psuhoffman

We love to make fun of this silly superstition but at the same time particles behave differently when being watched and we can't explain why so...

Seriously how would I possible know that either way? LOL

Warming caused the TPV to amplify and suppress the storm

It's not like we've been getting any snow the last couple years either though...

That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95. Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend now

I'm not sure this matters though because they are trending NW under a totally different paradigm than the euro sees that starts to veer off around hour 60. The other guidance have a much more amplified 3rd wave and weaker 2nd wave. Under that scenario there is room for the storm to track more NW. But if the euro is correct we never get to that scenario. The 2nd wave takes too much of the energy off, the 3rd wave is flat and positive tilted and there is no chance for the storm to even get going. What happens under one paradigm doesn't necessarily mean anything if that whole paradigm is wrong. If the euro is right about what those waves are going to look like around hour 60 there wont be a storm to track further NW. It will just be a series of weak arse waves off the SE coast until its way too far OTS to do us any good. We just have to hope that the euro is the one messing up the configuration of those waves not all other guidance.

why not 30:0, go big or go home

There is some speculation about the euro playing to its bias of holding back energy. I am not even sure it still has that bias, that was like 3 versions ago, but I don't really see it. There are 3 waves rotating around the TPV, initially it was the first wave that was "the storm" but that has now become almost non existent. All guidance is now keying on 2/3. They are initially developing a low with that second wave then phasing in the 3rd which is the strongest of them. The problem I see with the euro is its stronger with wave 2 and weaker with wave 3. It's not holding as much energy back...and in essence wave 2 and 3 end up splitting the energy equally and so nothing comes of it. The better euro runs were when it was developing wave 2 with almost no interaction from wave 3. The other guidance was not showing much of a storm then because they were still keying on wave 1 which is washing out. A shift happened yesterday where all guidance shifted to waves 2/3 interacting. When that happened all other guidance shifted towards a wave 3 dominant scenario with a storm but the euro shifted to this nothing burger all waves split the energy and nothing comes of it scenario. I have no idea which is right but I don't think its simply the euro holding back too much, and I don't think that kicker is totally it either. I think its different with its energy trade off between waves 2 and 3.

why not to give up on the 20th. Right now it looks a little too NS dominant and that's definitely an issue, but there is plenty of time for that to change and its a beautiful setup in general if we can just get a more amplified STJ wave to come along.

Sleep is for human losers. We are snow weenies.

maybe the holding back energy thing...because I was comparing it to the GGEM just now and you're right about the kicker, but the GGEM is significantly faster than the euro and already has the SW up near PA while the Euro is way back in the MS valley. That creates a spacing issue with that kicker maybe? THe GFS is slower like the euro but that doesn't matter as much because the kicker isn't there. So maybe there are a few moving parts here but the idea is if the kicker is there then the progression can't be slower.

I guess but I thought people were making way too much of the 12z and 18z eps. I thought they both looked like crap and supported an OTS solution. The mean was propped up by a few amplified outliers but the probabilities for snow and precip were very low. THere were just enough amplified solutions to make the mean look better than the op but the majority camp was a coastal scraper solution.

I know @Terpeast pointed that out but then noted it was there even on the good euro runs yesterday. But I was thinking, those runs were keying on a different wave than all guidance is now. That wave is suppressed across all guidance now. But that lead wave had more separation and was developing on the front side of the trough and didn't necessarily need as much amplification to work, it was almost like a glorified anafront wave. This situation is more dynamic but requires a more amplified wave to work, its having to energize a stagnant boundary further southeast. Maybe once the euro realized that lead wave is not the one and started to key on the trailing wave...that is when that kicker became an issue. So it might be that kicker after all that is the issue. I don't see any other reason why the wave is so much less amplified on the euro v all other guidance. That is the one factor that is so different and sticks out.

I am not favoring the euro per say, but what is disappointing is all other guidance finally started to converge somewhat tonight. Had the euro come in line my confidence really would have increased. You're right the euro is not so much better that you take it when its in opposition to all other guidance (it does have the ICON lol). But it is still the best model and if one was going to be the crazy uncle I would rather it not be the euro. Confidence remains low until it gets back in the fold.

He is definitely an optimist...but we have enough pessimists on here so...

Comparing the euro to all other guidance...I think its pretty simple actually. Everything else is just significantly more amplified with that trailing SW diving in.

It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lol

Naw, minor improvements from 12z but this isn't gonna get it done. It's significantly flatter than everything else.

I see minor improvements so far, TPV is oriented in a less suppressive way, energy is a bit more consolidated at the back of the trough...but the second wave is also a bit stronger which isn't good if we are looking for a GFS trailing wave solution. I don't know how much difference those first two factors will have either, its relatively minor changes and 12z was a disaster so...

In fairness maybe they were just ahead of the curve, that 05 winter would be EPIC now

they talking about before 1996 or 2003?

OK I'm back... After digesting all the 0z guidance and ensembles... if the euro can get on board tonight we might finally have consensus. The GGEM op is a major outlier even among its own ensembles. UKMET is the most amplified solution which is no shock if you follow the UKMET at all. But other than the GGEM op everything else is within a more narrow envelope of solutions now tonight. If the euro comes in with something within the same envelope in 20 mins my confidence that we have a good chance to end the streak will go up significantly.

Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit...

you Ninja'd me. But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one. It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous. That is bust city right there. But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development.

I like the 0z GEFS more, and I liked the 18z GEFS a lot! It has more members keying on that second wave...but actually has a cleaner phase and gets the coastal going sooner without that weird jump thing where the initial wave almost takes the boundary off and the low has to redevelop west. That was a really messy progression on the op. But the GEFS indicates a move towards the slower progression with the 3rd wave being dominant but a cleaner coastal development. If we actually can get the 3rd wave to work it has the highest upside. Way less risk of a cutter or thermal issues, more room to amplify, stronger NS wave... It moved towards a better scenario imo. I don't know what to make of the GGEM though, hopefully its just off on a tangent. Not that unusual for the ggem.