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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Yea I was thinking 1966 and 1987 were top analogs and both had a January 10 day period very similar to this pattern where a tpv got trapped under a block. And both lead to back to back snowstorms here. But I wonder based on recent results if it’s harder to get the NS to dig enough for that to work. Seems whenever we need the NS it’s typically not digging far enough south and it’s got a million fast moving vorts running interference. Those 2 are related. But I think we would be better off without the tpv. Of course then the not cold enough issue might come back.
  2. psuhoffman
    Fair enough. I’m getting pretty numb at this point. I’m getting a kick out of all the posts by people trying to convince themselves when deep down they know. Last time it was trying to convince themselves that the typical north warmer trend that happens 90% wouldn’t. This time it was trying to convince them the complicated NS play nice and phase solution would be the right one dispute the best model saying no no no. But we all knew. I don’t even get that upset anymore. I’m almost relieved. It’s more stressful knowing the rug pull is coming and know knowing when. Now it feels like freedom. Miserable snowless freedom.
  3. psuhoffman
    This looked good But I guess it depends what your goal is. If you just want to maybe see a coating it looks ok.
  4. psuhoffman
    I didn’t realize we all moved to the VA capes!
  5. psuhoffman
    I’ve never liked the tpv on top of us. It guarantees every threat is complicated and needs NS cooperation
  6. psuhoffman
    I always thought “next” was partly in jest and meant to mean this run says next. No further analysis of this run needed. Never bothered me. The fact it meant the run sucks bothers me. It not whatever adjectives we use.
  7. psuhoffman
    For the love of god everyone put him on ignore
  8. psuhoffman
    I gave up on the idea of a bigger snow when I saw all guidance trend towards the euros idea of keying on the lead SW (or second if you count that weak front runner) but hope we can end on a compromise that leaves us a light event. Avoid Jis 8 to 0 scenario. But we’re living dangerously now with how this is trending.
  9. psuhoffman
    This isn’t an easy storm to make early model run projections because a lot of what goes one early with the lead wave is just noise. It’s how 2 and 3 interact that matters and that happens late.
  10. psuhoffman
    It's almost identical to the 12z GGEM at the same time
  11. psuhoffman
    Time for the ICON to forget to load the only 3 panels we care about
  12. psuhoffman
    yea it is what it is... we all know who the JV players are, but its still better to have them on our side than against. Preponderance of evidence and all that jazz...
  13. psuhoffman
    had a lot of blue!
  14. psuhoffman
    Comparing the NAM at 84 to this mornings 12z Global runs...it is most similar to the GGEM, not quite as amplified but significantly more amplified than the GFS. It was likely about to look good in the next couple frames IMO.
  15. psuhoffman
  16. psuhoffman
    We were talking about snow
  17. psuhoffman
    The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And its actually what the guidance suggests.
  18. psuhoffman
    I don't love the current look, BUT I do like where it's heading. It was all NS before today, which is why we weren't getting any good looks at all. The euro is kind of a hybrid now, it does activate a weak STJ wave and begins to amplify it while its still in the TN valley. I would love to see it become STJ dominant v a hybrid but its already a much better look that a pure NS miller b and its trending towards more STJ interaction today. If we get one more trend the same way as the last 24 hours suddenly we have a big dog look. IMO its already moved towards a progression that is at least unlikely to miss us completely, but the threat that it is only a modest event here and more significant further north is real.
  19. psuhoffman
    Don't sell yourself short. I know I find all your posts helpful.
  20. psuhoffman
    The differences critical to our outcome become pretty evident by about 60 hours, which is becoming pretty close now...so pretty soon we will see guidance begin to converge. We kind of did at 12z, but we still don't know where the compromise will leave us.
  21. psuhoffman
    You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that. A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again. A stronger lead wave interferes. So it's all related.
  22. psuhoffman
    Jan 20th is a perfect example of the importance of pattern recognition over surface output on long range guidance. For whatever reason the guidance never really keyed in on a specific wave for that period and was mostly dry, but pulling back the pattern was screaming for a storm there. And suddenly as we get into the range where waves can be better resolved a storm has popped up on all 3 major global models that go out that far...and I'm pretty sure the UKMET was headed towards a storm also if it went out a couple more days.
  23. psuhoffman
    They seem to be trending towards a compromise on that, but I'm just not sure what that looks like in the end. I am concerned about that also.
  24. psuhoffman
    Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying.
  25. psuhoffman
    Cleveland did
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