psuhoffman

@Bob Chill look familiar… that might be a worse jet extension! We got our first snowstorm 5 days after this period and it was cold smoke! Yes we were warm from Jan 15-25 that winter but as soon as the western trough split, part pulled back and the rest cut under and the nao tanked we didn’t need weeks. We immediately got cold and started to get snow. That caused our warmest period that winter. Remember @Ji complaining. But it also set off our snowiest 2 weeks ever immediately after. I could do this with many other years. Extreme jet extensions are the loading pattern for our snowiest periods in history. But the snow came 5 days after the western trough cut under not 5 weeks. That’s why I was annoyed when everyone was just tossing those perfect track waves in early January because “of course we can’t snow immediately after a torch”. Umm actually that’s how we got some of our huge snowy periods in history. Especially in a Nino!

Pac jet extensions are going to happen every winter. This isn’t some crazy rare thing. But lately we take weeks to recover. That’s the part that’s killing us and historically it’s not normal. Some of the best analogs to this winter a jet extension just like that set off the chain reaction that lead to a snow run. Usually a -pna comes before a blocking regime! But the snow wasn’t a month later. It’s was days to maybe a week at most later. We didn’t take weeks to recover. That’s what really killing is lately, the progression that historically leads to our best snow pattern is torching the continent so bad that we end up wasting most of the good pattern when it comes!

Oh so now the -nao is important.

I have one now

The difference between here and Baltimore becomes more extreme early and late. Since 2007 I’ve had 9 warning criteria snows in March and Baltimore only 2 I think. A few of those were really big storms here. And even ones that weren’t huge like the March 30 2014 8” Of super wet snow they fell in like 5 hours at the end of a storm was so much fun. March is a winter month up here. Not so much in the city.

Omg he wants a big storm. He’s said that. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” snow since 2016. I get his frustration and he is right the chances of a BIG snow go down in the city by March. People posting examples of 2-4” snows and snows that hit west of the fall line don’t really refute his point.

Probabilities are in his favor. The gfs progression has no support from the ggem or euro. They are way less amplified with the trough. Plus more than half the gfs members and op runs recently that do have a storm it’s just a perfect track rainstorm. So when you add it all up the chances of snow is low. But it’s all we have to track so it’s being talked about.

So far no can kick. Guidance the last 48 hours has slightly sped up the pattern progression by a day or two.

The extended guidance starts the transition around Feb 7. We have a transitional week to get to good from there. But we should start to see that process at the end of the ensembles within the next 72 hours. I’d not I’ll start to get a little nervous about a can kick which we can’t afford given the clock.

I think the guidance actually targeted this week from way way out. There was a torch in front of it which was never as bad as they indicated but we did get the 2 cutters.

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu you can waste a lot of time in there.

There was another event very late march 2014 where a deform at the end of a rainstorm flipped to snow. Dropped 8” here!

He was talking about getting a HECS. He is right. The odds go way down after about Feb 20 in Baltimore of a 12”+ storm. And they’ve only had a few warning criteria march snows the last 30 years. That is rare.

Don’t you live over 1000 feet? He lives in Baltimore.

Baltimore has had more than 10” in March 18 times. But…only 3 in the last 63 years! It happened 15 times in 68 years before that. But hey according to some on here that’s totally a coincidence and our snow climo is just cyclical not declining. So by that logic we are super super due!

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way.

Tell Stormy

Fair enough

Bait

You can do both. I haven’t complained one bit about the snow I got this week. I’ve had a great time with the kids. But I can shade a bigger storm also. I fail to see the conflict.

Go Ravens. Who Id like to see win the SB 1) ravens 2)Bills 3)Detroit 4) anyone but the 49ers!

Between both storms it was enough to finally do this

I don’t like the methodology behind that chart. It used way too many locations. And there is mention of the correlation value just the mean. The mean can be skewed by a huge storm somewhere.

As long as one of those small march events for you is my annual 10” wet snow bomb up here I’ll take it.

For those tracking we have a short window as the pna ridge first goes up before it spreads east to maybe sneak in a threat. Around the 30-31. After that the eps days the pattern flips back favorable around Feb 10-12. Gefs more like 15-18. Keep in mind I’m talking about the long wave pattern. If the continent gets torched and we need 2-3 weeks to build cold again after the pattern changes…well the the clock starts to become a problem! Let’s hope later in winter we can work with the crap air mass left behind or cold can build south faster!