psuhoffman

The latest upgrade of the op euro has been referred to as the "hi res" there is a lower res version run but you rarely see it. The control and op are usually almost the same, its just the control goes out to 15 days so those clowns use the day 12 stuff from the control. I really hope so, the only thing I would hate about this change is that frankly the op euro is the best "high res short range" model also. I know people like to say "time to start using the high res models" but most of those CAM's suck for snowstorms and the euro is still the best for getting the main idea even at 24-48 hours. Not having that high resolution op would be a big loss imo

If there is no operational to run, why wouldn't the ensembles then begin to come out around 1pm? The reason for the delay in the ensembles is the systems are running the op first. Without that they can simply start the ensemble system.

Gefs is having a men’s warehouse run.

18z gefs is speeding up the progression by about a day

My favorite time to analyze is maybe 1-3 days before a storm. When the storm is pretty much imminent and we’re just pinning down the details and trying to analyze not if but how much! Sometimes during a long duration event I’ll post if I see something of interest. A feature that might affect banding for example. But for the most part once it’s snowing I want to enjoy the snow not be online. It’s not like I was filling up the long range thread either. I made a few posts in the observation thread. And a couple on the long range. I wasn’t totally gone. I even saw the posts wondering where I was. I was outside in the snow is where I was. That’s my preference.

I’ll take my chance on a better threat

I was playing in the snow with my children! Then I got the flu and almost died. Sorry lol

1942. But…there is one group here that apparently has decided it can’t snow anymore before January and now they want to toss after Feb 20 then I say “it’s getting harder” and another group wants to crucify me. Which is it. We can’t start tossing a freaking HUGE portion of our historical potential snow climo then at the same time act like everything is fine and we will somehow get the same snow results compressed into 6 weeks that we used to expect spread out over 12 weeks.

You’re wrong about what I like. The only reason I’m so often stuck analyzing super long range tea leaves is because there is nothing closer of interest. When there is a big snowstorm 24 hours away you don’t see me posting about day 15 pattern clues that much.

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March! They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible.

I like the PD period for our first BIG threat

@WEATHER53 I don't want to start a back and forth that derails the thread. I shouldn't have been so short just now and I apologize. But we both know we do not agree on some things. And that is fine, hopefully you can agree that lately I have not been engaging with you and letting you say your peace. But may I ask that you don't put words in my mouth or quote me to further your agenda when it's not in the spirit of what I said. I promise I won't do that to you either. If I want to make a point I will just make it. That will keep our engagement more civil. We will probably never agree on this, but we don't have to fight about it, we can just have our different points of view and be two ships passing in the night for the sake of everyone else here.

yea that isn't what I said

Yea, I know. I think what happened was there was kind of a false flag, between the Feb 6 "threat" popping up, and the fact that at day 16 the ridge was washed out and so the pattern looked more workable then perhaps it ever really was around Feb 10th, people started to push up the timeline. A week ago I targeted Feb 10-15 as the transition period and after Feb 15 and "good" and I have not wavered from that and so everything is "right on target" for me. But obviously some wanted to jump right into the snowstravaganza by Feb 10 and so are disappointed now.

The ridge is centered in the exact same place on both plots

I really think part of it is that some don't understand the difference between what a single day is likely to look like at day 16 and what that same day would be likely to look like by day 10. For example, several days ago day 16 heights over the east looked near average but with a wave/trough centered to our west and one to our east. But timing differences on the members washes out the ridge that was likely to be in between these troughs. Now that it has become day 10-12 and the timing differences are being resolved there is a ridge over us during that period between the two waves, and that "red over us" just makes it feel worse when people glance at it. But in reality its the same exact pattern that was being projected. That's what I think is going on.

In actuality those 2 plots look about the same. The difference is the second one is 4 days closer so details are being resolved. The features are sharper. But look at the location of the 4 main features in the pattern A,B,C,D are all located in about the same places. But we are seeing the ridging in between the two troughs (B and D) clearer now as the ensembles resolve timing issues and zero in on the exact location of the features. The fact that we are directly in between the waves and the ridge is showing right over us makes it look worse...but in reality those are the same plots just one is what the same pattern looks like as it gets closer.

The inception of the pattern, which is in the Pacific, has been on day 16 for a few days, but it takes a while to reshuffle the downstream pattern over N America and that has been progressing consistently, people are just trying to rush it, understandably.

Perception bias. The day 16 was "getting close" so people were extrapolating it. In reality the last week its been progressing consistently. Day 16 4 days ago Day 16 3 days ago Day 16 2 days ago Day 16 Yesterday Day 16 now

12z gefs looks on track

Still looks good to me, if we have temp issues with this mean longwave flow in Feb...it's time to pack it in and find a new hobby.

that's still 12 days away, we better have something tangible in our sights by then.

If we get to Feb 10 and we aren't tracking a high level threat it's time to hit the panic button

lol I brought this up like 2 weeks ago, he just never admits anything until there is no possible way to avoid it anymore.