psuhoffman

Days since DC has an inch of snow.

Since its been so long...just for reference... This is what we want the antecedent airmass to look like as a wave comes at us NOT THIS It was closer to an even bigger event if the NS would have phased in. But the setup was nice...way too far out to know if the GFS is even close. I would like to see the ensembles start to show this discreet wave with a bit more clarity over the next couple days. They picked up on this current wave from like day 15 which was amazing. I don't expect that...but we want to see some hints at this on the ensembles soon.

Don't have to go that far either... the Poconos are going to get it pretty good. Lake Harmony, Mt Pocono, Tobyhanna area...anywhere in there will get 12" plus I think and a really nice thump snow tomorrow afternoon/evening. It's not that far a drive.

I'm heading to my friends cabin in southern VT.

ERS is right, its not his fault its not going to snow in DC. It's been 719 days since DC had an inch of snow. Not a snowstorm...just an inch! And sadly just before this, only a few years ago we missed setting the then record longest snow draught by just a few days. So... how can you take anyone seriously who has been saying how great everything looks though all that? The same people who have hyped threat after threat while we have had NO SNOW. We make fun of JB all the time, but at the same time we pick on the people who give an honest assessment.

719

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently. We've seen this play out a lot lately. Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific. But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part? Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east?

@TerpeastI agree the last 24 hours has not trended the way I want to see. The biggest problem is after the front clears and we get the TPV into a good location...instead of energy continuing to dump in behind (and that would be our storm threat) it's trending towards the whole pattern immediately breaking down and the trough splitting/pulling back once the TPV slides east. We get a temporary window with the look we want on the atlantic side as that TPV slides through the 50/50 but there is nothing behind it to amplify and once that 50/50 slides out we probably ridge out again. @Maestrobjwa this is the part you want to read Positive Spin: It's still far enough out that it could change. Also, both the EPS and now the GEFS ext both, people didnt talk about it but for weeks the GFS ext looked like hot garbage and was saying winter is over but now it shifted to the EPS weekly, both show the pattern recycling quickly into what we want by the end of January. That is still time for us. As as long as we do actually get to the canonical look by February we will be ok. Less positive analysis (for those that just want to feel good stop now) I have some concerns regarding longer term patterns here. Yes we are in a hostile PDO regime. But that is NOT 100% responsible for this mess. The other issue is we are also in a hostile tropical forcing regime and that is mostly due to the warm pool in the western tropical pacific and the IOD cycle. Problem is that doesn't seem to be a temporary thing to me. The waters there are less influenced by the cyclical currents and patterns as other places. The warming there, and I've read this from those that know way more about it than me, might simply be warming related in and around the MC. That problem isn't going away. @Terpeast and @WxUSAF curious your take on this observation. We've been in a repetitive cycle where during jet extensions the warmer Pac in general floods North America with such a torched airmass that we have no shot no matter what the longwave pattern over the east ends up being or the local storm track. Then when the jet retracts and we build cold somewhere in the continent the PDO and MC forcing guaruntees it dumps into the west and we ridge to kingdom come in the east. I also believe the warmer Atlantic and Gulf are causing the persistent TNH configuration with pumps the SER more than even a -3 Stdv block can do anything about. We've seen that time and time again. The problem is I am starting to see hints this might even repeat again. After this current cycle by the time the cold does press east we are getting signs of the next jet extension which could scour the cold then are we are back to square one when we get a more favorable pattern late Jan/Feb? The question is...are you seeing what I am seeing and what can mitigate this? What do we need???

Depth of the airmass isn’t good enough. Yea we’re cold now because we’re directly under the axis of the northerly flow behind an amplifying wave. But at its zenith the cold barely gets south of us and isn’t expansive so as soon as the return southerly flow hits ahead of the next wave it’s easily scoured out. But hey we’re only 12 days after the long wave flow changed and the pac puke was cut off. . We need at least 3 weeks of a good long wave pattern to have any chance to be cold enough.

In your defense I think in the past “give me the moisture with a decent track and it will work out” was a good rule where you are.

It is just one run and I’m not expecting it yet BUT I was noting the NAM and euro were hinting at this at 12 and even more 18z. They’ve been trending towards starting to amplify the coastal and develop a closed mid level circulation sooner, thus cutting off that trowal that was killing us. Not sure how far it can go but there were hints it was heading this way before this run.

Fringed, tucked We had a chat, I let them know

That’s all our events lately

For years the mjo has done us no good. When the patterns been crap often we’ve filled up pages with hope for an mjo wave headed for 8/1 to save us. It’s never done a damn thing. Usually the wave dies and barely makes it because the base state was hostile to central pac forcing. But even when it did make it at most we would get only a slight dent in the pattern. Maybe it went from god awful to just awful. Then before it did much more than that the wave moved on and we were back to god awful. So now that we have a Nino and a favorable pattern and forcing base state I hear a drum beat of “the mjo is gonna wreck it” by some. Yea ok.

One is 12z the other 18z

I was at snowshoe for that. Was epic!

Thanks for the info!

Years ago it was like that for everything. I don’t even look at them usually so can’t say anymore.

Look at my post last page. I used the 3k NAM but I noticed it on the euro. Same thing you’re referencing.

@high risk example

TT seems to count qpf other sites deem non snow. It’s always crazy generous on the south side compared to all other outlets.

Rgem snow algorithm must be more generous. Its thermals are almost identical to the 3k I posted but it leans snow v rain on those clown maps. It is wetter too.

I just know...if we get out of the pattern at the end of the GEPS and EPS without any significant snow...then its time to give this up

Oh crap its over, end times are here

You know a threat has gone sideways when the TT snow maps start showing up