psuhoffman

IMO our best hope is that as the MJO progresses (if) back into the central pacific it kicks the ridge out and we re-establish a trough near the Aleutians. Then we would get a split flow with the western energy cutting under the block into the east. The timing of that is now betting pushed back towards February though realistically. That's still plenty of time though...for anyone still left alive after the blood bath this place will turn into by then!

I think his data is running a 50 year regression not using the 30 year averages, plus its possible those were localized anomalies due the lake effect that might not show up on that coarse map.

Look at the December 1982 SST anomalies. That was one of the most east based nino's ever. I would think we should get a more prolonged favorable pattern. That year was similar to 1998 except we got just cold enough at just exactly the right time to get one of the precip bombs to be snow. Again, if this season fails its not because of enso.

Yes but a basin wide event like 2003, 2010, and 2016 is significantly more favorable for us historically than a more east based event like 1998 or 2007. By including them with the pure east based events it skews the data imo. Pure east based Nino's are pretty bad but this is clearly NOT that. It's not a pure modoki but frankly I see little distinction between the modoki and basin wide. There are some that have mistakenly characterized basin wide as modoki. 2015 and 2005 were pure modoki seasons and 2003, 2010, and 2016 were snowier on average in the mid atlantic.

If we can get the pac to back off at all I think our chances are high still. I am acknowledging I am more nervous now than I was a month ago but I have by no means given up and put together my "time of death" winter call yet. I still think this works out. Just less sure than I was. As for the age thing...yea its frustrating but I can compartmentalize. I come on here, track, kill time, and in the moment when I analyze and dont see what I want its frustrating...then I log off and go do other stuff and it doesn't affect me at all.

He is trolling you, not worth it.

Cascades and Canada. Brian Brettschneder shared this on twitter last year. It's pretty bleak. The positive anomalies along the east coast are due to all those HECS storms from 1996 to 2016. The median is tanking here though for sure and if we don't get another HECS soon that blue will disappear, might have already given the last season isn't factored into that.

came in like a bull in a china shop eh

I generally agree with your points but this chart isnt totally applicable because this is not an east based Nino. It's a basin wide nino. Look at my last post above at the current anomalies compared to two recent basin wide events. Nearly identical.

Nobody and I mean NOBODY said this was a Modoki/CP nino. It is a basin wide though NOT east based like some of the warminista crew is trying to classify. By far the two best matches wrt the composition (not the strength but WHERE the anomalies are located) are Dec 2009 and 2015. 2009 was weaker and 2015 was stronger but both were almost identical in terms of the way the enso anomalies were situated. And both featured a reasonably cold January in the east, or at least some pretty good periods. If this season goes off the rails it wont be because of enso, it will be because of other factors. Now Dec 2015 Dec 2009

Thanks for this. Our best hope is still when the mjo cycles back to 8/1/2. Just a thought that was in the back of my mind but I kept to myself because I didn’t want to contradict my forecast or start a shitstorm but since the thread is a total disaster now anyways… what if the warmer pacific has set up a no win scenario when a jet extension floods the continent with pac puke but a jet retraction leads to a super pac ridge which creates a deep -pna. Neither works for us.

Yes, back in 2019 they teased us with a constant epic -nao eastern trough look that was forever 20 days away. Sometimes it would get as close as day 12 or so then suddenly morph into the -pna look and we were back to day 20. We kept falling for it through December and early Jan. Then when they did one more rug pull mid January was when I think we all caught on. The weeklies continued to tease the good pattern day 20+ through Feb but we started to ignore it by then. It never came to fruiting. The Nina base state kept shifting it towards the pna TNH pattern.

It is what it is. I've seen troubling signs that have started to make me a little nervous regarding my expectations for this winter for a while now. But I tried to keep it on the down low because I knew what the reaction would be. Unfortunately I've been on here way too long and everyone knows my tells, and I am not particularly good at hiding my thoughts. I am not convinced it's all going sideways yet. There is time to pull out of this. Maybe, just maybe, the pacific ridge is temporary and we simply can't see past it yet. I did think that honestly and still think its a strong possibility. But the amplitude of that ridge is starting to really go ape on the long range guidance, and the forcing is getting stuck in the MC again like the last few years. Frankly I am seeing a lot of similarities to what happened in 2019 and it bothers me. We did "OK" wrt snowfall that year but a lot of that came early in January during a flux in the pattern, once the pacific ridge set in it was pretty crappy the rest of the winter. The euro is better but honestly I don't love where its trending either. I think your weeklies post was legit and I don't know why so many took issue with it. The weeklies for a long time showed the pattern we wanted setting in by late December. Then it pushed it to mid January. And now its punting January but has that look in February. That pattern disturbs me, its exactly what happened in 2019. I know the running theory, and I fully bought into it also so I am at fault here too, was that the issue was the nino was too weak. But what if the issue has nothing to do with enso and we are trying to mitigate something with other things when the only solution is for the root cause to stop which is more rooted in the pattern AROUND enso not enso itself!

this seems to be the exact kind of post I said didn't belong in this thread, but thanks. You could have told me this in banter or the "will it snow again" thread. My main post was purely about the pattern... then we get 500 replies about what our expectations should be or whether I am being fair holding us to whatever "good" standard I used to pick my analog pattern. Then I reply and get told I am derailing the thread.

