psuhoffman

So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"!

I'm in Baltimore

I agree so far I would grade this winter a D. But things can turn around fast in a Nino. 2015 was an F at this point.

Just glad I had nothing to do with the deb fest the last 12 hours in the storm thread

You do it, don't be lazy.

If it were to center there long enough we would likely get a hit. Yes I am on the record that ideally we want it near 50/50 and we do...but keep in mind this last cycle it initially dropped into western Canada then shifted there for a time, and we did just get a 3-5" snow with it there! Then it moves out pretty fast. Ideally I want it out of the way, but I would take it there over a +NAO. We see the +NAO for about a week on guidance with a good pac and its ruining it! I see the same correlations Chuck does...but I disagree that the fix is a +NAO. That just makes it worse. The real fix is we need to get a less -PNA with a -NAO.

Not having more STJ involvement and the lead wave running off are really killing us here.

Caught my house from down below coming back from sledding.

@Ji I see the troubling looks but something doesn’t jive. Even with a + nao the pac shown across guidance should be a cold look. Everything gets good around Feb 15. But the fate before is still uncertain

Ugh. That’s not good for anyone. Even up here I never want to be on the southern edge of a northern stream wave 72 hours out. That is bad bad news. Hopefully gfs uk and euro don’t head that way. Ggem always matches the RGEM so don’t expect anything better from that.

I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible.

Icon was close to Folks

@Terpeast 3k looks very similar to the 12k at 60 but it was going to be a little south which makes a huge difference for us.

Both are unreliable and go off on tangents. But since we’re going to analyze the 12k I figure I’d point out the 3k was going to be good imo.

3k had the SW a little southeast at 60. Would have been better.

It was digging more then turned northeast v continuing to dig

Yes. We got most of what we wanted from the trailing vort. More dig. Perfect pass. More amped. But the lead wave is running off not getting captured. The lead wave has no upper support. We get snow just from that vort pass. The coastal runs off by itself. It’s just a sloppy interaction when we need those features to play nice.

A full capture phase might be out of reach but a trend towards more interaction maybe.

Wishing you the best. I had to drive my son to surgery during a snow/ice storm in 2019. Definitely added a layer of stress. Right now you look pretty safe for that date!

Man if the lead wave doesnt run off with all the moisture… this has much bigger potential with just a slight adjustment.

Thought this was worth bringing over If this trend continues this has a bit more upside!

Yup... more amplified wave, further south

Look at the 24 hour change!