psuhoffman

Just to clarify 1) all the week3+ extended guidance still looks great. 2) I still expect it to eventually be correct. I think it was just too fast getting there initially and felt that might be true even a week ago. 3)but I am acknowledging that for about 7 days now the better looks are stuck at day 16-20 just outside the actual ensemble range mostly. At times it’s snuck into day 15 for a run then retreated. And that’s frustrating. Just noting that observation.

I think our definition of wall to wall winter is different. I don’t mean it snows the whole winter. But to me I was thinking a majority (not all) of the winter is spent in a pattern where it can snow and there are multiple events spread out. Not just one or two flukes. 2008-10 was definitely a wall to wall winter for me. Snow events in our area (not everyone’s yard gets it every time!) Dec 5, Dec 10, Dec 19! A clipper early Jan. Another storm late Jan. 3 snows Feb 2-10th. A light snow for MD in late Feb and a near miss in early March. That’s as wall to wall as it’s gets to be. No 3 week shut the blinds periods…we were tracking legit threats from Dec 1 on! And is even throw in years where it started warm and flipped but then had a sustained 8 weeks or so of cold/snow. For reference years I would categorize as wall to wall winters in my adult life 1994, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014 Years that just missed but were close, had long stretches that felt like winter and I’d even include in this argument 2005, 2015 But let’s be serious…a lot of us are hunting for the big year that historically this area gets with decadal regularity. 1958, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. Those years features a combo of long stretches of wintry weather and snows. We all know they won’t happen most years, but my point was if this enso can’t being about a snowy (doesn’t even have to be to the level of one of those years) winter then I don’t know if getting a year like that is even possible in the current pacific background base state.

So do we want a ridge there or a trough. We’ve failed both ways lately. If we fail again the problem is way bigger than any one specific artifact of the long wave pattern.

I’m not jumping yet but I get the frustration. A week ago this is what Xmas to New years was supposed to look like and it was consistent on long range guidance. But it’s been stick at day 20 since. Now guidance says we get to that look around Jan 5-10. Ok…but given what happened the last nino and the pacific issues which some have speculated is a bigger problem that just enso, I think it’s fair to be bothered by the failure of the pattern to progress over the past week or so. But I’m not making one of my famous “we fooked” posts yet. But…I’ll say this, if we get to new years with the long range looking like this it will be coming. Even in late flip years the changes were evident and signs the nao (which is a big key here) was tanking were evident even if the snow was still a couple weeks away. If we get to new years with no end in sight to this pacific onslaught then we’re in trouble imo. We’re ok for now…but the clock is already ticking. And before anyone complains about how early it is they said that the last couple times I called TOD on winter in December and how did that turn out? To be 100% clear I expect around Xmas we start to see the pattern progression resume. I think we’re ok. But I’d be a fool not to acknowledge the risks and be a little nervous until I see concrete signs were good.

If a nino isn’t able to change the equation then at least we know! I mean eventually the PDO will flip again but I don’t expect that anytime soon. And we can still get a fluke snow like the lucky one off boundary waves we’ve randomly lucked into from time to time in recent years. But if this current enso can’t alter the equation I find it hard to imagine how we get a true wall to wall snowy winter in this pacific background state. please note I said IF…I’m sticking to my forecast for now.

Maybe…but I remember getting 1-2” in northern VA on November 11th after it was 65 degrees with severe thunderstorms earlier that day with a temp of 33-35 during the snow. How??? Because we got lucky with banding and it snowed like crazy for an hour. We can’t predict where but I think whoever ends up under a heavy band could get a pleasant surprise despite the marginal temps. If it snows hard enough it won’t matter. It will melt as soon as it stops like it did in my November example but who cares.

I agree because I think only heavy banding will do anything but the radar looks about like it’s supposed to now it’s not supposed to really start to look like much until around 7-8pm. That’s when things are supposed to fill in to our southwest.

Ok keep this is mind. We never expect to nail the specifics of meso scale banding before the storm. But that’s all we have here because the boundary layer is way too warm for light to moderate snow to do anything. This is entirely a now cast situation.

RR is gonna have a field day

I know this is lols but I wouldn’t be shocked if places closer to the cities get 1-3” of one of these bands the meso models keep hinting at actually sets up.

Latest HRRR has me at 6” and still snowing when it ends. Ok…

I don’t think it matters much. By midnight places west of the fall line are cold enough above the boundary layer to support snow. But the surface is still torched. The exact time of the flip seems partially dependent on when heavy precip arrives. Some runs have a lull between waves and the flip is delayed. But these tend to be the more amplified solutions and they end to with more precip later when the boundary has cooled and that’s better. The runs that flip sooner are more progressive and end the precip earlier.

Not very but it’s better to be trending colder v warmer.

I’m concerned the sonic waves could disrupt the hemispheric energies necessary for the propagation of the thermal boundary. Why hasn’t it changed over yet? Radar looks like crap. I can see the back edge.

HRRR looks the same wrt surface. Fv3 actually is 1-2 degrees colder at Winchester overnight. Around 34-35 during the snow. The NAMs went warmer because they totally lost the precipice out west. The NAM went less amplified and shifted the precip out before the cold gets there so you’re warmer. But if the NAM is correct what’s it matter since you miss all the precip from the wave behind the front anyways.

Are you worried about your 2m soil temps?

I assume you mean the WRF-FV3? I noticed it went the other way v the NAM. Guess we will know soon when the global come in if the NAM was just a hiccup. NAMs are jumpy as F and cause so many early panics because they come out first each suite, that’s kinda unfortunate. If they came out last we would ignore all their tangents.

Best run yet. 10-1 even the snow depth one is nice

Ji is right...but to play devils advocate...you choose which maps to use...most of the guidance on wxbell has snow depth maps, kuchera and 10-1. You know which ones are more likely given the situation. If you're using a 10-1 map for some light snow event with marginal temps...that isn't the maps fault that is user error.

Almost all my “predictions” are just me pointing out probabilities based on data analysis of history. “What happened when we were previously in this same situation” type stuff. Sometimes it helps identity when we’re likely to get snow. Lately it’s mostly identified when we’re fooked. But it’s just math. Anyone could do it.

If I recall someone on here knew it was coming…

If the banding being shown does materialize I think a compromise between the Kuchera and the depth maps are more likely.

true but 1) that was like 4 upgrades ago. 2) it was a major hiccup but it was like 60 hours about I think and it corrected immediately next run. One hiccup out of 8 days of runs is to be expected.

FWIW sref probabilities of 1” increased significantly