psuhoffman

But I’m done with worrying about it. I won’t be surprised either way at this point. Was today just a one last fluke tease run on the way to a final rug pull or a real indication? Ehh. I don’t have the patience left to dig into it really. If we get multiple days of improvements and it gets into a more believable range I’ll jump back into it. For now we still have a legit chance for the wave I liked all along if we can get some minor adjustments. After that I’ll let the chips fall where they may.

Today shifted significantly better from yesterdays which were…

Most years I’d be very nervous. But this year there really hasn’t been any north trend once inside 100 hours. The storms that did shift north all did it way before now. Under 48 hours the trend has been south really. Obviously every situation is different but the seasonal trend does matter some.

Thanks but not worth it

I’m pretty sure this will have a zone of 4-8”. Now whether that will end up over us is another issue.

I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others. Kuchera is actually better for this one.

That wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that would jack us

What about the other phone?

no this setup was always way too noisy to likely be a HECS event. The way this evolved was probably one of the best scenarios we could hope for. If this tracks right I really do think a 4-8" event is possible and short of getting lottery level lucky with a very complicated phasing scenario...that's about max potential this could have been IMO

at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60

All the STJ waves that tracked under us and could have been a big snowstorm were too warm

Oh it is, but no matter what Baltimore is only getting 5" because they aren't allowed to have warning events there anymore. @Maestrobjwaknows

check your ruler, you probably just mixed up the metric and standard sides

FWIW over the years I've noticed a tendancy for the NAM to be high on precip when the system involves convection or deep moisture and dry in situations like these.

This has sneaky upside. It's not really a clipper, its a progressive west to east wave that partially phases with the NS. It's trending more amplified, but I think there is a limit to how far north it can shift given the boundary. Lift looks maximized in the DGZ and mid level temps are cold. Get this into the .35-.55 qpf range and this could reasonably become a 4-8" sneaky snowstorm.

One thing I like about the euro, and some other guidance trended this way some at 12z, is it's amplifying the wave just enough to get a little better moisture transport across the thermal boundary and thus has a bit more uniform precip field. It also is a flush hit with that better precip field right over our area...but it would mean less extreme winners and losers and just a more uniform snowfall across the area. Not saying there wouldn't be the 5" v 3" type variability but would probably see less 5" to 1" type differences within small geographic areas within the precip field with the euro solution.

That isn't the UKMET's fault that's an issue with how the maps are generated. For whatever reason no US outlets provide quality maps for the UKMET.

The UKMET precip type maps on pivotal are awful. It works both ways...when the surface is cold they calculate ice as snow. Several times someone posted this crazy snow map all excited and I checked the thermals and was like "that's not snow". It also does this sometimes where because the surface is near 32 it calculates snow as rain. It seems to overly weight the surface for the precip type calculation. Just use the precip maps then look at the thermals and disregard the snow maps if you want to judge the UKMET.

Honestly I’d Ignore the southern qpf max. History suggests results there will be underwhelming. Focus on getting into that northern max. That’s where the goods will be.

Icon still has the duel banding feature but it doesn’t show on the snowfall because the southern qpf max is rain this run.

Yea. Let’s table the “will it ever snow again” question. I think the more accurate way to phrase what was answered this year was “is it likely we get a region wide cold/snowy winter in this current pacific cycle” and the answer is no. We probably have to wait for this PDO cycle to end for us to have a chance at a region wide 30”+ type winter.

Yes! Southwest flies out of IAD and DCA also but those aren’t hubs so flights are more limited. They have more at DCA than IAD unfortunately. Just for a general reference I was looking at flights to Denver the other day and BWI had 16 options, DCA 9 and IAD 2 for the day I looked at. Obviously for you that’s upside down but still worth looking into. The southwest app is super easy to use to swap flights and use points.

That’s still risky because there’s been an increase in western high elevation thaw/rain and freeze events mid winter lately. Fozz is right about open snow. They are great resource and warn of these events a week or two out usually. The other trick is to use southwest. I have a southwest credit account that earns miles and I literally charge everything I do and pay it off monthly to accrue enough points for 3-4 free flights a year! Plus Southwest lets you change plans up until 10 mins before your flight with no penalty. They have a ton of daily flights from BWI to Denver, SLC, Reno, Seattle, Spokane and Albuquerque. Hotels and car rentals are easy to find refundable reservations up until 72 or 48 hours. Yea it’s a pain to have to change all the reservations last minute but better than wasting all that money on crap conditions imo.