psuhoffman

A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works?

It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years. But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago.

Hopefully this will help you visualize. Now imagine if that circulation expands! It shifts the subtropical flow north. Which does 2 things. It simply shifts everything north. That’s not good if you were already on the southern edge of where it typically snowed much! But it also compresses the flow between the subtropics and the polar jet. So it speeds up the northern get stream. Which will tend to flatten it and prevent digging and make it harder to phase things since waves are racing by faster. It’s a lose lose.

Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time.

Hmm

Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models?

I won’t lie the lack of a healthy stj wave is hurting our chances a lot. But I do give this setup more of a chance than a typical NS miller b. If you remember when I explained how Feb 10, 2010 worked out…this has a similar flow going for it. as the NS SW enters the pac NW there is a wall in the flow ahead of it. It’s going to have to dive southeast and end to near X. Both feature move east in unison. If the wave can survive the shred factory flow in the Midwest and get to us intact as the tpv finally gets out if the way and the trough amplifies along the east coast it could develop in time.

I can't remember if the SREF is technically the last of the previous runs...or the first of the next ones. From the number of times it does NOT predict what the other meso models are about to do, I kind of think its the last run of the previous data.

We should get it

DCA is depressing...

It also helps to be at the summit of a ridge because of upslope. Being at 1030 at the summit of a ridge is way different than at 1030 in a valley. Not the same results...

It's not awful IMO. Baltimore isn't typically as bad as DC area with rush hour. Plus I often can get in and out without hitting the worst of it if I plan my commute. But it's still an extra hour than if I lived where most who commute in and out of the city do. My point is anyone could do what I do, I don't have some special birth right. I made a choice to move to the snowiest spot within reasonable commuting distance to DC/Baltimore. It's not 100% the snow, I do love it up here all around. I could do with a few less confederate flags...ugh, but its not most people. And its beautiful, and in the summer its 85 instead of 93! And there are a lot of recreational outdoor activities. But the snow was a BIG part of it, I wont lie. This would be a bit further to DC...but you could easily commute to one of the ridges near Mt Airy from DC in about the same time as my commute to Baltimore...and they don't to quite as good as me but they do about as much better than DC than I do v Baltimore. I sympathize with the snow weenies still in DC or Baltimore. I really do. I lived in the DC area for a long time. And it wasn't enough snow to make me happy...so I moved! But you all could do that...no wait...then we would have an UHI up here too...dont do that. There are no places. It's awful up here. The wolves terrorize us daily. Stay away. Oh on topic...things are trending better to break the 1" streak. At this point the thing I would be most worried about in DC would be for the boundary to shift back north because that initial wave amplifies before it can clear the area.

If I had a helicopter...

about 1035

I drive an hour to and from work everyday, I won't apologize for it! The place I bought was on the market for like a year! Any one of you could have got it... Kidding not kidding. I know its in jest but I suffer every work day for the few times a year I get more snow.

Sorry my aggressive posts are directed at the snow gods not you or anyone else. Yes. Remember when I kept saying we need it to get to 50/50 over and over. I eventually stopped because it just wasn't going to happen and it was redundant. But let me illustrate why that is the magic spot for us... So picture the flow here around the 50/50...It keeps the flow out of the NW to our northeast providing the cold air but also "blocking" any wave coming along from cutting up to our west...but it also is out of the way enough to give space to any wave coming from the west to amplify. Look at the blue circle...the northern stream is out of the way pulled to our northeast where we want it. Something rotating around the 50/50 there usually just acts to prevent a cutter unless the 50/50 is too far SW OR a really strong vort comes along at the exact wrong time then yea we can squash something...but its way less an issue. SO we have a HUGE win zone...any STJ wave that comes along and tries to track northeast west of us will be forced to turn east or transfer to the coast into the box we need, black circle. Our path to a win is simple...get an STJ wave to come alone, with the NS way out of the way and room to amplify and try to turn north...get stopped in its tracks by the NS where we want it...and turn east under us. Boom But now look at the scenario with a TPV over top of us... Look at where the northern stream is directed now...right into the area we want a storm to amplify. So now...it almost guarantees some NS wave is going to be diving down on top of the STJ where we need a storm to develop. So to get a storm now we need one of those NS vorts (x's) to dig deep enough and play nice and phase with the STJ, and also we need it not to happen to soon and cut up west and not too late to go OTS and if the NS waves dont dig enough everything ends up north of us or if they don't phase nothing happens at all! It's a way more complicated setup and we don't ever seem to do complicated anymore! This can work. It has worked. 1966 and 1987 were analogs where this exact pattern worked. But... I don't think its as easy as it once was because the jet is shifted north and the NS just doesn't dig as much as it used to which is a problem in this specific scenario. Hope this helps...

Don’t go towards the light

It’s a relatively minor change so I don’t know. Let’s see how Feb 10 on trends. Fact is the -nao signal for Feb 1-10 was weak and it just ended up neutral. That’s a minor change but has a significant impact on our precarious snow chances lol.

I answered you in the panic room. Keep questions about you know what there. I’m tired of getting yelled at for talking about it here.

But the main reason I don’t like having a TPV there is that it means we need NS interaction and to get a NS SW to dig enough to phase with a storm south of our latitude. And that isn’t happening very much anymore. And I think you know what is a part of that. This exact pattern has worked out a lot in the past. Not to much recently.

Huh? look at Feb 2010. The NS is out of the way. There is no vortex there. The STJ wave in TX is alone to do its thing. There is a monster block locking a 50/50 in but the flow across Canada is just flat and out of the damn way! That’s what I like. Just get out of the STJs way. Give a stj wave room to amplify on its own without needing any NS interaction at all!

@stormy for the record it’s not personal. I don’t know you. I don’t have any issue with you. But sometimes man…like last week when you know everyone else in the storm thread is upset and you decide that’s a good time to say how awesome it is we’re getting rain because of the drought. Yea you’re right. You also know no one gives a F and that’s just going to upset people. Or a few days ago when you decided what the thread needed was a grammar cop! Or the other day, hell I don’t even know what you were on about. You made like 5 posts that didn’t even make any sense at all. I’m serious people kept quoting you and I had no idea what it meant. That’s why I said just ignore it. I didn’t say to ignore you because of our vehement but scientific disagreement over climate change. I said that because you often are off on a tangent from what the current discussion is.

Exactly. I said I didn’t like that feature before this pattern started. Wish I had been wrong about that!

I don’t think its can kicking per say but I see some slightly troubling trends for early Feb. EPS 10 days ago eps now the major features are the same. But the eps has been delaying the -nao from redeveloping. That isn’t shocking that’s really hard for guidance to get right. Unfortunately that will be huge once the pac jet extends again. There will be a brief period late Jan as the pac jet starts to extend that the configuration is perfect and we don’t need any nao help to get cold. But early Feb the pac trough gets slightly east of perfect again. Not bad. Very common for a Nino. But we need some blocking help to stop the warmer air being injected there from spreading east and taking over. It’s still not a bad look at all. We would get chances. But the new look has more thermal issues than the look 10 days ago. If you want to be an optimist the eps is trending even better for the period Feb 10-25 though. It went from good to OMG how can it not snow in that. And I know we’re all super impatient now justifiably so but Mid Feb to early March is not too late. 2014, 2015, 2018 our best snow was after Feb 10 all those years! And two of them we remember very fondly! Personally since I’m out of the area from Feb 3-10 I’m ok with the timing. lol. I’ll duck and cover now…

Not at that range in a NS dominant chaotic pattern with a pinwheeling block/tpv. You’re right in other situations.