psuhoffman

When we get this… and it’s just not cold enough…I dunno am I the crazy one? And yes I know we’re recovering from a torch but isn’t that part of this same rinse repeat cycle where any warm up is a compete torch then when we get a better pattern it’s too warm. If it takes 2-3 weeks to recover how often do we get a good pattern to last that long? and if Mars is in alignment with Jupiter and the full harvest moon during a solar eclipse then maybe…

That ridge in AK and trough to the west combined with the -AO argues the trough should broaden and extend east.

It was an improvement but remember you want to use the probabilities not the mean to bet a better idea. Last year I did those probabilities after each run because the mean maps give an inflated idea that makes the ensembles look like they are predicting snow when they aren’t. Them people claim they suck and are always over predicting snow. for example the probability of 1” is only about 30% on that run. The mean is skewed high by the big hits. That was an improvement though so worth noting. I meant game over to get a truly snowy winter. Game over for my winter forecast. Not game over to get any snow at all. We would be back to the same place we’ve been the last 7 years trying to make a horrible long wave pattern work and praying to get table scraps and if we’re super super lucky maybe enough have an outside shot at having a not horrible winter. No thanks. I do think it’s wrong. But I took issue with some posts trying to minimize what the gefs was showing. Some “it’s not that bad and would be temporary” comments. It was that bad and wouldn’t be temporary. It wasn’t the transient ridge issue Chuck was freaking out about. That period came a week before the period we’re discussing. The forcing at the end of those gefs runs indicated the tropical forcing was stuck in the MC and going ape. Same issue we’ve had. The pac trough was retrograding completely out of the picture and the central pac ridge was going nuts. Also later when it updated the gefs extended confirmed my suspicions and locked that in for weeks! It was an awful run. And it wasn’t nearly as bad at day 16 as the runs were discussing! I was trying to drive home that even though I think it’s wrong don’t sugar coat the turd the gefs was spitting out. And even though I think it’s wrong I don’t want to see anything showing that crap look. That h5 is what I wake up at 4am screaming “good God Nooooo” No I love snow. But I do want to lay the groundwork so if we do fail I don’t have to hear more excuses from the “it’s just bad luck stick my head in the sand” contingent. We’re already in unprecedented snowless territory. Every major east coast city has set a bunch of snowless streak records recently. The obvious thing tying all this together is tap dancing on our face and some are like “we just can’t know”. So no I want us to get a ton of snow. But at the very least if we don’t I want the consolation prize to be that I don’t have to hear anymore “everything’s fine” excuses. EXACTLY…that’s the best example of what I don’t want. We had some chances in Dec and early Jan that year before the Nina pac state set in. And in a Nina type pattern often early is our best shot. We had some snow and chances early in several of our awful winters recently. At least west of 95 did. It’s been too warm early in the coastal plain. But once the pac ridge took over in January it was game over. 2019 that one fluke storm that bullseyes DC came early Jan during the transition. Once the pac ridge went nuts we were left trying to get those progressive boundary waves that mostly went northwest of us to work. We got some snow. But the chances of a good Nino like period or a hecs were over. Lastly I think this is moot. I Think it’s wrong. But don’t pretend that look wasn’t a total disaster if we want any chance of ever getting a classic truly snowy winter where we aren’t just praying for progressive wave table scraps like the last 7 years. I’d rather fail like the eps weeklies with too much Nino! At least that leaves the door open that the pac can be altered!

It will snow again. We’ve had snow the last 7 years. Just not nearly as much. And we will get a hecs again. Hopefully this year. But it’s possible our new normal is significantly less than we want it to be.

Super Nino in 2016 may have been a tipping point. Warmer the pacific past a point at which can be overcome by other factors. Just speculation though.

Let’s hope I don’t have to do that math.

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted. But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends.

The good news is I think in the future we will get more above avg snowfall winters. ….because at this rate eventually our average will be like 4”.

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse! And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years! This look familiar…. It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! Look at the GEFS… We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore. So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question.