I agree a broad bowl shaped trough is better... but we want the main trough axis to be in the east and the lowest height anomalies to be centered to our south not our northwest. We can do good with a full CONUS trough with some -PNA in a split flow so long as the deeper end of the trough is in the east and centered south of us. That look people were posting from the long range ensemble guidance is a broad trough but its centered way too far west and would put us on the warm side of almost any amplified wave.

I saw a flock of geese flying north today...

There is a lot loaded in this... First of all my post was not directed at you. Because I know where you and I disagree, and its simply about expectations and what we find acceptable. And that is ok. I don't begrudge you what you prefer. But that is not true of everyone. There were definitely some posts to the effect of "that pattern can be good". And we've heard that numerous times over the last 7 years and it just isn't true. Now I guess we could argue over what "good" is but my bar is an above avg snowfall season. If your definition of good is lower that is fine but we are arguing apples and oranges then. But I did not use 40" I used 25". And I only cut it off there because I was limited to 20 seasons. I could lower it to 20" and it wouldn't change the pattern look or my point at all! Thank you this was exactly how I feel and better than I could have articulated it. We can have this debate. It's an interesting one to me, but probably not to most so I didn't want to reply in the main thread. Why is 25" at BWI in a -AO Nino unrealistic? That is actually below average snowfall for a nino! Discount the "nino" part and 25" has happened once every 2.9 years on average in Baltimore! So over the longer period of record I am talking about something that should happen about 1 in 3 years. The next part isn't really "fair" to you but this is a larger forum wide discussion, not a personal one, but there are 2 threads of thought going on simultaneously here. I am both analyzing trying to get a big snowfall season, but also trying to prove my point that I believe our snowfall climo has degraded more than "some" want to admit. You can't have it both ways. Not you personally but I mean they can't try to argue I'm crazy and our snow climo is fine and its just been bad luck...then someone else say its not fair when I hold us to the same snow standard and expectations we have had historically. I agree with you that its likely our normal is radically lower than the numbers I am quoting but that kinda proves my other point and many are not ready to concede that yet! Can't have it both ways. Lastly, there are likely so personal preferences here that lead to this conflict in expectations. One is my location v yours. Some of the best seasons for 95 and especially NW of there aren't so good for you. Your location near the coast makes a progressive wave gradient pattern actually more appealing. It eliminates the boundary layer temp issues that become an issue in coastals and blocking patterns. But for places like me those patters are absolute utter BS crap on a stick. They are mostly SWFE so I lose the upslope that makes my area jack in almost any coastal storm. And they are unlikely to be storms that hit in strings so they never lead to an above avg season for the whole region. Your area can luck into an above avg season with one or two hits because your avg is so low but on the whole those types of patterns will never be a region wide big snow year. Given my location why would I want that type of pattern? I will never get anywhere close to avg snowfall in that kind of look. Neither will IAD or Winchester or anyone NW of the fall line. Lastly, its about what I like to track. It's not just about snow to me its also the fun of the chase and tracking. Progressive waves in a gradient pattern suck. They are no fun to track. You can't really identify a discrete threat from any kind of range and they are really a fluke thread the needle thing. And in the short range they are boring. They aren't dynamic events. There is no deform band to try to nail down, no changover line to get right, no thunder snow to root for. They are just awful from a tracking stand point. You are entitled to any expectations you want. I don't mind your expectations. But no I won't ever be happy if the best we can do is root to get lucky once in a while in a progressive wave pattern. That is no fun for me on any level. Frankly if we come to the point where I accept that's what its come to and the time of getting epic periods from a -NAO eastern trough pattern are gone for good...I will likely just stop actively tracking. I spent the good part of two winters in NC many years ago and I didn't bother to track. Ironically they got more snow when I was there those years than we have here recently, but I didn't waste my time tracking weather in hopes of getting one or two random snows. I knew how unlikely it was to really get much snow so I didn't waste my time. I will come to that point here pretty soon if things don't turn around. I am already not tracking nearly as much as I used to. I never stay up late anymore for a model run. I sometimes go a while day without doing much analysis myself and just check the posts here. I am already starting to lose interest. ETA: I don't need to have an lot of snow every season to stay interested...not even every few years...but if we can't get a truly snowy period or an HECS level storm (one or the other) at least a couple times a decade then I'll lose interest and find other things to occupy my time until I can move somewhere that does.

I don't think so because the whole pacific is warm around it, which is also making the Nina's worse since it increases the gradient which is more important than the raw anomalies.

It's subtle but the EPS look is way more workable than the GEFS. Subtle longwave changes make all the difference for a specific location. I would still argue that look isn't great if we want a big season, but its certainly workable if we just want to get some snow. The GEFS look is pretty bad.

