psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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I tend to agree, weak SPV, descending -QBO, ascending solar... we shouldn't get a raging wall to wall +NAO... but that is the domain we need to be watching for changes more so than the pacific even imo. The biggest reason for the loss of the better pattern projected for the end of Dec and early January on guidance was the degradation of the look on the Atlantic side more so than the Pacific.
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I'm becoming increasingly confident this is entirely about the NAO. First of all if you look at all the best analogs identified, 1958, 1966, 1973, 1987, 1992, 1995, 2010, 2016 the thing that differentiates them wrt snowfall was the NAO in those seasons. 58, 66, 87, 2010 were negative and snowy in the mid atlantic. 73, 92, 95 were positive and not. 2016 was the most ambiguous with some blocking in Jan/Feb but not as pronounced as the others and it ended up in between. Also look at days 4-8 on the EPS. The problem isn't the Pacific. At range things get washed out and give the wrong impression. Because pieces of the main vortex keep getting pulled off and diving into the CONUS, at range timing differences make that look like the vortex is actually extending into the west more than it is. But look as it gets closer what it actually looks like. That low off the west coast is cut off, that's not a problem...the main Pac vortex is centered west of AK. There is ridging into western Canada. The issue there is the TPV over Baffin or IOW a raging positive NAO. Because of that the PNA ridging just spreads out east across the CONUS. If the NAO was negative that pacific look right there, day 4-8 not way out in time, would work just fine. This seems really simple to me...if we get the NAO to flip negative we will be fine, it will promote enough northerly flow into the northeast on top of us for these STJ systems to work...but if the NAO stays positive were screwed, the ridging out west off the PAC will just spread east and we end up with a full continent pacific onslaught. In a nino it really is all about the NAO. There have really only been 2 exceptions in modern history...2003 and 1998. 1998 was so east based and so extreme due to the contrast between the super nino and a colder pac base state that it torched the CONUS despite a -NAO. And 2003 was opposite, the Pacific trough was displaced west by the extreme modoki nature of that nino and so it worked out despite a less favorable NAO, although it wasnt as bad as what we have right now, not sure anything would save us with a strong vortex over Baffin, thats just nightmare stuff right there.
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Today’s raging pacific with that incredibly +AO is likely a disaster. Next week on guidance doesn’t exactly look promising for snow. Let’s just hope we don’t have to test that theory. 1973, 1992 and 1995 failed primarily because the NAO/AO were positive. 1998 the AO/NAO flipped negative but the North Pac vortex was just out of control and flooded pac puke all winter regardless of the nao. 1998 was extremely east based though and combined with a colder pac profile around ENSO created maybe the greatest contrast which likely lead to the strength and displacement east of the pacific nino long wave pattern. Other than 1998 which was an anomaly, the other analogs all fell in line snowy or not based on the NAO. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 the NAO was negative. 1973, 1992, 1995 the NAO was positive.
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Keep in mind I can find a one week snapshot in some good nino years that look somewhat like that. Dec 1957 Dec 1965 Dec 1986 It’s not the end of the world if a week in December looks like crap and resembles 1973/1992. The problem with those years was the whole winter was like that! As I said before some good ninos had a stretch like this in Dec. The good/bad years diverged around new years. We will know soon how this is heading!
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Welcome to 3 pages ago. Let me know when you hear about Elvis.
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Ya and I’m optimistic but some are downplaying the degradation of the nao look on guidance. That’s the key though imo. The equation we need doesn’t work without blocking. Positive nao ninos are mostly awful. Luckily they are also fairly rare.
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1992
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So am I but unlike JB I don’t just assume I have to be right. I’ve been humbled by Mother Nature enough go know not to celebrate until it’s actually happening. We’ve seen step one sneak into day 15 a few times. I feel better when we actually see step 2-3 start progressing into range.
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We have to get the nao negative or that ridge in Canada centered into western Canada. Until one of those two things (preferable both) happen we will struggle.
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Looks way to 1973
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P7 just this once. All these years of posting these f$&@&$ things and we call out that one…can we get a Christmas miracle and just this one time it’s the one.
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Let’s hope the 18z op gfs has sniffed it out first. At the end it isn’t cold yet, will take a few days to recover, but this is headed to good. PAC trough has split and once that last piece crashed in we would get a epo pna ridge too!
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He said famine not no precip at all. Maybe we get 3” qpf each year and it’s all snow!!!
