psuhoffman

I didn’t post the control to say “this is what’s going to happen”. I clearly said I DONT believe it. But at day 15 it matched the pattern some, including you, said wasn’t so bad and would be transient. I disagreed, what I saw was actually the pattern regressing the wrong way. I was using the control to show that the pattern on yesterdays day 15 guidance wasn’t heading the right direction. Thoth the eps and gfs ext show the same progression I used to control because it showed the details. We’re on the same team. My forecast was even more bullish. I was just saying neither of us want the pattern to look like it did on yesterdays day 15. I don’t think it will. Today is perhaps the start of the move away from that cliff. That’s all. All we need to make that Atlantic work is for something to cut under the nao ridge effectively splitting it off from the ridge further south. Honestly the heights near 50:50 are more important than the nao. It’s just an nao ridge is one way to promote lower heights in that domain. But there are lots of examples of snow here from a rogue 50/50 absent a -nao. Not so much with a -nao that also has ridging in the 50/50. It’s not far from a good look but that subtle difference makes a huge difference in our chances to have a cold enough antecedent airmass and promote a suppressed storm track.

It’s better but still not ideal for a snowstorm. But it’s heading towards what we want for sure. You know we are hunting different things. That look could work if you just want a chance at s SWFE. Not if we want a bigger storm. If we were in a Nina I’d be thrilled with that look. But it’s a Nino. I’m big game hunting. Not interested in the squirrels.

That is getting way closer to what we want, uts definitely workable as is, and it’s a slight “pinwheel” retrogression in that nao and associated drop SE of the mid lat trough from becoming REALLY good. I know it’s subtle but the key is getting the trough out of western Canada. Everything will cut with it anchored there. Ideally the best look for snow in the mid Atlantic is when the positive over the top is anchored west of the negative to the south. That’s not far from that if the trough trends any further east and can get a wave break in the 50/50. That’s the trend we want to see for mid January.

You’re right and it definitely trended that way from 6z. I hadn’t even looked at that run! But unfortunately the orientation of that vortex will wobble around on guidance a lot from this range. I’m more focused on the trend across several runs wrt the amplitude of all 3 features. Generalizing I think we want 1)stronger 50/50 (to a point there is obviously a limit but it’s a pretty marginal airmass we need that feature) 2) stronger SW associated with our system 3) weaker western system, more cut off, further west So far the trend the last 24 hours has actually been in that direction with all 3 variables so I’m happy. I’m not digging any deeper into the weeds than that for the lead we’re at.

Oh no you didn’t. I seem to remember someone whining in between all those HECSs in 2010 then when we missed on that threat in March said “it ruined the winter” to end that way. Who was that again??? Im just teasing ya and you’re right about me being fringed. We don’t want it north at this point.

This is also an example of the limitations of long range forecasting. The subtle differences between those two looks can’t possibly show up on long range ensembles no matter how perfectly they get the basic pattern correct. But they are the difference between whether this period we identified weeks ago produces snow or not. Get the pattern first. Then still have to hope we get luck with the details on a specific synoptic threat once they come in range.

Over the last 24 hours the 50/50 actually trended stronger but so did the SW responsible for the threat and the western trough backed off a little creating more space and even some ridging out west as it’s approaching. Exactly the two trends we need to continue.

Definitely. Last night we were discussing the spacing and how it needs more room but unfortunately that room has to come on the back end. We need that 50/50 to go ape to be cold enough.

It’s a delicate balance between the waves in front and behind. Guidance will bounce around a lot here. This isn’t a simple setup where nothing is running interference with the STJ wave and models can lock in 8 days out.

I think it’s hard to moderate a ton of storm threats. But I thought maybe people would be happy if we broke the generic long range pattern discussion stuff off. Had “long range pattern” and “long range threats” threads. So those who want to focus on a day 7 threat without hearing about what the day 15 long wave pattern looks like can be happy.

Not bothered by that. It takes an identical track and similar local evolution to Feb 5 2010. (Not expecting the same results Feb 2010 stalled for 12 hours) The precip wouldn’t likely be that shunted given its STJ origins. That’s a typical long range error. Why I get shown as fringed on these way more than it actually happens.