I’m not. I think it’s wrong. But I disagree with the attempts to sugar coat that gefs run. It’s not heading anywhere good. The pattern is actually retrograding away from anything workable at the end and the central pac ridge is going ape. I agree it’s likely wrong. I disagree that if it’s right it’s not a disaster. It is. Just hope it’s wrong. We’ve read that exact book many times and the last page never changes.

@JiThe geps and eps follow what I envisioned and seem “on course”. The GEFS has gone off the rails. Let’s just say (hope) it’s probably wrong. I’m not interested in sugar coating that ish. @DarkSharkWX the difference between 2016 and the gefs is the central pac. I truly think it’s wrong. I really do. So take this next sentence with that perspective in mind. However…if (huge if) in a week everything has trended towards that progression and we’re looking at a muted nao and a raging Nina looking central pac ridge with coupled pna/SER…I was wrong and it’s game over.

The 12z (and now the 18z is even worse!) GEFS backed off on the nao and has a weaker east based -nao. It also backed off slightly and retrograded all the features in the PAC. Those are subtle things and well within normal error for that range but that can be the difference for us. I think the geps/eps interpretation would significantly increase our chances of snow. I have no interest in trying to make this work… We’ve played that game way too often with the same result. Frankly the gefs looks way too similar to how the long range has looked a lot over the last 8 years. If the long wave nuances of the gefs are correct I fully expect that SER to trend worse and become a big problem. Late Jan and Feb 2019 we saw how a weak east based nao was not workable in that pacific look. I agree with cape out best bet is to say its just wrong. That pacific look is basically saying F off Nino you’re not denting my base state.

There was a time not long ago when some in here COMPLAINED when all the snow melted too fast! LOL!!!

Agreed. I just called out someone in this thread that loves to criticize without making any forecasts themselves. I hate that. Get in the ring if you want to play the game! on topic…It is possible the pacific flips again. I do think some of this is cyclical. I also think some is not. This year will be telling wrt how screwed we are for the duration of the current pacific cycle. We’ve proven that in a Nina/neutral it’s pretty bad. The next test will be what happens when we get the next favorable pdo cycle. I noted before that those have been degrading also and the last confluence of a positive PAC/Atl cycle we got in the 2000s wasn’t nearly as productive wrt snow south of 40 as the previous 2 were. How much does that trend continue? We will have to wait on that one.

For years now from time to time I leave the same question to the “warminista” members who often take over in the main threads. “So what would you want to see to predict a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic”. I get one of two replies…silence, or some ridiculous list of variables that it’s unlikely we ever get them all lined up. What I’ve realized is what they’re actually implying is it’s almost impossible, given the pacific cycle we are in combined with “that which shall not be named” for us to get a true cold/snowy winter. Given the last 8 years there is ample evidence they could be right. Maybe we just don’t want to admit it. As I’ve said this winter is the test. If the current enso can’t counterbalance the various hostile pacific factors we’ve discussed we’re pretty much F’d. Especially since there is also ample evidence those pacific influences aren’t all random but somewhat linked to “that which won’t be named”.

Or is it behaving like a -pdo Nino. 3 past -pdo period ninos. All did flip colder and snowier. But only 1 produced a lot of snow. Luckily it’s the best analog imo so far.

We can agree this is irresponsible from both the people posting this and the media using it for ratings.

I’m not discounting this data…but if you don’t differentiate by enso it might skew the results. A La Niña or even neutral enso season with that same December is much less likely to flip in January. I’d like to see the data for only warm enso seasons.

These posts below discussing the exact period/warm up that you and Ji are now referencing are from 7-8 days ago…when the period in question was still 16-20 days away. This possible relax period and warm up has been on guidance and discussed in here since it was 20 days away! You are entitled to your opinions of NWP and long range forecasting in general. But you are not entitled to gaslighting everyone with BS nonsense.