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But…..snow
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Oh I’m not even trying to level things out though. That off the table. Our climo is decreasing and I’ve accepted that. I’m just talking about getting enough snow so that when this year is over we can’t say “it’s been the least snow 8 year stretch ever”. That will take about 30”. Ya that’s how bad it is! I don’t think some realize we’re on the precipice of unprecedented territory here. Because all the past somewhat similar snow droughts were bookended by huge epic snow seasons. So right now we’re within a standard deviation of other past snow droughts. But if we don’t get an epic 40” type season in the next couple years we will start to hit snow drought territory that makes all past bad periods pale in comparison. We have to hit a BIG season here soon or it’s gonna get absolutely ridiculous and there will be no argument against the fact our snow climo may have hit a tipping point in a negative way. I don’t want to accept that yet so I banked on an epic year. Don’t get me wrong it wasn’t all just that. We have a lot in our favor. Basin wide but central leaning Nino. -QBO. Ascending solar. But the were due index is off the charts blinking red with fireworks going off right now!
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I also live on top a mountain and average 40”. A 20” winter in DC is a really good season. A 20” winter here is a really bad season! Again I grade things on a curve. I enjoyed the snow. But that doesn't affect my analysis moving forward. 2 different things.
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Me either. Just pointing out all the permutations on the table. But for me knowing this is likely our last shot for a while to break out of the snow drought we’re in does raise the stakes. The last few days has been not so good wrt guidance but we have time still. Like I said around New Years is when we will know where this is heading imo.
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Thanks…I get the impression some think I’m being hot take ish or edgy with this. Frankly I kinda factored this into my seasonal forecast some. I didn’t even want to imagine how ugly it might get if we failed this year given the pacific cycle we’re in and what’s likely coming given where we’re heading wrt QBO/Solar/enso. I thought “it can’t really be headed toward 8,9,10 years of this dreg can it?” But that’s what we’re facing if we don’t score big this year. Whats odd because for years when we suffered during less ideal enso I heard a lot of what I’m saying now…it’s ok eventually we will get a Nino and then we will score. So I know people agree with this. But now that the moment of truth is here and we have a Nino I’m starting to see some “well maybe it won’t be that good but there ok” posts. lol.
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It was an awful pattern. They just got lucky once, and VERY lucky. You at least always have the chance of a lucky huge fluke in the Mid ATL and SE in a bad Nino because of the STJ. But a Nino should be graded in a curve. It’s not some +QBO west based Nina where getting 10-15” might be considered a win! A -QBO ascending solar non east based super Nino is our superstar player. We have to hold them to a much higher standard. Getting a dud from one is way worse than a dud in any other scenario. And what’s crazy is what I’m saying I heard many others saying the same basically…all this “wait for a Nino and it will be ok” talk but now it’s here so I don’t want any excuses. Just keeping it real.
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I’m grading this year within the larger context. If we get a year like that in a -QBO ascending solar when are we breaking out of this funk given we’re likely heading towards a Nina and soon to be descending solar. This is out shot. Maybe the last one for a big season in a while. I know anything can happen. Maybe we luck into a 1996 Nina next year. I wouldn’t hold my breath given the pacific base state. But for years as we’ve suffered through the worst stretch in history I’ve heard “wait for a Nino” Now we have a Nino and so I’m not in the mood for “well maybe it won’t be good but that’s ok”. My bar is way higher.
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Not sure how that Pna = better pac. The epo ia better the pna is worse. But the atl being worse is a bigger problem that many seem to think. We don’t do well in a Nino with a +NAO usually.
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It’s worse than a one day snapshot. It a match overall to an uncanny degree over weeks. That storm was ok. I had thunder too. But one 4-8” snow all freaking season in a -QBO Nino would be a total unmitigated disaster. Let’s not sugar coat they.
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Yes it’s “ok” not awful. But this was the same week just 5 days ago…it’s the trend more than the raw output that’s troubling. lastly an “ok” pattern isn’t gonna verify my 30-40” snowfall prediction! I’m not looking for this year to be “ok”. We’re coming off our worst 7 year stretch EVER finally in a Nino with a -QBO and ascending solar staring down another Nina next year. This year has to be graded on a curve. This has to be our epic once a decade save our snow weenie souls winter. This winter is a hall of fame shooting guard going up against a top team. Dropping 20 won’t cut it we’re gonna need a 30 point night minimum! My point is my expectations are high. I expect this winter to be GOOD not just another continuation of the same crap we’ve been in recently. Some decent flawed pattern where we might fight our way close to climo with luck (like 2019) is a fail imo. BTW Baltimore needs like 30” this winter for it not to be the least snowy 8 years on record! That’s how low we’ve sunk! So I’m judging this winter on that criteria. It has to be the year that breaks us out of this “least snowy X years” funk and its been so bad that doesn’t just mean some 15-25” season. We need EPIC. So no that look isn’t awful. I could even see how we might get lucky if a lot goes right. But it’s not close to what I’m looking for? End of rant. lol.
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Unfortunately the best pattern match right now is Dec 1994 and it’s kinda scary how closely they match at h5! I’m not gonna lie it bothers me a little.
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They aren’t waffling they’ve been slowly consistently degrading over the last 5 days.
