psuhoffman

It was initially. It’s a totally different wave than the one that hit us on 18z run. It squashed that then develops the one behind it.

@Terpeast@stormtracker it actually moved towards Heisys trailing wave idea. And sorta pulled it off in a messy way. This was a big change I’ll reserve my judgement until the rest of 0z. But my fear is we get stuck between solutions and all 3 waves rotating around just run interference with each other. We need one to be dominant. The lead can’t imo. But we’ve seen runs that work now with either the 2nd or 3rd.

No I meant exactly what I said. He does an over the top plot line EVERY threat. And he had been in decline since 2003

JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

All 5 examples sucked in DC. Last one was 3”. The only thing interesting would be the weenie meltdowns in here. We haven’t had a snowy La Niña in 24 years! And the only 2 in the last 50 years were +pdo -QBO winters!

Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it

Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams

I remember they sent us to school in NJ expecting rain. I have a vivid memory of boarding a bus in a very chaotic early release while it was pouring snow and getting deep. I know from reading analysis of that storm they expected the mid level warmth to push further NW given the lack of a high but the low tracked a little further east and was so intense that dynamic cooling offset the warming until the dryslot.

Here is my early preview of my winter 2024-25 forecast.

I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months!

18z euro There are too many moving parts for me to project much. But the SW that becomes the kicker on the 12z is weaker. The wave we’re watching is hanging back a bit more and the tpv is slightly less suppressive. So all good trends. But how much difference it would have made I don’t know. Remember the 12z op was pretty awful. It had almost no wave at all so we needed more than subtle improvements. It ended too soon to say.

Before anyone gets too upset you don’t have to worry about that happening again. If that happens again we won’t melt 18” in a few hours…because we wouldn’t get it in the first place. That was one of the storms @Terpeast analysis showed would be a perfect track rainstorm now.

Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”.

Depends if we’re talking about what it actually shows or superimposing some further warming trend only to. As is it’s pretty much all snow in DC. I checked the soundings. The warmest layer is 850 and it never gets above at any level in DC. This win as is was showing a 6-8” thump snow in DC maybe with some light sleet in the dry slot. Even southeast of 95 west of the bay there is only a very small warm layer at 850 and it comes in towards the end of the WAA thump. In actuality even east of 95 I think would get a 4-6” thump then just dry slot as they mix with sleet and snizzle. Once east of the bay it does become very problematic on this run. But I get it. I’d prefer the 12z solution. Even up here I’d feel safer with that at this lead.

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs! There was no high in front of that one. It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it. But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did. This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi. There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also. Also one of my top analogs!

Are you telling us or trying to convince yourself?

Sorry. I’ve always been DC/Baltimore metro centric with my posts and analysis. Maybe part of that is I lived in the DC metro area for 10 years before moving up here. And it’s because that seems to be where the vast majority of this forum is centered. I never never say it was a great run when it shows me with 8” and DC rain. Besides I was mostly just piggy backing on da @Ji and @stormtrackerword play. I’d probably prefer the 12z solution better not to deal with the threat of mix anywhere near us. It was a better run for more people but less upside in the flush hit zone. But now we’re splitting hairs on a 5 day forecast. I wish EVERYONE in here could get a flush hit. I’d gladly take a gfs solution shifted 30 miles east where maybe I get 6” instead of 9” but @CAPE can get 6” instead of 3! As long as I get enough to use my snowblower for the first time in a few years I’ll be happy! But the truth is this is unlikely to be intense enough to have that expended a snow shield even if the more amplified solutions are right. Very few storms are. But I guess I focus on DC and when I see them get a flush hit my instruct says good run.

It was a flush hit for 95! We can’t get a much better run for 90% of this sub than that. But I sympathize that it wasn’t as great for the eastern shore.

Given where everything else is I’m glad the euro is where it is. If the euro and gfs were both flush hits and the gem uk NW we would be worried about it going NW. right now the median of all guidance is a hit and that’s not a bad spot.

That run was da bomb

Did you throw in the bus to sweeten the pot?

We're running out of time. Did they deliver a ransom note?

Having a strong vortex there creates 2 complications IMO. It can be a suppressive element. It guarantees the northern stream will be diving down and rotating pieces of energy over us. Unless they time up and phase where we need them that can act to squash the southern stream waves we need. We could see that next week. It can also cause a cutter. If the TPV wobbles west and phases it can create a bomb storm that cuts even in a -NAO. We are seeing that this week. I have long stated my preference if we get a blocking regime is to have a very weak or no TPV at all on our side. And yes I know that creates the issue of will it be cold enough. But historically having the NS out of the way completely during a split flow pattern is the most likely path to snow here. It's less complicated. Just get some southern stream wave to come along and amplify without any NS interference. Just have to be cold enough. Yea I know...thats been a problem too.