psuhoffman

Here is the path to a bigger snow Friday, and its closer today than it was yesterday... Yesterday I noted that the ensemble members that had a big storm were the few that actually washed out the lead NS SW (X above) and developed something behind it associated with Y. Y is the SW that actually has the most potential to amplify. X is coming in under a pretty suppressive flow since the TPV didn't fully split or slide east. Problem is that solution was an extreme outlier and things were trending away. That lead SW is coming in a bit stronger not weaker lately. However...there is now another path IMO. Y could catch up to X. There is now a little more interaction that yesterday between these features and they do eventually phase just a little too late. IF Y can speed up some...and X can slow down some which will happy if it continues to amplify more, Y could dive in in time to buckle the flow and phase while the storm is still south of our latitude ...that would be the path to a bigger storm here IMO.

There aren't many other 12" plus examples...but there are plenty of like 6-10" examples. Not having a NAO block severely limits our ability to get a 12" plus storm because even if we get a transient 50/50 its moving out and so any long duration slow moving storm, the kind you usually need to get a 12" plus storm...is going to have issues unless its times absolutely perfect. But we can certainly get a good storm that way. 2003 was time up perfect with an arctic high in a perfect spot and not just a 50/50 but an absolute BEAST of one that because it was so strong didnt move as easy.

It suddenly changed the entire setup. Remember it was keying on that 3rd wave for a while...never the Euro which is why it lost the storm...then suddenly models shifted to waves 1 and 2. That had a MUCH lower ceiling. I know some will come on here and say anyone rooting for 6-12" was silly and foolish and blah blah blah but that was on the table with the wave 3 scenario. It was. This current one has now just about maxed out its possible potential. We got really lucky and are getting about the best possible outcome from this type of setup. But I think it was natural to be disappointed when the bigger and better setup was suddenly yanked away. I have not made one complaint about this event and whatever we get...but of course I would have preferred a more dynamic storm! Also given our recent history I think it was natural to be skeptical that we would max out like this and get lucky with the lower ceiling scenario. An areawide 1-2" was much more likely when things shifted to wave 1 and 2.

Everything is pinwheeling around the parent anchor vortex tpv. So it affects it very much. Problem is we don’t know exactly how it will play out. And there are a lot of variables. But we’re stuck in a bit of a double bind. We need that NS wave to dig a lot and stay south. The only path to a big storm I see is if the NS wave comes in stronger and digs more, that might also require more of a split between the main tpv and the lobe hanging back. In that case we want the system now to phase and pull the tpv further east. But what if the NS SW isn’t going to be stronger and dig? Then we probably lose any path to a bigger snow but in that case if we want anything even a 1-3” event DC needs a more suppressive flow to force the NS SW not to gain any latitude as it slides east and keep it under us. In that scenario we want the main tpv further west. This is too chaotic a setup for me to play it out in my mind and say for sure what need from X and Y now. Sometimes I do that when yes a simpler scenario and I can see from 5 days out “we just need X this and Y that”. This is way too complicated for me to do that with any clarity. The 2 things I can say for sure is we ideally want a stringer NS SW and for it to be further south.

There is chaos in any pattern. But get us cold and throw stj waves at us and eventually something likely works out. Nino snow climo is made a lot simpler by having a stronger stj throwing chances at us more frequently.

Oddly both ninos that had that kinda look 2003 and 2015 ended up with big snows from well timed confluence and stj waves directed at us. Obviously 2015 wasn’t to the same level but I’m not kicking those two 6-12” storms in Feb/March out a bed! I think having a stronger stj is likely the difference because that’s a cold dry look often in non ninos. I don’t count 2014 because it had a very -AO and a ridge over the tpv that acted like a defacto -nao. But add a stronger stj and you get more chances plus some of those waves end up 50/50 lows as they traverse.

One year he used IADs snow but DCAs avg to verify his mid Atlantic snow forecast!!!

Lucky for them they get either Tampa or Philly next week. They should win either of those games much easier than last night.

Just remember to apply the city/country rule when measuring snow later. You divide city snow by 2 because half of it ends up on buildings and no one cares. County snow you multiple by 2 because it's twice as nice.

Both the ARW1 and 2 are crazy considering those are 10-1

Nothing. He is playing a game. He is targeting snow weenies that just want smoke blown up their ass. Then he makes incredibly vague predictions. If anywhere along 95 from DC to Portland gets 3” and a breeze he will claim victory and exaggerate the accomplishment. If nothing happens it’s oh well and on to the next. By the time it fails he’s already talking about whatever is next and hooked his audience on that. He sells hopium. I know it’s an act because I used to actually communicate with him some when I was a meteorology major at psu. He was always a weenie but he wasn’t crazy then. The reason I know he doesn’t believe what he says is I remember some “rules” he knew back then that he has since ignored. One example. This doesn’t affect us much because a east based Nina w a -QBO is just cold and dry. But they are very snowy NYC to Boston. Many years ago he showed how a chart where an east based Nina -QBO was very cold in the NE. But on that same chart it also showed that a west based Nina w a -QBO was very warm. The QBO loses its effect. So I know he knows that because he was the reason I know that! Then some years later after he joined wxbell he ignited his own role and forecasted cold and snow and of course busted really bad. But I knew he knew it was BS. He did that several other times. Said things I knew from the past he knew was untrue. Eventually I stopped reading or watching him at all. But I’m 100% convinced he isn’t making honest forecasts. He isn’t just a crazy weenie. It’s a business strategy.

It can’t snow down there anymore

I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle.

lol

Should of been already but it keeps getting pushed back due to delays in developing its replacement

It really has helped since I stopped paying any attention to them. They are just as likely to go off on a tangent even at 12 hours as get anything right. They just add confusion. We will all be better off when ncep stops running them soon!

Man stop It with those Atari maps. If you’re going to post depth maps fine but at least find one with PS2 level graphics.

My gut

Even that run was kinda meh. I went and looked at the individual members from the last few ensembles. I noticed something. The handful of members with a big 10”+ hit for DC there is a theme where it seems they run the NS wave way out ahead and wash it out then a stj wave develops behind that wave and phase with the trailing energy as the tail of the trough rotates down. Maybe the truth is there is no path with that NS SW we’re keying on now. If we want a big storm we need that to get out of the way so the energy rounding the tail of the trough can phase with thr stj? Dunno just an observation

Yea. And part of that is cyclical. But it’s also being exasperated by a northern stream that’s more active and shifted north which are both related to warming and a result of the expanding Hadley cell circulation in the pacific.

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWxI’ve noticed the last 24 hours the runs that are more suppressive with the TPV get the NS track we need but the wave ends up more suppressed with almost no STJ interaction. The less suppressive runs have a bigger storm but the NS wave comes across further north and so it’s mostly a Philly northeast storm. So what’s the path for us? What do we root for? My gut says more suppressive flow combined with stronger SW. But those runs seem to have less STJ and so it’s not much better.

could have been a better run if it had the same stj interaction as the last few. But it lost that completely and that offset what were some improvements in the NS piece.

NJ gets some inv trough action then the coastal gets going just in time to scrape cape cod.

Nope. NS SW came across as a better latitude for us but the whole thing was more suppressed. No stj interaction and the coastal took too long to get going. It’s not a good run for anyone. Light snow across MD and NJ.

There seems to be less stj interaction though. Don’t love that. But the NS SW was a bit south. I do like that. Next frames will determine.