psuhoffman

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

That's how I took what he said...but sometimes it's hard to translate "Chuck" into human language Sorry for my mistake...

@stormtracker @CAPE @WxUSAF @Terpeast @Bob Chill Just a thought...what's your opinions of splitting this one thread into 2? One devoted to pattern discussion beyond 10 days...and one devoted to specific threats between day 3-10. Right now the two are lumped together in this "long range" thread and I think that can get annoying for those that are only interested in the analysis of the specific threats and don't want to have to deal with the super long range pattern discussions.

It did but it also had a raging positive AO. That combo is flatline to our winter snow chances. That's why I called TOD on the winter before New Years that year. It was over before it started. With a -AO there is slightly more variability to the pattern. It will dump cold into the CONUS but always to our west. It's a frustrating pattern because it will tease us in the long range but without a mechanism to suppress the storm track (the NAO there is more a WAR than a block) almost any amplified storm will cut west of us no matter what it shows day 10-15. We probably end up with some snow from some random progressive waves or a secondary development after a rainstorm. It's not a seasonal shutout kinda look that it would be if the AO was positive, but its definitely not a good look or one that could lead to an above avg snowfall year.

There is plenty of time for it to change, but he is correct that the wave spacing as shown on that run won't work.

Yea and yes, but we managed snowy winters in previous -pdo cycles. They were worse than +pdos but not nearly as bad as this current one.

Excellent post. But my example was a 4-8” storm and yours was a slushy coating for most. I guess I should have been more specific. Remember when we could luck into a warning snowfall in a bad pattern if enough meso factors broke our way. In my case study of all the 4” plus bwi snows I saw plenty of lucky fluke’s in an otherwise god awful pattern. You know what all of them had in common? They were a long time ago!

That is textbook -AO/-PNA/TNH

In the Macro the -PDO TNH loading pattern....with the dominant features being the pacific ridge, -PDO, SER/WAR. There has been some variability...mostly due to the AO. When the AO is positive or neutral its been an utter torch disaster with no cold anywhere south of Hudson Bay. When the AO goes negative we get cold dumping west of us and we can sometimes luck into a random progressive wave. But that is NEVER going to be a path to a snowy winter...the best we can hope for is to get lucky a couple times with waves and avoid a total snowless winter...but forget ever getting a legit snowy winter that way. 7 years is long enough to know what that is going to look like...the goalposts in that dominant longwave configuration are established and their between bad and worse. No animosity here...you can root for whatever you want...but I truly don't understand why we would want to take our chances with more of what has lead to the worst snow fail in history. ETA: remember I said anything less that above avg snow this year given the potential is a total and udder disaster fail. So when I say fail I am not saying no snow like last winter. I don't think that is on the table. I hope anyways. But if we revert to a -PDO TNH dominant pattern the thoughts of a big finish our off the table and that is a fail to me. So maybe we just disagree on what an acceptable outcome for this winter is. Lastly... to be fair, MAYBE adding a nino stj to this equation would increase the potential some...MAYBE. It didnt help much in 2019 once the PNA TNH took over...we were left trying to get scraps from progressive waves and it was mostly a fail. But MAYBE...id still rather not test that out.

it's marginally cold enough... by like the 5th wave since the long wave pattern actually changed. I say marginally because yes if everything goes perfectly wrt surface and upper level track and heavy enough precip...yes it will snow. But even then we have no margin for error. If the storm cuts at all...forget it. There is no depth to the cold even by then, we are left with a thread the needle scenario despite being about 10 days into a better longwave pattern by then. It's not horrible. I still expect better looks later. But its disapointing a little that even after a week and several waves the depth of the cold is barely good enough, IN A GOOD PATTERN! We used to be able to luck into snow in a bad pattern now we need to luck into it in a good one. The debate about the GEFS is silly because I think its just wrong...but I am annoyed by those that see the exact same long wave pattern that has been an utter and total worse snow period in our history fail for 7 years and are like...in my best Tommy Boy voice "hmmm its not so bad".

The period you’re referring to has been the least snowy in our region’s history. Why would we be rooting for that pattern to continue and expect better results?

Sorry I didn’t mean it to be snarky towards you. The point I was inarticulate in making was that even in a pattern that’s almost exactly what we wait for, in January, we’re looking for 10,000 things to break our way to be cold enough. That’s what it’s supposed to be like in a bad pattern. Remember when we used to actually luck into snow in a bad pattern. Like Feb 1997. Go look at that week where we got a 4-8” snow. It was a garbage pattern. But a few things broke out way and with a thread the needle perfect SW pass we got snow in an otherwise warm crap pattern. Now every crap pattern is a torch straight from Hades with no hope of snow anywhere within 500 miles of here and we need a million things to go right each in a great long wave pattern. I still think we get to better chances later but the early returns are disappointing. I didn’t say it was correct or permanent. I simply said that look right there wouldn’t be conducive to snow here. I haven’t did into today’s gfs package. Yesterday’s was troubling in that at the end the forcing was in a bad place and the pacific patter was regressing. It was not heading the right way. But I said I think it’s wrong. Todays run looks somewhat better but still not good at the end.

