psuhoffman

The models are not "trending" or bouncing around so much as the operationals are simply randomly popping out solutions that fall within the still existing camps if you examine their ensembles. One solution has now been completely eliminated and that was the phased amplified system with a primary into the Ohio valley. That idea is pretty much dead. But within the ensembles there are still 3 camps left. We want the middle ground. But it's well within probabilities for 2 or 3 operational models to pull a solution from the same camp (like last night) but its just random chance. The 3 camps still left A. A little too much amplitude and lingering primary and the main snow shield goes just NW of us. This is a messy one with not a lot of snow for anyone because the primary is weak, the phased amplified solution is gone. But this would take a lighter snow event up into PA. B. The in between option, GFS and GGEM op solutions from 0z and 12z. No primary at all, coastal is just amplified enough to produce a thump snow targeting just NW of the fall line C. A weak sheared out mess with no significant snow anywhere. This solution might target DC south with the best qpf but it won't work with the marginal temps. The 6z EPS took a move towards Camp B but there was still a mix of all 3. GEFS is still a mix of all 3. GEPS is all option A and B. I don't think the models have trended yet, they seem to still just be pulling random options from within these established goalposts run to run.

There was a SHARP cutoff with a storm Dec 5 2003. There was a WAA wave that came out first and thumped NW of 95, the costal developed a day later and mostly missed us and hit New England. But the WAA lead wave had some local similarities to this. I remember I got 7" in western Fairfax county and inside the beltway was pretty much all rain.

That is awesome. This is a pretty good took that has the whole country if you want to waste a lot of time. https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-hqf3/Baltimore/?center=39.43478%2C-77.33712&zoom=9

Given the marginal temps a thump scenario is our best simplest bet to get an area wide happy result.

I love that WXbell finally added this to their package. I was calculating it manually for a while but that was annoying. The median and snow probabilities show a much better representation of what guidance is predicting that the skewed means.

If you look at both the gefs and eps members there is a mix of all 3 possible outcomes. A 0z gfs ggem type sweet spot solution. some phasing and a primary with a NW solution A weak washed out solution It’s not shocking to see the 6z ops pull out from any of these camps. But it does seem the EPS as a whole took a step towards the option we want. All 3 camps still have support within the spread though.

On second viewing I do like the euro better. It lost the oh valley primary totally. It’s colder just now as much as we want. But I think it was heading in a better direction than the last 2 runs.

1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder.

Upon closer look it’s slightly colder than 12z. And a pretty good improvement from. 18z. The op only went to 90 but it was headed towards a train wreck and there is a reason mo one posted the 18z eps control. This was a decent step better than that. Slightly better than 12z imo. But not the big jump like the gfs/ggem/uk

It trended better with the high but in the end it’s still warm. Looks similar to 12z euro

At 83 seeing the same trends as gfs. Stronger high further west but it’s not as strong as gfs was. But euro was warmer to begin with.

About to find out but so far slightly better high pressure over the top. 1-2 mb stronger and anchored further west. Slightly weaker wave than previous euro stronger than gfs.

Out to 54 comparing to gfs. Slightly more confluence. Slightly weaker SW exiting the 4 corners.

I’m up but the SV peeps will be 5 mins ahead of me.

Except pac jet extensions set up epic snow runs in some of the past Nino analogs. That pack looks fine. Should teleconnect to an eastern trough. Of course that was with a less torched pacific sst

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/joke

If the Icon and NAM came out last instead of first no one would ever look at them. It’s trying to secondary in response to that second piece of NS energy catching up. Just got done

The goalposts have been pretty narrow for day 5-7. It’s been shifting around but if you zoom out the idea wrt track and a snow event somewhere in the mid atl to northeast has been there. But we care a lot about what are the finer details that determine a 50 mile shift in the R/Sn. It wasn’t that long ago that a whole synoptic event track would shift hundreds of miles at this range run to run. I guess it’s all perspective and perception how you define this though.

I’m going to start specifying the parts of my posts you aren’t allowed to read. Here I fixed it for you. Try this again.

The ggem often plays follow the leader when it jumps around but att it does seem like maybe it’s actually leading the trends. Who knows. The delicate power play between all those western SWs is driving the guidance (and us) crazy. This is cool. Enjoy it. But until the details with those features stops shifting around every 12 hours don’t get too comfortable with any one specific projection. The general pattern idea has been there since day 15! The general synoptic look since day 7-8. Amazing with all the crap going on in the jet out west. But we need to finer details to get nailed down since we’re on a razors edge wrt thermals.

I forgot how exhausting this is.

No it’s a Nino. I want all the snow! Now. Later. Later when it’s now and now when it’s later. I want to steal Docs DeLorean so I can experience the now and later snow at the same damn time.

F$&! I was kinda looking forwards to a good nights sleep

Guess I need to go look at the gfs