psuhoffman

maybe the holding back energy thing...because I was comparing it to the GGEM just now and you're right about the kicker, but the GGEM is significantly faster than the euro and already has the SW up near PA while the Euro is way back in the MS valley. That creates a spacing issue with that kicker maybe? THe GFS is slower like the euro but that doesn't matter as much because the kicker isn't there. So maybe there are a few moving parts here but the idea is if the kicker is there then the progression can't be slower.

I guess but I thought people were making way too much of the 12z and 18z eps. I thought they both looked like crap and supported an OTS solution. The mean was propped up by a few amplified outliers but the probabilities for snow and precip were very low. THere were just enough amplified solutions to make the mean look better than the op but the majority camp was a coastal scraper solution.

I know @Terpeast pointed that out but then noted it was there even on the good euro runs yesterday. But I was thinking, those runs were keying on a different wave than all guidance is now. That wave is suppressed across all guidance now. But that lead wave had more separation and was developing on the front side of the trough and didn't necessarily need as much amplification to work, it was almost like a glorified anafront wave. This situation is more dynamic but requires a more amplified wave to work, its having to energize a stagnant boundary further southeast. Maybe once the euro realized that lead wave is not the one and started to key on the trailing wave...that is when that kicker became an issue. So it might be that kicker after all that is the issue. I don't see any other reason why the wave is so much less amplified on the euro v all other guidance. That is the one factor that is so different and sticks out.

I am not favoring the euro per say, but what is disappointing is all other guidance finally started to converge somewhat tonight. Had the euro come in line my confidence really would have increased. You're right the euro is not so much better that you take it when its in opposition to all other guidance (it does have the ICON lol). But it is still the best model and if one was going to be the crazy uncle I would rather it not be the euro. Confidence remains low until it gets back in the fold.

He is definitely an optimist...but we have enough pessimists on here so...

Comparing the euro to all other guidance...I think its pretty simple actually. Everything else is just significantly more amplified with that trailing SW diving in.

It hasn't snowed at all in 2 years maybe lol

Naw, minor improvements from 12z but this isn't gonna get it done. It's significantly flatter than everything else.

I see minor improvements so far, TPV is oriented in a less suppressive way, energy is a bit more consolidated at the back of the trough...but the second wave is also a bit stronger which isn't good if we are looking for a GFS trailing wave solution. I don't know how much difference those first two factors will have either, its relatively minor changes and 12z was a disaster so...

In fairness maybe they were just ahead of the curve, that 05 winter would be EPIC now

they talking about before 1996 or 2003?

OK I'm back... After digesting all the 0z guidance and ensembles... if the euro can get on board tonight we might finally have consensus. The GGEM op is a major outlier even among its own ensembles. UKMET is the most amplified solution which is no shock if you follow the UKMET at all. But other than the GGEM op everything else is within a more narrow envelope of solutions now tonight. If the euro comes in with something within the same envelope in 20 mins my confidence that we have a good chance to end the streak will go up significantly.

Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit...

you Ninja'd me. But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one. It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous. That is bust city right there. But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development.

I like the 0z GEFS more, and I liked the 18z GEFS a lot! It has more members keying on that second wave...but actually has a cleaner phase and gets the coastal going sooner without that weird jump thing where the initial wave almost takes the boundary off and the low has to redevelop west. That was a really messy progression on the op. But the GEFS indicates a move towards the slower progression with the 3rd wave being dominant but a cleaner coastal development. If we actually can get the 3rd wave to work it has the highest upside. Way less risk of a cutter or thermal issues, more room to amplify, stronger NS wave... It moved towards a better scenario imo. I don't know what to make of the GGEM though, hopefully its just off on a tangent. Not that unusual for the ggem.

It was initially. It’s a totally different wave than the one that hit us on 18z run. It squashed that then develops the one behind it.

@Terpeast@stormtracker it actually moved towards Heisys trailing wave idea. And sorta pulled it off in a messy way. This was a big change I’ll reserve my judgement until the rest of 0z. But my fear is we get stuck between solutions and all 3 waves rotating around just run interference with each other. We need one to be dominant. The lead can’t imo. But we’ve seen runs that work now with either the 2nd or 3rd.

No I meant exactly what I said. He does an over the top plot line EVERY threat. And he had been in decline since 2003

JB just pulled out Jan 96 as an analog to Tuesday. lol there are no words. He just has to jump the shark every time. Every damn time.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

All 5 examples sucked in DC. Last one was 3”. The only thing interesting would be the weenie meltdowns in here. We haven’t had a snowy La Niña in 24 years! And the only 2 in the last 50 years were +pdo -QBO winters!

Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it

Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams

I remember they sent us to school in NJ expecting rain. I have a vivid memory of boarding a bus in a very chaotic early release while it was pouring snow and getting deep. I know from reading analysis of that storm they expected the mid level warmth to push further NW given the lack of a high but the low tracked a little further east and was so intense that dynamic cooling offset the warming until the dryslot.