psuhoffman

It’s not surprising if something pops up during a week with this mean pattern That’s pretty text book and it’s January now. No more “too early” excuses. It would be kinda a bummer if we didn’t at least get a close call from that. It is nice to see some ops saying that still works though.

Definitely Canaan Valley area. They get more snow than anywhere within 4 hours except maybe Snowshoe but you can't really buy there...the towns are in valleys and the resort itself is all corporate owned condos at the top. The best place you can actually own a home would be Canaan Valley. Somewhere near the two ski resorts there.

EPS made a similar improvement in the long range. Actually shows signs of cutting energy under the NAO through the 50/50 which is the last step to making that a good snowstorm look here.

Thanks for the kind words...but its just frustration with our current situation. Our area is in the midst of several historic snow droughts. Several places have now gone the longest without an inch of snow in recorded history! Baltimore City has gone 8 years without a 6" snowstorm! And many of our regional reporting stations have had the least snowy 7 year period in recorded history. I think objectively the last 7 years have been the worst snow period in our regions history. Add to that this year offers legitimate potential to break out of it. Our first moderate or stronger Nino in 8 years. Add to that a -QBO, solar cycle phase, and long range guidance predictions of blocking and there is serious hope and expectations this year will break us out of this funk. So anyone coming along raining on that parade, even if its with sound scientific analysis and factual data, is going to be met with a LOT of hostility! Notice when I analyze a good run of the long range guidance I get 25 likes... the same exact analysis of the same guidance when its not good and I get a bunch of "why are you talking about that, it's long range, what are you looking at that tool, why are you saying this over and over". Funny no one says any of that when I post something that looks good and say how awesome it is. I get it. It's ok.

Did someone put out an APB? Seriously that seems about what I expected.

Also a significant trend the way we want on the GEPS. It got 75% of the way to where we want in one run! look at the improvement in the N Pacific and High latitudes. I was hoping to see incremental improvement today but these were huge jumps in the right direction.

This is NOT intended to criticize that look. It’s good. This is meant to say how close it’s getting to PERFECT. In 24 hours it’s trended 75% of the way there already. But get those 2 anomalies centered where the Xs are and it’s the analog to every HECS DC to NYC storm! It’s heading that way.

I don’t see any way this works if that western trough is as progressive as the euro says. We would need the 50/50 to move out to create space but that would least to rain anyways. We need the gfs to win that part of this fight.

Ironically they’re both opposite they’re old school biases right now.

“Let me comment on it, wait why are you talking about this”. 90% of my posts are replies to someone else who commented on it. If people don’t want to talk about it then DONT TALK ABOUT IT!

It’s the flow not the pressure that’s causing the suppression. The long wave pattern which was correctly identified by guidance from like 3-4 weeks out is what creates the threat. The specifics that will determine how that threat evolves and if it snows here can’t be known until shorter leads. Those are two completely different things. Long range pattern identification v a medium range synoptic forecast How much of that has to do with the euro crashing the western system into the party. Seems just from a glance the western energy links up with the NS SW that the gfs is instead partially phasing with our threat. Once that happens it hangs out STJ energy out to dry.

But you’re acting as if more isn’t an option. I’m not choosing nothing over some 3” storm. I’m saying this year has more potential than that and we shouldn’t settle. It’s a -QBO, non east based Nino during an ascending solar cycle. That’s the freaking holy grail! This setup might come along once every 10-15 years! We’re facing another Nina cycle soon! This very well might be our only only chance at an above avg snowfall season for a while. Why should we call uncle and settle for more scraps? I don’t give up so easily.

I didn’t post the control to say “this is what’s going to happen”. I clearly said I DONT believe it. But at day 15 it matched the pattern some, including you, said wasn’t so bad and would be transient. I disagreed, what I saw was actually the pattern regressing the wrong way. I was using the control to show that the pattern on yesterdays day 15 guidance wasn’t heading the right direction. Thoth the eps and gfs ext show the same progression I used to control because it showed the details. We’re on the same team. My forecast was even more bullish. I was just saying neither of us want the pattern to look like it did on yesterdays day 15. I don’t think it will. Today is perhaps the start of the move away from that cliff. That’s all. All we need to make that Atlantic work is for something to cut under the nao ridge effectively splitting it off from the ridge further south. Honestly the heights near 50:50 are more important than the nao. It’s just an nao ridge is one way to promote lower heights in that domain. But there are lots of examples of snow here from a rogue 50/50 absent a -nao. Not so much with a -nao that also has ridging in the 50/50. It’s not far from a good look but that subtle difference makes a huge difference in our chances to have a cold enough antecedent airmass and promote a suppressed storm track.

It’s better but still not ideal for a snowstorm. But it’s heading towards what we want for sure. You know we are hunting different things. That look could work if you just want a chance at s SWFE. Not if we want a bigger storm. If we were in a Nina I’d be thrilled with that look. But it’s a Nino. I’m big game hunting. Not interested in the squirrels.

That is getting way closer to what we want, uts definitely workable as is, and it’s a slight “pinwheel” retrogression in that nao and associated drop SE of the mid lat trough from becoming REALLY good. I know it’s subtle but the key is getting the trough out of western Canada. Everything will cut with it anchored there. Ideally the best look for snow in the mid Atlantic is when the positive over the top is anchored west of the negative to the south. That’s not far from that if the trough trends any further east and can get a wave break in the 50/50. That’s the trend we want to see for mid January.

You’re right and it definitely trended that way from 6z. I hadn’t even looked at that run! But unfortunately the orientation of that vortex will wobble around on guidance a lot from this range. I’m more focused on the trend across several runs wrt the amplitude of all 3 features. Generalizing I think we want 1)stronger 50/50 (to a point there is obviously a limit but it’s a pretty marginal airmass we need that feature) 2) stronger SW associated with our system 3) weaker western system, more cut off, further west So far the trend the last 24 hours has actually been in that direction with all 3 variables so I’m happy. I’m not digging any deeper into the weeds than that for the lead we’re at.

Oh no you didn’t. I seem to remember someone whining in between all those HECSs in 2010 then when we missed on that threat in March said “it ruined the winter” to end that way. Who was that again??? Im just teasing ya and you’re right about me being fringed. We don’t want it north at this point.

This is also an example of the limitations of long range forecasting. The subtle differences between those two looks can’t possibly show up on long range ensembles no matter how perfectly they get the basic pattern correct. But they are the difference between whether this period we identified weeks ago produces snow or not. Get the pattern first. Then still have to hope we get luck with the details on a specific synoptic threat once they come in range.

Over the last 24 hours the 50/50 actually trended stronger but so did the SW responsible for the threat and the western trough backed off a little creating more space and even some ridging out west as it’s approaching. Exactly the two trends we need to continue.

Definitely. Last night we were discussing the spacing and how it needs more room but unfortunately that room has to come on the back end. We need that 50/50 to go ape to be cold enough.

It’s a delicate balance between the waves in front and behind. Guidance will bounce around a lot here. This isn’t a simple setup where nothing is running interference with the STJ wave and models can lock in 8 days out.

I think it’s hard to moderate a ton of storm threats. But I thought maybe people would be happy if we broke the generic long range pattern discussion stuff off. Had “long range pattern” and “long range threats” threads. So those who want to focus on a day 7 threat without hearing about what the day 15 long wave pattern looks like can be happy.

Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins. That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens.