psuhoffman

This is perception bias. At no point has the GEFS been objectively more accurate than the EPS. Actually, recently there have been some articles implying NCEP is thrilled that recent upgrades have simply made the GFS products more competitive but still clearly in 3rd place. This is by no means a shot at NCEP, they have made significant progress and advancements with their products and they have limitations the ECMWF does not. Yes, there were a few times the EPS showed a better pattern in the long range than the GEFS last winter and it was wrong. But there were also numerous times the GEFS showed a better pattern and was wrong, you just don't remember them because that is the status quo. Additionally most of the times the EPS was wrong it was also in opposition to the GEPS as well...this time the GEPS was in agreement. Finally, last winter the "better looks" also were in conflict with the base state and what we would expect given the enso. This year the better looks are in alignment of what it should look like. In addition to this statement being based on a biased interpretation of reality I also think its not a comparable situation.

I said Deb’s not trolls

The debs got quiet today

PSA When to worry about a post implying it’s not gonna snow The post is supported by sound logical analysis citing reliable data When not to worry about posts implying it won’t snow The post is supported by a random plot from a 300 hour operational run. The post cites absolutely no reliable data or evidence The post is based on feelings and emotional venting

2010 was very high on the analogs. It’s very possible we follow a similar progression just displaced 2 weeks later. Obviously I’m not expecting it to get to that extreme. That takes a lot of luck on top of a good pattern. 1958 followed a similar progression but our area got unlucky during the January window and had to wait for the mid Feb to mid March window to hit big. But there is a lot of history to two favorable periods with a reload. 1966 also, reload early Feb before another snow event late Feb.

It’s slower but hints of the AO/NAO starting to flip at the very end of the gefs also.

If a wave wants to secondary or go berserk once it’s east of our latitude I’m fine with that lol. But yea it would take perfect timing for an amplified system to work without blocking in a marginal airmass.

I travel a lot and the vibe is just so different when you get out of the area. It’s even a little better (wrt laid back) up here v closer to DC. I’ll definitely be going somewhere once the kids are gone. Still a ways away for me though. I agree with your thoughts. The pacific dominant pattern showing up is one where waves can work well. If the nao goes negative then we can start hecs hunting.

Bobs here it’s on

There was can kicking, but only about a week, which I suspected would be the case. Early January is the typical timing of a flip in ninos with a similar December longwave pattern. We might have a shot at something just before new years but it’s still likely just after that true cold starts to take hold. . But make no mistake guidance was originally rushing the pattern by about a week. 12 days ago this was the look for Xmas on the EPS. We still get to that but not until closer to New Years. I said we’re fine as long as we don’t get to new years without the pattern change eminent. BUT…if we did get to Jan with no sign of the pac backing off and a raging +AO history says it’s game over for getting a favorable long wave pattern this winter. I think some just don’t like having that hanging over our heads. But that wasn’t a prediction just a factual statement of what historical data says. In all past similar December Ninos the pattern either begins to flip by early January or it stays crap all winter.

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002. Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample.

About what?

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly.

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ! If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go! There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some.

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year.

Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs

Ask him how a western trough worked out the last few years

Webb has become a whole clown now https://x.com/psuhoffman/status/1735818062962524506?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

Some of y’all are funny. A few days ago when guidance looked like crap some wanted to push back. Now things look legitimately good and now it’s time to Deb?

There was an arctic shot in late December but we only got a coating of snow with it. The first 2 weeks of January were very cold but dry. There was a 1-3" clipper that was it. IAD had 11 straight days with a high below 40 degrees early in the month. From the 14th to the 28th was mild as we got a bit too much PAC. Similar to now. Then things reverted to the pattern of Dec/Early Jan and it was away we go. The not so good 2 week Jan pattern is below. But it was really only 2 weeks that whole winter where the pattern was not so good.

Canadian weeklies updated. They flip the NAO negative around New Years and run the table. Also develops a nice EPO-NAO ridge bridge. Cue Chuck to point out the PNA is negative though.

That's because snow is an anomaly here and at our elevation and latitude it takes way more factors to be in our favor than not. Kinda like a golf swing...takes multiple things working in unison to get it right...any one little thing can F it all up.