psuhoffman

The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And its actually what the guidance suggests.

I don't love the current look, BUT I do like where it's heading. It was all NS before today, which is why we weren't getting any good looks at all. The euro is kind of a hybrid now, it does activate a weak STJ wave and begins to amplify it while its still in the TN valley. I would love to see it become STJ dominant v a hybrid but its already a much better look that a pure NS miller b and its trending towards more STJ interaction today. If we get one more trend the same way as the last 24 hours suddenly we have a big dog look. IMO its already moved towards a progression that is at least unlikely to miss us completely, but the threat that it is only a modest event here and more significant further north is real.

Don't sell yourself short. I know I find all your posts helpful.

The differences critical to our outcome become pretty evident by about 60 hours, which is becoming pretty close now...so pretty soon we will see guidance begin to converge. We kind of did at 12z, but we still don't know where the compromise will leave us.

You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that. A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again. A stronger lead wave interferes. So it's all related.

Jan 20th is a perfect example of the importance of pattern recognition over surface output on long range guidance. For whatever reason the guidance never really keyed in on a specific wave for that period and was mostly dry, but pulling back the pattern was screaming for a storm there. And suddenly as we get into the range where waves can be better resolved a storm has popped up on all 3 major global models that go out that far...and I'm pretty sure the UKMET was headed towards a storm also if it went out a couple more days.

They seem to be trending towards a compromise on that, but I'm just not sure what that looks like in the end. I am concerned about that also.

Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying.

Cleveland did

We love to make fun of this silly superstition but at the same time particles behave differently when being watched and we can't explain why so...

Seriously how would I possible know that either way? LOL

Warming caused the TPV to amplify and suppress the storm

It's not like we've been getting any snow the last couple years either though...

That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95. Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend now

I'm not sure this matters though because they are trending NW under a totally different paradigm than the euro sees that starts to veer off around hour 60. The other guidance have a much more amplified 3rd wave and weaker 2nd wave. Under that scenario there is room for the storm to track more NW. But if the euro is correct we never get to that scenario. The 2nd wave takes too much of the energy off, the 3rd wave is flat and positive tilted and there is no chance for the storm to even get going. What happens under one paradigm doesn't necessarily mean anything if that whole paradigm is wrong. If the euro is right about what those waves are going to look like around hour 60 there wont be a storm to track further NW. It will just be a series of weak arse waves off the SE coast until its way too far OTS to do us any good. We just have to hope that the euro is the one messing up the configuration of those waves not all other guidance.

why not 30:0, go big or go home

There is some speculation about the euro playing to its bias of holding back energy. I am not even sure it still has that bias, that was like 3 versions ago, but I don't really see it. There are 3 waves rotating around the TPV, initially it was the first wave that was "the storm" but that has now become almost non existent. All guidance is now keying on 2/3. They are initially developing a low with that second wave then phasing in the 3rd which is the strongest of them. The problem I see with the euro is its stronger with wave 2 and weaker with wave 3. It's not holding as much energy back...and in essence wave 2 and 3 end up splitting the energy equally and so nothing comes of it. The better euro runs were when it was developing wave 2 with almost no interaction from wave 3. The other guidance was not showing much of a storm then because they were still keying on wave 1 which is washing out. A shift happened yesterday where all guidance shifted to waves 2/3 interacting. When that happened all other guidance shifted towards a wave 3 dominant scenario with a storm but the euro shifted to this nothing burger all waves split the energy and nothing comes of it scenario. I have no idea which is right but I don't think its simply the euro holding back too much, and I don't think that kicker is totally it either. I think its different with its energy trade off between waves 2 and 3.

why not to give up on the 20th. Right now it looks a little too NS dominant and that's definitely an issue, but there is plenty of time for that to change and its a beautiful setup in general if we can just get a more amplified STJ wave to come along.

Sleep is for human losers. We are snow weenies.

maybe the holding back energy thing...because I was comparing it to the GGEM just now and you're right about the kicker, but the GGEM is significantly faster than the euro and already has the SW up near PA while the Euro is way back in the MS valley. That creates a spacing issue with that kicker maybe? THe GFS is slower like the euro but that doesn't matter as much because the kicker isn't there. So maybe there are a few moving parts here but the idea is if the kicker is there then the progression can't be slower.

I guess but I thought people were making way too much of the 12z and 18z eps. I thought they both looked like crap and supported an OTS solution. The mean was propped up by a few amplified outliers but the probabilities for snow and precip were very low. THere were just enough amplified solutions to make the mean look better than the op but the majority camp was a coastal scraper solution.

I know @Terpeast pointed that out but then noted it was there even on the good euro runs yesterday. But I was thinking, those runs were keying on a different wave than all guidance is now. That wave is suppressed across all guidance now. But that lead wave had more separation and was developing on the front side of the trough and didn't necessarily need as much amplification to work, it was almost like a glorified anafront wave. This situation is more dynamic but requires a more amplified wave to work, its having to energize a stagnant boundary further southeast. Maybe once the euro realized that lead wave is not the one and started to key on the trailing wave...that is when that kicker became an issue. So it might be that kicker after all that is the issue. I don't see any other reason why the wave is so much less amplified on the euro v all other guidance. That is the one factor that is so different and sticks out.

I am not favoring the euro per say, but what is disappointing is all other guidance finally started to converge somewhat tonight. Had the euro come in line my confidence really would have increased. You're right the euro is not so much better that you take it when its in opposition to all other guidance (it does have the ICON lol). But it is still the best model and if one was going to be the crazy uncle I would rather it not be the euro. Confidence remains low until it gets back in the fold.

He is definitely an optimist...but we have enough pessimists on here so...

Comparing the euro to all other guidance...I think its pretty simple actually. Everything else is just significantly more amplified with that trailing SW diving in.