need a NS wave to dig enough to our west and phase. It’s a big dog potential but needing the phase lowers the probability is comes off. I still think our best shot at a big storm comes after, in that Feb 22 on range as the block retrogrades and inevitably relaxes some. This is when a stj wave could amplify by itself and with the NS relaxing but leaving the thermal boundary south initially that’s our best simplest window.
  5. psuhoffman
    But it has the look of “incoming” behind it as the flow relaxes
  6. psuhoffman
    The op gfs finally got on board with the progression the ensembles have had in the long range.
  7. psuhoffman
    Are we sure they aren’t the same person?
  8. psuhoffman
    We need a phase between the NS and STJ wave for the PD weekend threat to work. Gfs keeps missing the phase. Other guidance isn’t really in range yet. We’ll see but it’s a little more complicated because the flow is way too suppressive without a phase to work. The STJ wave won’t be able to do it alone. Way too early though for phase details.
  9. psuhoffman
    Don’t bait me
  10. psuhoffman
    They won’t be wrong. There will be a “major east coast snowstorm”. Even if we didn’t have a good pattern calling for one snowstorm (and what’s major anyways?) between Feb 15 and the rest of winter anywhere along the entire east coast (does upstate Maine count?) lol, isn’t exactly a bold statement. You have to be careful with these national people. They play these games with vague statements over broad geographical areas to verify anything. Not all. There are some great meteorologist. Then there is this crap.
  11. psuhoffman
    As if we wouldn’t all stay up all night anyways
  12. psuhoffman
    Those are our best storms. When a wave tries to come at us from the SW but hits the brick wall of confluence from a block.
  13. psuhoffman
    This is probably better indicative with temps. But still noice
  14. psuhoffman
    Hmm
  15. psuhoffman
    Baltimore has had a lot of 10”+ storms late Feb and March.
  16. psuhoffman
    I think the extremely warm waters in the western pacific ran interference as the mjo wave propagates through. The spike and delay there was problematic because that forcing correlates with a positive nao. But if we look at the winter as a whole perhaps we are on a 2010 type trajectory just warmer and displaced about 3 weeks later. Obviously we didn’t get a hecs from the first block but we did get two secs and snow on snow. The relax was worse due to a warmer overall thermal profile now v 2010 and the west pac issue but it’s following a similar trajectory and h5 pattern. 2010 was very high on my analogs list when I did the numbers. But no two years are the same. So it’s not shocking if there are similarities but perhaps this yea is warmer overall and the timing is a few weeks off. The progression similarities to 2010 are pretty amazing. Also the way the SPV took repeated hits is similar. The next 5 days looks similar in the progression to Jan 17-23 2010 with a southern Canada ridge and trough in the west and Atlantic the similarities continue as the pacific waves start to undercut the ridge and it pulls north. This was Jan 23-27 2010 And the end result Jan 28-31 2010 and eps projected We got lucky in 2010 that we got hit immediately with 2 waves before the Feb 5 Hecs. But I wonder if this year being warmer might be an issue if we get a wave around Feb 12-15. Then for a few days as the nao peaks we probably see suppression. But it’s not out of the question we get lucky again and something pops immediately but the best chances of a big storm if we play this progression out would be Feb 22-March 7. That’s when we would be in the period that correlates with Feb 5-Feb 20 2010. People forget we missed getting a third big storm by a cows fart later that Feb.
  17. psuhoffman
    @Bob Chill I think this first block peaks around Feb 20. How long after becomes our window depends on how it fades and the configuration. The strong and in the process of coupling again Nino and currently tanking soi lead me to believe things line up sooner rather than later. That’s why I think a few days after the Feb 20 peak could offer a chance. I think we will bet a continuous stream of strong pacific waves coming across. We just need the flow to relax enough to not squash one of them. IMO this pattern (because of the pacific look) is going to be a ticking time bomb. Yea we might see one two even three waves get squashed. But sooner or later the flow will relax just enough. We just need one flush hit.
  18. psuhoffman
    This is the mean precip for the period I’m targeting the last week of Feb. 22-29. I like this look. You’re not wrong about the first week of March though, this looks even better lol.
  19. psuhoffman
    One flaw in his probabilities is he uses all Greenland high regimes which if you believe (as I know you do) that Ninos are different and special skews the data. I guarantee you our probabilities of a big snow are higher than those numbers in a Nino blocking regime. However what he is doing is probably a smart play. People are all over the snow angle. But especially for NYC the odds of a lot of snow are maybe only 50%. They could be north of the max. They need a shit ton just to get to average. They missed most of the snow we got last month. Odds are decent that get snow but not enough there to recover. And I know from experience NYC snow weenies are a picky crowd. If they get say 15” the rest of the way they will consider this year a total epic fail. So maybe he is angling himself for the win here by playing the other side.
  20. psuhoffman
    This looks beautiful but it’s also suppressive right there. We might need that beast of a block to retro and weaken some. That’s why Feb 22-25 has been and continues to be the best window. Nothing has changed at all. We can snow from one of the waves before. But early on Feb 12-16 temps could be an issue during the transition week. Then from Feb 17-22 suppression could be an issue. Our best chance at a big storm is as the first wave (I think we get multiple pulses and chances with blocking now until late March) fades some and allows one of the pacific waves to amplify.
  21. psuhoffman
    I’ve offered to host chasers before
  22. psuhoffman
    I am
  23. psuhoffman
    Not if you think about what it takes to get a hecs. To get 20” we need a lot of WAA. We’re too far SW to get that much from a coastal CCB like NYC and Bos can sometimes. Coastal simply aren’t developed and intense enough by our latitude to get those kinds of totally purely from the CCB like further north. I’m not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. To get hecs totals here we need WAA precip in advance of the coastal. Ideally we even want the wave to try to cut to our west and throw a crap ton of gulf moisture at us. But the problem is we need it not to cut. We need it to start west so that we get gulf moisture fetch thrown at us but we need the wave to hit a brick wall and be forced to transfer under us. The only mechanism to do that is a coupled nao block with 50/50 low. Sometimes the wave might only have an inverted trough attached to an anchor NS upper feature like 1996. But we need a sw flow of gulf moisture ahead of the eventual coastal and the only way out thermals can survive that is with a stout block.
  24. psuhoffman
    Those numbers are probably a lot higher in a Nino.
  25. psuhoffman
    Yea we might have to wait for the blocking to start to retro and relax some.
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