psuhoffman

I told you that probably wont work. Even that control run wasn't going to work and it wasn't even going to be close. I saw some of the posts about it and went and looked and was like...huh this was going to be way OTS. The angle that trailing wave is coming in at and the angle of the trough trailing from the TPV makes it almost impossible for that final caboose SW to amplify and come north. It's going to swing way too far SE before turning the corner. Plus, with 2 waves ahead of it, its simply unlikely to have enough left along the STJ boundary for it to activate a healthy storm in time. Yes, in an ideal world we get the TPV out ahead and then something comes in behind but the spacing isnt even close for that to work. I was just thrilled the guidance went from keying on the lead wave on Monday/Tuesday to the second wave on Tuesday. That allows the chance for the front the clear and to get a healthy enough boundary wave like the GFS. You're going greedy and trying for the next wave which yes if you were to change some variables would have HECS potential but its too late in the game to get those changes imo. I've been wrong but man would I be really really shocked if that last trailing wave was able to turn the corner and amplify. I hope I am wrong but that seems far fetched imo.

we definitely don't have to worry about Heisy's NW phobia with the euro. I don't mind seeing some stuff SE and some stuff NW at this point.

I get what you're saying and you're right if we got even more separation but there are risks with that idea too. The euro control was going to be a miss. That trailing wave is really positively tilted without enough separation and I'm not sure we can get that to trend enough at this point. At least everything has converged on the second wave being the key, instead of that lead wave that has no hope. But you're rooting for that 3rd wave, which does have the highest upside potential, but I'm not sure its viable, were getting closer and would need a huge adjustment to get to that solution.

@Bob Chill was 100% right about the relax. Ive not been concerned about it and thought it would be VERY brief, but now I'm starting to think it doesn't even happen at all. The higher heights are actually mostly from higher avg heights above the levels we give a crap about, the low and mid levels are reasonably cold, and the STJ is undercutting the pattern with a beautiful EPO/PNA ridge. We could get a snowstorm easy in what was supposed to be the "relax". Then all 3 major guidance systems transition back to a -AO/NAO regime with the STJ undercutting a EPO/PNA ridge. That is the "it" look and it holds for the whole month of Feb on all guidance. I am glad I didn't lower my seasonal snowfall totals when I was thinking about it a week or two ago.

at least its trending the right direction the last 3 runs imo.

But that progression would set up an overrunning type threat around the 23-25th so either way we have multiple paths to win in this pattern which is what I like. We usually fail when we need everything to go "exactly one way". Unfortunately when we all decided to live here we chose to spend all our cap money on other areas and left ourselves with a drunk placekicker with balance issues. We need REALLY wide goalposts if we want to win usually.

In this situation what is really creating the snow is the moisture transport across the arctic boundary. This isn't a coma head scenario. We just haven't had an arctic boundary near us to have this kind of set up in so long its not something we are familiar with. But with that kind of boundary all you need is to get some modest moisture transport across the arctic front and it will wring out every drop of moisture into super high ratio pow pow. If you look at the mid level plots from hour 120 and 126 you see there is enough backing in the flow along the front to get the mid level flow across the boundary. Boom. We don't need a super deep or perfect track coastal storm for that to work. Just an amplified enough SW along the boundary to get that cross boundary moisture transport in the mid levels. It's almost like an anafront setup actually. But in this case along the arctic boundary which has much more potential.

Don't be greedy this run was damn near perfect, cold smoke event for everyone. Yea we could root for more amplified but that could introduce other issues. Obviously we don't get the option but I would stick with this run if I could.

but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified.

@stormtracker its really hard imo to get an early read here because the SW that shows up first around 72 hours isn't the one we want to be the storm...its the next one which until later is still a part of the TPV rotating mess up top that splits off around hour 100 and dives in. Until we get a look at how its oriented its hard to tell much.