The gefs really backed off the -nao this run. If you actually want to worry about something that would truly be a reason to worry that would be it. This equation won’t work without a -nao. The whole problem creation relies on it. +nao basic wide or east based ninos are a disaster! luckily it’s just one run and the GEPS doesn’t agree so for now just a blip. 12z eps will be telling.

What did he say?

@Ji the temporary warmup after the threat around the 7th was already known. It’s been on guidance for a while. A week ago I said we probably gave a relax after the first week of Jan then things get even better during the next reload of the pattern. What’s disappointing was the 12z gefs really pulled back on the potential for the 7th. The wave gets washed out by most members on the 12z run. It’s cold enough. Just suppressed. If so that means we’re waiting for later in January which I’ve suspected for a while and why I haven’t been getting too into the analysis of these early Jan “threats”. My gut just felt we might have to wait but I felt saying that might get stuff thrown at me. But the best example of the situation we’re in now in 2016 wrt a torched N America. And it took weeks and a couple cycles of the pattern to get cold enough to snow. You could even argue (I would) that the best long wave pattern look was before the blizzard but the thermals over the conus just weren’t cold enough to support a snow here yet. Im not saying we only get one storm. And I’m on the record saying we got a bit unlucky not to get more snow that winter. I’m simply comparing how long it took to recover from a similar situation then to now.

Ops are really amplifying the long wave pattern. One problem with that is the pacific wins in a route. I’ve brought this up. Recently it takes weeks to establish cold and the first time the flow goes zonal off the pacific it gets obliterated in 24 hours! In fairness it is cold before and after that period you posted but that’s a disappointing development if it does evolve that way and would likely mean we’re waiting until after the pac progresses again towards mid January. By the time we are getting cold enough a temporary trough off the west coast immediately obliterated all the cold and we’re back to square one. Look I’m trying to be positive. But I’ve left it hanging out there that fail is an option and if so we have THE answer we’ve been beating around for years during this current pac cycle. Even if it goes down the gfs op way I suspect it still progresses to a good look after. But if this cycle of “flow off torched pacific obliterated cold in 2 seconds after a week of trying to slowly build a colder profile, rinse repeat” continues all winter at least we have the answer. This winter will be productive one way or another.

From the 10,000ft view the pattern has evolved exactly as was hinted from several weeks ago. This is the now day 3-10 mean This was the look on the extended guidance from a month out. Absolutely amazing win for the long range guidance. Doesn’t mean it will always be this accurate but since some like to bash the guidance for every fail (and sometimes when it didn’t fail but they are just mad there’s no snow on their lawn) it’s worth noting when it has a win. Now as we turn to specific threats that are coming into range IMO the main issue seems to be our snow probabilities are somewhat muted by temps compared to what you might expect given that look. We knew the transition week from Xmas to New Years would be a long shot. But even into the first week of January it’s taking a long time to establish enough cold and even once we do get colder the depth of the airmass is still marginal. This doesn’t mean we won’t snow. I concur with @CAPE , I like our chances with the wave around the 7th the best. But we need more to go perfectly wrt track and NS interaction than we would with a colder profile. What I mean by “depth” is can the airmass resist a southerly flow ahead of a wave. Can it withstand strong WAA. Can a low track west of us and still produce a front end thump. A colder airmass with more depth widens our margin for error wrt track. You get a more expensive frozen precipitation zone with each storm. This is why imo the ground truth on most runs isn’t as impressive as what you might expect with that h5 look. The good news is I think this general pattern will have legs. There will be fluctuations. We might get a temporary SE ridge around the 10-12th or so. But as this general long wave configuration persists we will slowly build a colder regime. It very well could snow the first week or two of January. But I still feel our best chances will come from Jan 20 into Feb.

You aren’t saying anything we don’t already know. A bad pattern might yield a 5% chance of snow in a given week. A good one maybe 30%. A good long wave pattern doesn’t guarantee snow it just increases the probabilities. Everything you said about threat identification is also great, except it only works out to about day 7-10. If we are looking at stuff day 12 or 15 or 20 that won’t work. The best we can do it identify the long wave pattern then wait until inside 10 days to identify a specific threat.