For a small donation I could tell you how it ends… jk Based on the flow it had room to climb the coast I think at least enough to get DC into precip. Not sure what the pretty colors on the surface plot would show but I typically don’t pay that any attention at those ranges.

Snowfall is chaotic and can be influenced by shorter and longer term cyclical patterns. If you cherry pick any one shorter scale time period it can be made to appear stochastic. But if you pull back and run the data through a regression the accurate picture is clear and conclusive. For example, if you compare a past hostile long wave regime like the early 1970s to a favorable one like the 2000s you can erroneously make it look like snowfall was increasing! But if you compare that favorable regime in the 2000s to previous comparable patterns you see that while it was good it wasn’t as good. Inversely if you compare the hostile regime we are in now to the most similar comparable periods in the past you will see while those were bad this is worse.

I’m looking for a river in Egypt…what’s it called again.

The 7th still has potential but the wave needs more space. But it has to come from the back side not the front. RR you’re welcome. We need the 50/50 feature to offset the developing ridge over the top as the western trough develops. That backing off just leads to rain. What we need is for the western trough to trend weaker or further west. A stronger SW initially would help too. After that I think a warm up is inevitable. I always felt that way. But there are paths to avoid it becoming a disaster. We need to see signs that the pac pattern will progress and not get stuck in Nina forcing. We have the high latitude look we need now we just need the Nino look in the pac and it’s game on. Not buying the Nina pattern locking in yet. On to todays runs.

You’re right I misunderstood what you were saying. Sorry.

lol. The other day I watched one of his videos for the first time all season. I was curious. Given how awful a turn the guidance took and knowing his style I wanted to see how he was spinning it. Maybe I was hopeful he could make a rational argument I could believe why it was wrong. I don’t want to be wrong either! One thing I took away was he kept referencing 1978. But that year adjusted for today’s warmer base state would have been a disaster. Almost all the snow we got here was marginal that winter from west track systems that only worked because of how extremely cold it was. I highly doubt that pattern would work out again. I was not impressed with his spin game. It left me less confident that I was before watching because he wasn’t making logical arguments I could agree with he as just lashing out and in denial. That’s how it seemed to me anyways.

Fair enough. But it doesn’t seem anyone is in the mood for the analysis or that joke.

It may have been. If things go the way current guidance is hinting I will bust horribly. One of my worst fails ever! But I’m not convinced it’s going that way yet. Im just being honest that I have more uncertainty than I did weeks ago. Why wouldn’t I. For a time guidance supported my thoughts. Now it is universally in opposition. Unless I was in denial that has to be at least slightly concerning. The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says? I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?

Yea unfortunately a block won’t do us any good if the trough is anchored in western Canada. That’s what I was trying to illustrate. We need that to get dislodged before anything good can come. There are ways to get there. It’s not hopeless.

Funny no one complained when I used long range guidance in my analysis a few weeks ago because it looked great and I was predicting a lot of snow. No one complained I was being repetitive when I said how great everything looked every run! But now it’s a problem when it looks awful. My analysis is exactly the same. Some just like it when it favors snow and hate it when it doesn’t.

You also missed the point. I laid out two viable paths out of that to snowier patterns.

You missed the point. The control matches the progression of the ensembles but it shows a more detailed example of how that pattern would likely play out. It doesn’t have to go down that way. The snow mean on the weeklies isn’t bad. There are also some looks on the mean height field that to me indicate there is variance to how this progresses. Some members quickly redevelop a pacific trough. I said I don’t buy the disaster scenario yet. My point is root for that look to other adjust or be transient because that pattern above won’t end well if it locks in.

The euro weekly control is a perfect example of why that won’t work. It matches that look day 15. It goes on to cut storm after storm well west of us and gives DC less than 1” of snow through Feb 13th. On the means we’re not that warm, only slightly above for the period, since we get really cold behind some of the cutters for a day or two. Im not sure in a Nino with an amplified STJ that can work. Yesterday I opined maybe it would help. But if we need strung out weak waves having a more amped up Stj just increases the odds of each wave being too amplified and cutting. We either need to get the ridge out of the central pac or have that nao retrograde into central Canada and dump the whole trough into the conus and pinwheel the pattern. One of those has to happen for that to work imo.