We need the guidance to resolve the cutter. Not sure exactly when they will do that, but until the details with how that affects the ultimate orientation of the TPV which will affect all these moving parts involved in this "threat" we wont have any clarity.

I agree with this. Initially there was no trailing wave of note, and that was why a few days ago I was pretty blah about this threat...I just didn't see much potential from that lead wave. It's positioned right under the TPV, the only way to get it to be much would be to phase and amplify but that would cut it too far NW of us given the location of the boundary and the lack of any confluence in front. Now if this keys on that second wave...its a whole different situation. The front clears the area, we have some confluence created by the lead wave, and that second one has more room to amplify.

FWIW we got back the gefs extended and now all 3 extended systems show us going into a perfect pattern by Jan 30 and rolling through Feb with it. Op gfs shows how we cold even snow during the “relax” because there is a lot of cold left around.

It’s a good sign that no one has even mentioned the 6z gfs had a PD2 type storm out in unicorn land.

Bob just alluded to this also. I’m not a huge fan of the big pna ridge when there is blocking. It’s critical in a hostile Atlantic. No way we snow with a +nao and -pna. But a lot of our best Nino snow periods came with a nao block and -pna. It prevents the NS from squashing or running interference. It can work. Dec 2009 was a pna ridge. But remember that wasn’t a long lead tracking storm. From 5+ days there were doubts it would come together. Because of the pna ridge we needed NS energy to dive in and phase. A huge PNA ridge guarantees the NS will be diving in over us and means we need it to play nice. Opens up phasing issues and all that jazz. I tend to prefer the simple route of a system crashing into the southwest sliding east under a quiet split flow with the NS out of the Fng way and the the stj system having room to amplify and attack the blocked in cold in the east. That’s the least complicated path to snow in a Nino. You’re right. The control is run off the same unperturbed data as the op but at a lower resolution. It’s the unperturbed base for the ensemble members. It tends to be pretty identical to the op out to about day 7 then they often start to diverge some due to the resolution differences. Bob ninjad me. I don’t know. If we get the huge epo pna ridge some guidance shows maybe. That has a lot of upside but some risk of suppression and miller b type outcomes also. I doubt we would be skunked but 1969 is an example of how that can be less epic here. We got some snowstorms but New England got smoked by late developing miller b storms that gave our area 3-6” and them 2-3 feet. It’s the huge pinwheel on top of us dominating the whole flow. You can’t miss it. Right now it’s up on NW Canada which is bad and why all the cutters. But the storm this weekend phases all the prices of energy together and consolidates into one monster vortex right on top of us. Look at an h5 map you won’t miss it.

People should stop worrying about each run in general given this setup. We have a monster amplified wave in front of it. The kind that can impact the hemispheric long wave pattern. Then we have a tpv sitting over us with 700 pieces of NS energy rotating around it while an STJ wave comes along just for fun. We’re going to keep getting different looks every op run until we get closer and the cutter is 100% resolved. Even then this is the type of scenario with short range bust potential either way.

They are better in a Nino because often in Nino split flow regimes the northern stream is quiet and if no TPV gets displaced into our area a non factor. 2010 and 2016 were like that. Models have a much easier time resolving stj systems. They are less stochastic. But this still a NS dominant pattern. The tpv getting displaced above us created that. A couple weeks ago I said I might prefer not having a tpv there. Yes it makes this a colder pattern but it opens the door to complications like suppression from NS waves running interference, miller b scenarios or phased bombs that cut despite a -nao. This isn’t the typical stj dominant Nino pattern.

Pretty sure everyone has him on ignore.

I actually agree with this. This isnt good. Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB. End times man, end times.

I feel a lot better than I did coming into today. The flavor of this threat changed in a way I wasn't expecting...and it was a favorable change for a change.

it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat.

man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.

The lead wave is problematic because its directly under the TPV which is tricky and most likely either squashed or would take a phase which would cut it west. The trailing wave is behind the TPV initially which is where we want a wave to be on approach.

This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday.

OMFG