psuhoffman

Given the marginal temps a thump scenario is our best simplest bet to get an area wide happy result.

I love that WXbell finally added this to their package. I was calculating it manually for a while but that was annoying. The median and snow probabilities show a much better representation of what guidance is predicting that the skewed means.

If you look at both the gefs and eps members there is a mix of all 3 possible outcomes. A 0z gfs ggem type sweet spot solution. some phasing and a primary with a NW solution A weak washed out solution It’s not shocking to see the 6z ops pull out from any of these camps. But it does seem the EPS as a whole took a step towards the option we want. All 3 camps still have support within the spread though.

On second viewing I do like the euro better. It lost the oh valley primary totally. It’s colder just now as much as we want. But I think it was heading in a better direction than the last 2 runs.

1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder.

Upon closer look it’s slightly colder than 12z. And a pretty good improvement from. 18z. The op only went to 90 but it was headed towards a train wreck and there is a reason mo one posted the 18z eps control. This was a decent step better than that. Slightly better than 12z imo. But not the big jump like the gfs/ggem/uk

It trended better with the high but in the end it’s still warm. Looks similar to 12z euro

At 83 seeing the same trends as gfs. Stronger high further west but it’s not as strong as gfs was. But euro was warmer to begin with.

About to find out but so far slightly better high pressure over the top. 1-2 mb stronger and anchored further west. Slightly weaker wave than previous euro stronger than gfs.

Out to 54 comparing to gfs. Slightly more confluence. Slightly weaker SW exiting the 4 corners.

I’m up but the SV peeps will be 5 mins ahead of me.

Except pac jet extensions set up epic snow runs in some of the past Nino analogs. That pack looks fine. Should teleconnect to an eastern trough. Of course that was with a less torched pacific sst

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/joke

If the Icon and NAM came out last instead of first no one would ever look at them. It’s trying to secondary in response to that second piece of NS energy catching up. Just got done

The goalposts have been pretty narrow for day 5-7. It’s been shifting around but if you zoom out the idea wrt track and a snow event somewhere in the mid atl to northeast has been there. But we care a lot about what are the finer details that determine a 50 mile shift in the R/Sn. It wasn’t that long ago that a whole synoptic event track would shift hundreds of miles at this range run to run. I guess it’s all perspective and perception how you define this though.

I’m going to start specifying the parts of my posts you aren’t allowed to read. Here I fixed it for you. Try this again.

The ggem often plays follow the leader when it jumps around but att it does seem like maybe it’s actually leading the trends. Who knows. The delicate power play between all those western SWs is driving the guidance (and us) crazy. This is cool. Enjoy it. But until the details with those features stops shifting around every 12 hours don’t get too comfortable with any one specific projection. The general pattern idea has been there since day 15! The general synoptic look since day 7-8. Amazing with all the crap going on in the jet out west. But we need to finer details to get nailed down since we’re on a razors edge wrt thermals.

I forgot how exhausting this is.

No it’s a Nino. I want all the snow! Now. Later. Later when it’s now and now when it’s later. I want to steal Docs DeLorean so I can experience the now and later snow at the same damn time.

F$&! I was kinda looking forwards to a good nights sleep

Guess I need to go look at the gfs

Agreed but there should be blue! Yea it’s a trough. Ugh never mind. I think we will be fine.

You skip right to the negative of every post

this was never a super cold pattern. Yea our dominant flow is out if the NW and there is some arctic influence. But the main flow into Canada is off the pacific. Historically it’s cold enough though. But what happens if you keep warming the pacific? At some point does that equation just not work anymore? I’m just speculating. My guess is this is missing the trough. Washing it out with warmer members. But we might be headed eventually to a point where the pac is too warm for this to work. If that doesn’t work anymore then we’re left needing some epo pna ridge combo which is extremely rare. We got that in 2014. For a few weeks in Jan 2022. But that’s never been the most common path to our snow. Worse it’s not even a big snowstorm pattern it would be progressive because you usually cant have a block with that kind of full latitude epo pna ridge. I dont think we’re there yet. But if the pac keeps warming eventually that might become the reality.