We should take all the comments regarding our feelings towards the pattern to banter or my “will it ever snow” thread. I didn’t mean to start this bickering. I was trying to point out what our snowy patterns look like and what does and doesn’t work if we want a 25” plus season. I didn’t mean to start a debate about how we feel about that or what is or isn’t realistic expectations. I’m interested in that debate too but it doesn’t belong here.

Because the analog set limits you to 20 seasons and only goes back to 1950. I would have gone back further if I could. If we use Baltimores full period of record it’s happened 49 times in 140 years for an average of once every 2.9 years. That’s even more frequent than the number I quoted. I promise I was not trying to skew the data. I just can’t do an analog set for the whole period of record but it wouldn’t change the point. If anything it would make it more pronounced.

A couple points to clarify my earlier post. I should have explained in my post the reason a -nao is worse in a -pna TNH pattern is the SER links with the nao as a full lat WAR. I’m not talking about a Nino split flow -pna but a full latitude Nina like western trough. A -nao block works to suppress storms if systems are forced under and through the 50/50 space. But with a full latitude trough in the west systems cut west of the nao and pump the SE ridge. The nao acts like a WAR even if it extends into the nao domain. There is no suppressive mechanism in the flow. A positive nao can be better if the tpv gets displaced south a bit. Then it can act as a suppressive agent. It doesn’t work often. Typically we’re pretty screwed with a western trough but a positive nao with a tpv displaced into Canada to our north is one way that has rarely worked out. RARELY being the key. Second, with a -AO that look isn’t a total shutout look like 2020 and 2023. A -pna TNH +AO is the trifecta that causes most of our total shutout (or close to it say below 5”) seasons. A -PNA TNH -AO pattern won’t be a complete shutout. We likely would luck into a progressive wave or two. Some secondary development. Or a weaker wave timed up behind a cutter. But it won’t lead to a snowy winter on the whole. It’s not as bad as 2020 or last year but it would be a hell of a way to spoil a -AO Nino and turn what would normally be our best shot at a big snowfall season into a below avg one!

I am fine with it either way. It doesn't bother me the way it is now...but I get the sense it does bother some. Especially when there are some threats day 5-10 that have potential and they have to see pessimistic posts about day 15-20

see my post above

I wanted to illustrate what I am talking about regarding what we want and more importantly DONT WANT regarding the longwave patter for snow. Instead of cluttering up the thread with a bunch of replies I thought I would lay this out in one thread with evidence to support what I am saying. This is the mean H5 for every 25" snowfall winter at BWI since 1958. From 1958 to 2016 there were 19 of those, a mean of 1 every 3 years! So I did not only select our EPIC winters...these are basically all the good and great winters. I did not want to be super selective. These winters used to happen pretty regularly. This is the "what we want" pattern for the winter Try to ignore the overall heights because they are skewed colder by the years prior to 1980 when heights in general were much lower on average. But try to look at where the lower and higher heights are centered and angled...what the longwave pattern looks like. To make it even easier I pulled out the years prior to 1980 below...still the same pattern though just with higher heights in general so closer to what it would look like today on guidance now. The major take away...we want the lower heights centerer SOUTH OF US...not to our northwest. We do NOT under any circumstances want lower heights centered in wester canada, that's where we want a ridge. All this canada is warm talk is annoying because Canada is warm in almost all of our snowy winters. We are way to far southeast and close to the Atlantic and with Gulf influence for a pattern with a mean trough position to our northwest to work for us. Look at the current day 16 GEFS It's the antilog to our snowy years...everything is opposite where we want it in terms of the trough/ridge axis in the long wave pattern. Frankly that is even further NW than Detroit wants...this is the analog for Detroits snowiest winters... Even they want the trough axis and the ridge in the pac centered significantly further east than the guidance is showing. That is probably a great look for Chicago and Green bay on the GEFS. Also...some of those years for Detroit are ok here...we did ok, not great we got scraps compared to places to our NW but ok...but notice the NAO is positive! If we were going to try to make a long wave pattern with a trough to our west work we want the NAO positive! Our best chance is to have a TPV over us and once in a while it gets displaced a bit south and can act to suppress the waves. That's how 2014 worked! It's still super rare and isn't likely to lead to a good year...but at least an OK one, but a western trough with a negative NAO is actually EVEN WORSE! Lastly...2014 is an example of the very very rare case a trough to our NW worked out but notice the differences here Look at the NAO domain...again a negative displaced south to suppress the flow...we have a big positive there now, not going to work. And look at where the pacific ridge is and the downstream trough over N AMerica. There is a central pacific trough not ridge its just displaced southwest of where it typically is in our best years. This year was an anomaly. It's the ONLY season in the analog set where BWI got 25" of snow with a trough centered to the NW of us. THE ONLY ONE. And it had those very specific and odd features to go with it. A full latitude EPO/PNA ridge and a displaced TPV in eastern Canada. So we do NOT want a trough centered to our west under any circumstances. Only one time in 70 years has it lead to a snowy year and that season we had two other very specific features that we do NOT have this year. We want the trough to be centered south of us with higher heights in western canada! The complete opposite of that look some are saying is ok.