That’s slightly better than yesterday but still garbage. That isn’t a nao block it’s a WAR that extends into the nao domain. We’re on the eastern edge of the trough with no mechanism to stop any amplified wave from cutting. We could hope for a progressive wave but any strong storm would be rain.

When we get this… and it’s just not cold enough…I dunno am I the crazy one? And yes I know we’re recovering from a torch but isn’t that part of this same rinse repeat cycle where any warm up is a compete torch then when we get a better pattern it’s too warm. If it takes 2-3 weeks to recover how often do we get a good pattern to last that long? and if Mars is in alignment with Jupiter and the full harvest moon during a solar eclipse then maybe…

That ridge in AK and trough to the west combined with the -AO argues the trough should broaden and extend east.

It was an improvement but remember you want to use the probabilities not the mean to bet a better idea. Last year I did those probabilities after each run because the mean maps give an inflated idea that makes the ensembles look like they are predicting snow when they aren’t. Them people claim they suck and are always over predicting snow. for example the probability of 1” is only about 30% on that run. The mean is skewed high by the big hits. That was an improvement though so worth noting. I meant game over to get a truly snowy winter. Game over for my winter forecast. Not game over to get any snow at all. We would be back to the same place we’ve been the last 7 years trying to make a horrible long wave pattern work and praying to get table scraps and if we’re super super lucky maybe enough have an outside shot at having a not horrible winter. No thanks. I do think it’s wrong. But I took issue with some posts trying to minimize what the gefs was showing. Some “it’s not that bad and would be temporary” comments. It was that bad and wouldn’t be temporary. It wasn’t the transient ridge issue Chuck was freaking out about. That period came a week before the period we’re discussing. The forcing at the end of those gefs runs indicated the tropical forcing was stuck in the MC and going ape. Same issue we’ve had. The pac trough was retrograding completely out of the picture and the central pac ridge was going nuts. Also later when it updated the gefs extended confirmed my suspicions and locked that in for weeks! It was an awful run. And it wasn’t nearly as bad at day 16 as the runs were discussing! I was trying to drive home that even though I think it’s wrong don’t sugar coat the turd the gefs was spitting out. And even though I think it’s wrong I don’t want to see anything showing that crap look. That h5 is what I wake up at 4am screaming “good God Nooooo” No I love snow. But I do want to lay the groundwork so if we do fail I don’t have to hear more excuses from the “it’s just bad luck stick my head in the sand” contingent. We’re already in unprecedented snowless territory. Every major east coast city has set a bunch of snowless streak records recently. The obvious thing tying all this together is tap dancing on our face and some are like “we just can’t know”. So no I want us to get a ton of snow. But at the very least if we don’t I want the consolation prize to be that I don’t have to hear anymore “everything’s fine” excuses. EXACTLY…that’s the best example of what I don’t want. We had some chances in Dec and early Jan that year before the Nina pac state set in. And in a Nina type pattern often early is our best shot. We had some snow and chances early in several of our awful winters recently. At least west of 95 did. It’s been too warm early in the coastal plain. But once the pac ridge took over in January it was game over. 2019 that one fluke storm that bullseyes DC came early Jan during the transition. Once the pac ridge went nuts we were left trying to get those progressive boundary waves that mostly went northwest of us to work. We got some snow. But the chances of a good Nino like period or a hecs were over. Lastly I think this is moot. I Think it’s wrong. But don’t pretend that look wasn’t a total disaster if we want any chance of ever getting a classic truly snowy winter where we aren’t just praying for progressive wave table scraps like the last 7 years. I’d rather fail like the eps weeklies with too much Nino! At least that leaves the door open that the pac can be altered!

It will snow again. We’ve had snow the last 7 years. Just not nearly as much. And we will get a hecs again. Hopefully this year. But it’s possible our new normal is significantly less than we want it to be.

Super Nino in 2016 may have been a tipping point. Warmer the pacific past a point at which can be overcome by other factors. Just speculation though.

Let’s hope I don’t have to do that math.

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted. But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends.

The good news is I think in the future we will get more above avg snowfall winters. ….because at this rate eventually our average will be like 4”.

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse! And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years! This look familiar…. It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! Look at the GEFS… We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore. So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question.

I’m not. I think it’s wrong. But I disagree with the attempts to sugar coat that gefs run. It’s not heading anywhere good. The pattern is actually retrograding away from anything workable at the end and the central pac ridge is going ape. I agree it’s likely wrong. I disagree that if it’s right it’s not a disaster. It is. Just hope it’s wrong. We’ve read that exact book many times and the last page never changes.

@JiThe geps and eps follow what I envisioned and seem “on course”. The GEFS has gone off the rails. Let’s just say (hope) it’s probably wrong. I’m not interested in sugar coating that ish. @DarkSharkWX the difference between 2016 and the gefs is the central pac. I truly think it’s wrong. I really do. So take this next sentence with that perspective in mind. However…if (huge if) in a week everything has trended towards that progression and we’re looking at a muted nao and a raging Nina looking central pac ridge with coupled pna/SER…I was wrong and it’s game over.

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us. I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow. I have no interest in trying to make this work… We’ve played that game way too often with the same result. Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem. Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state.