psuhoffman

I've noted for a while...even when we get runs with a really good pattern...when I go look at the snowfall the mean indicates the snow is much further north than I expect given the pattern.

The only good thing is this might prove to @Stormchaserchuck1 that a +NAO isnt the answer. In that case the +NAO is wrecking an otherwise good pacific. We need BOTH!

I do not think Feb 1-10 will be a no hope torch. But, the pattern progression is being delayed by the slow down of the Pacific forcing migrating east. It's stalling in the western pacific for about a week. This is leaving us in kind of a blah pattern in early February. I could see an STJ wave cutting under and enough cold around with that PNA ridge to get something to work if we're lucky. But the PNA ridge looks rather modest now, and the +++NAO is likely going to make it difficult to be cold enough until we get the more ideal pacific, and its likely a moot point anyways because once the wave starts to progress into the central pacific it kick starts the process of tanking the NAO again anyways. We're likely looking at Feb 10-15th or so before the pattern gets REALLY good again. I know this is not what anyone wants to hear, patience isn't the best virtue of some here, but Mid Feb is NOT too late to pull out a good finish. 1958 really got going mid Feb. And before someone says but its warmer now...2015 got going mid Feb too and that was not that long ago. You know I will lean on warming when I think its a part of the equation, but Feb and March are being affected by warming way less that earlier in winter...assuming the waters ever do cool...right now places in the tropical Atlantic are running normal temps for July FFS.

In fairness where he lives averages like 40" in moderate to strong Nino's with a -QBO. And we've pissed away Dec and likely are close to done except maybe some minor snowfall Friday in January. So he is right...for this winter to get to what we expected it will take a 30" Feb/Mar. It's not about month to month averages. Our area gets most of our snow in big big big short periods with long stretches of total crap in between. If you look at many of our winters where we get above average, and I think we all predicted that (all 3 of us in this particular convo I mean) a lot of it came in a crazy month. Look at some of the stretches in the analogs to this winter. Feb/Mar 58, Jan 66, Jan 87, Feb 2010, Jan 2016. Each of the analogs had a month where he got close to or over 30". So I actually agree with him totally here. My forecast will be a total and complete bust POS unless we do get a 30" plus Feb/Mar period. And if we are grading this winter on the sliding scale of what we should expect from a -QBO Nino during ascending solar, if he does not get to at least 30" this winter is a fail.

There is still a chance we hold onto a minor event here, I am not 100% sold it continues to slide away to NOTHING...but I certainly would be prepared for that result emotionally, even up here, given where we are now.

I saw it, its bleeding the wrong way also.

I stayed away from the thread for almost 3 model cycles and oddly it didn't seem like people were any more happy about their snow prospects going to crap. Is it perhaps that my analysis of our crappy outcomes is not what people are really upset about?

Yesterday I was hopeful this would buck the typical outcome for a NS wave coming in from this trajectory. But I think now it's heading towards what we all knew in the back of our heads was most likely. Hope I'm wrong.

The only times a NS wave has trended south it's been because it was suppressed by confluence becoming modeled too weak. It happened twice in March 2014. The problem is, and was true in both those cases, that also weakens the wave. One of those March 2014 storms was originally modeled as a 18-24" storm for PA. In the end it was a 4-8" storm in VA. This wave is so weak already that the suppression it might take to force it back south...would just mean there was no storm for anyone. Squashing it south of us doesn't really do us much good. I have almost NEVER seen a NS wave trend more "diggy" the last 72 hours which is what we actually need.

Yesterday I showed how that was trending our way. That trend the 24 hours previous was why it started to look promising. Unfortunately it’s been bleeding the wrong way since. Often it’s missed because it’s incremental each 6 hours and doesn’t always happen consistently model to model. If you play the “look for whatever gives me hope” game it’s also hard to see. But if you pull back and compare to 24 or 36 hours ago it’s gets hard to ignore why it’s going sideways for us. this is the opposite what we wanted.

I have to admit I do this too sometimes for fun

The confusion has been regarding the two waves. In some cases the lead wave, which is not the main one, was digging more, but it was offset by the main wave NOT and eventually when they phased together it pulled it all north some...but the real issue is its just not coming together. What little STJ there is gets pulled off by that weak POS lead wave and then the stronger SW comes in behind it with nothing to work with at the surface. It eventually gets going as best it can given the wrecked environment but the extra 6 hours it takes to get going might kill us since its moving past us as its doing that.

I think it's just random. We got a pretty good stretch of snow during that week in 2005.

@Ji I don't work at Carver anymore though. After 17 years, and several years of them trying to recruit me, I finally accepted an admin position running afterschool, weekend, and summer programming for the district. My office is in the city schools district building on North Ave. So your plan is to live out "grumpy old men" up there huh?

I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque

He has gotten so conservative in old age

So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"!

I'm in Baltimore

I agree so far I would grade this winter a D. But things can turn around fast in a Nino. 2015 was an F at this point.

Just glad I had nothing to do with the deb fest the last 12 hours in the storm thread

You do it, don't be lazy.

If it were to center there long enough we would likely get a hit. Yes I am on the record that ideally we want it near 50/50 and we do...but keep in mind this last cycle it initially dropped into western Canada then shifted there for a time, and we did just get a 3-5" snow with it there! Then it moves out pretty fast. Ideally I want it out of the way, but I would take it there over a +NAO. We see the +NAO for about a week on guidance with a good pac and its ruining it! I see the same correlations Chuck does...but I disagree that the fix is a +NAO. That just makes it worse. The real fix is we need to get a less -PNA with a -NAO.

Not having more STJ involvement and the lead wave running off are really killing us here.

Caught my house from down below coming back from sledding.

@Ji I see the troubling looks but something doesn’t jive. Even with a + nao the pac shown across guidance should be a cold look. Everything gets good around Feb 15. But the fate before is still uncertain