psuhoffman

DRY. BONE DRY. There was absolutely no precip at all until Feb 24 and by then the pattern broke down and there was a western trough eastern ridge and it was a cutter. That mean was from the first 20 days of the month and it's why we don't actually want a huge PNA ridge if we have that level of blocking...it was dry for weeks on end.

Can't figure out why

Just throwing this out there... we have been in a hostile cycle of the pacific and atlantic for the last 7 years, one that rivals previous "bad periods" with similar mean long wave patterns over a similar 7-8 year period. But this was HAS been like 25% worse. I know for the last year and a half of winter we've had absolutely no snow but in the larger 8 year period we're frustrated with we have had some snow. But during that time we have also had numerous "perfect track rainstorms". Yes those were always a thing, but IMO never at the frequency they are happening now. So if some of those had been snow we aren't in this 700 day snow drought right now and the last 7 years are more in line with previous bad periods. It's probably just that simple.

I have referenced that period in the 1950's as the closest comp to this...but pointed out this is worse, and I think that's where warming comes in. That period you referenced BWI averaged 13.3" with a median of 14.1. The last 7 years BWI has averaged 9.9" with a median of 10.9. Both were comparably bad periods and similar to the averages of those periods if you normalize for warming and our lower snow averages now but that just proves my point. The stats are similar for DC. That period in 49-57 avg snow was 10.9" with a 10.2 median. Now DC's avg since 2016 is 6.8" with a median of 5.4. This is worse. But what is really scary is that every previous snow drought that was somewhat close to this was bookended by epic snowfall periods. For example that period you referenced in the 50's was preceded by 8/9 years above 20" and followed by 4/5 years above 30". So, unless we go on an absolute snow heater VERY SOON...things will start to become absolutely unprecedented with no previous period that comes even close in comparison. You are right at this moment there are a couple previous periods that while not as bad are close enough that you could make the argument its just random. But if this drought continues a couple more years that argument becomes impossible.

Gfs finally shows something in the window the pattern actually most supports snow.

You’re right we should have been talking about all the snow we’ve been getting instead.

When I started planning to go to Vermont when it was 3-4 days away that should have tipped you off how I really felt. Not just for DC but even my area!

But if you looked within the trends bad signs were showing then. We do run in cycles for snow. But from 2000 to 2016 we were in a congruence of a favorable Atlantic and pacific pattern. Places north of us were getting way above normal snow. But we actually were below avg (by the historical numbers) during that stretch. That period looks like Valhalla compared to recently. But it was bad if you compared it to previous periods where we got everything to line up. Look at the mean pattern from that period! Warning sirens should have been going off when places to our north were running 150% of normal snow yet we were BELOW AVG even in that freaking amazing pattern for that period! We should have had another period like the late 50s-60s then! So now we’re in a truly bad cycle with a mean long wave pattern that isn’t good. And in the past this would have been bad but just like the last good period wasn’t as good, this bad period is WORSE! We will get to another better cycle eventually. At some point the PDO and AMO will flip again. But the question is how much will our ability to snow have degraded by then? How muted will that next cycle be. Is assuredly will be better than this. But does it even get back to that 2000-2016 level? I don’t know.

I don know what to say. It’s been awful. Let’s just hope we turn this around in a huge way soon. At least the pattern looks as perfect as we could ask for a chance to do that. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith with every snowless week that goes by. The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that? You know who has been. JB! Is that what they want?

Sad but true

There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be! Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it! Im not always a deb before a threat. If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so. There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early. I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill! I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out! I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat. We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything. Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that.

That’s upslope from the two cutters. The euro has some snow/ice from a wave after. The gfs has never really been on board for that.

I’m not saying the snowless streak will go on that long. For the record I think the snowlessness is a combo of bad cycle and warming. We likely get a somewhat better period at some point even with warming. But let’s say it doesn’t improve. What if we continue at the same snowfall rate we’ve had on avg the last 8 years where DC is averaging about what Charlotte NC or Spartanburg SC should! How long do you think before those denying the climate has changed come around? 2 more years? 5 more years? Are we in 2040 and it’s been 25 years since Baltimore had a 6” snow and they’re still saying it’s just bad luck and we will turn it around any day now?

But it’s never actually looked that good. We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us! Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again.

Except the snow mean on the long range guidance looks absolutely atrocious for the one week we have the +nao +pna. It starts to look better once the nao flips negative again.

I mean it depends how big. If we got a match 58 redux but in Feb so the whole area got 50” (qpf was absolutely insane with that storm had it been a month sooner that isn’t a stretch) then you can’t complain. But I agree one 6-12” storm wouldn’t make this an A/B winter if that’s all we got. That essentially would be another 1995 and no one remembers that fondly.

Not worried about the day 15 “relax”. EPS goes from this day 15 to this 3 days later and 3 days after that the nao is tanking again. By the time the pattern goes to crap in the east the pacific has already resumed a favorable configuration to bounce right back.

Not gonna happen. For the last 7 years every failure has been couched by “but Nina” by the crowd that doesn’t want to acknowledge the “elephant”. Meanwhile we’ve had a Nino and 2 neutral winters in there and they made convenient excuses to dismiss that fact. I’ve made my case that while the persistent Nina base state is part of this, I’ve never denied that, but more is going on contributing here. If we have a total fail during a second Nino, one that did couple and produced the pattern we wanted…at that point I don’t have to say anything. “Scoreboard” should be plenty enough. Anyone still in denial isn’t going to be swayed by some novel I write on here so what’s the point?

Why does everyone think I’d be unhappy with 3-4” of snow? Maybe if it was a fringe and 20 miles away got 12”+ then ya that kinda sucks. But I was thrilled with that 3-4” storm I got in December! When I’m analyzing patterns my goals are big. I can’t control anything so why not look for signals for big storms? But that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy if we get a regular snow. And it’s not like we’re getting those anyways. It’s not been snowing at all lately. My issue with progressive waves isn’t that they aren’t a HECS. It’s that they typically have a narrow zone of snow and the patterns that produce them are rarely going to lead to a snowy season. Rooting to get lucky with those is basically setting our high bar for the season at below average for the region as a whole. Ya maybe someone gets lucky to hit a couple and beat climo but as a whole we don’t get snowy seasons that way.

Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet

Well this is it... we are getting the exact pattern we wanted from this Nino and its lining up exactly with our best snow climo. Next 30 days on EPS Temps If we don't get a lot of snow out of this it won't be because we didn't get the nino pattern we wanted.

I see what you are saying, and historically I would be more excited...but given recent trends do we think that would still be "cold enough"? Also, its a deamplifying pattern with no real thermal boundary in the east, just a big dome of decaying cold under the NS. Not sure how likely getting an organized storm there would be. Anything that amplified would seek out the real thermal boundary way up to our north. So while its not the torch you might think looking at the H5 I am not enthused at the chances of snow there either. BUT...the pacific is already aligning into the PERFECT look by day 15 to begin the process of getting back to a good snowstorm threat window by early February, that is the best thing I take from that day 15.

I agree with everything you said, but "better" is a low bar given what the recent results have been lol.

Having a significant cluster of "wins" is a huge deal. The GEFS mean looked similar yesterday but it was a false flag because it was a compromise between two bad solutions. This indicates the euro thinks we have a legit shot.