psuhoffman

30 days.

Chuck isn’t impressed

@Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree.

The weeklies are a smoothed mean. You’re never going to see a -3 Stdv block on a 30 day day 10-40 mean. But if you look at some of the individual control runs they show that.

It’s classified as moderate by the ONI https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

lol relax, Ji always poo poo's the weekly snow mean maps. And my point is regarding the control runs, it made a huge jump south today, but yea we want to see those 50" numbers centered over DC, and yes that can happen in this type of pattern. The control run can and does see discreet threats, its just an extended regular model run, when it shows the same general pattern, and it has consistently every day lately, it can hint at what the specifics COULD look like. But yea its likely to be way off at these ranges, no one should be freaking out about it, I said we have plenty of time...but its true that when/if we starting seeing those crazy 40"+ totals centered south of 40 on some of those long range control runs is when its go time. That's the look we typically get 1-2 weeks ahead of our crazy snow periods.

A hudson bay high works just as well as a -NAO if there is a 50/50 stuck east of it and a STJ cutting under. Its not a HECS look but we've had plenty of SECS/MECS events from a setup like that.

There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead.

2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation.

1958 is one of 3 times in the last 75 years DCA got 10” in March. DCA had 28” between Feb and March 58. 32” in Feb 2010.

Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time.

Yesterday and today’s looks much better but still a little north of what I want to see. Before some have a fit, there is plenty of time to see it get there but if you go back to periods when we were about to get crushed, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and even some where it didn’t work out but it could have like 2018 and 2019…what you saw was a snow mean where snow actually decreased as you got north of the PA line! That’s when you start licking your chops! When I’m worried about the north fringe! There is time to get to that. It’s still far far out. And it’s adjusting towards that the last few days but not there yet.

Still too far north. But closer.

The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad.

There is no one spot that is representative of the whole region. People just have to know where they live. Obviously the people who live in places like Winchester or Leesburg can have higher expectations in March than places further southeast. UHI locations become especially problematic during the day in March.

DCA is a minimum even for that region.

Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March.

I haven't given up on my 40" prediction. I had the chance to back down when everyone was doing their mid year evaluations and I decided to let it ride. Would I prefer we had scored maybe another 5-10" by now, of course, but I think we still are in the game to finish big. If my life depended on it I would say we probably fall just short of that, but I think we at least make a run at it. All it would take it one BIG hit for us to get there imo.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1750514866593395179?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it. I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products. The details usually follow the pattern. You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way.

Relax Randy’s stuff is in good fun.

@stormtracker I’m keepIng an eye on it. But it’s going to have extreme boundary thermal issues to start. I don’t think the gfs wonky progression with a weaker disconnected secondary can work. It wouldn’t likely cool the boundary enough for 95. Your better bet is to get the euro solution with a more phased system that stalls and really deepens, only get it to happen 75 miles south of where 12z had it. We saw an adjustment like that last week it’s not impossible. Improbable but not impossible.

Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all.

But I'm talking about individual members within that mean that also show a perfect pattern but displace the snow north of us. That is a little different. If it was just the mean I wouldn't say anything...the mean can be washed out easily. But I have followed these long range products for years. This is unusual. It's not just a fluke run or two. Its been a consistent theme on the extended control members for like 10 days now to have some absolutely perfect beautiful pattern but the snow is well north anyways. That is odd, that is not something I have observed much. Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it.

They showed some snow but less than we got, but that was because they were two pretty weak insignificant waves in the flow. They both hit us flush and we maxed out and so one small area, US, did well. But in a grand sense they were very insignificant synoptic events that long range guidance will have a hard time seeing well. Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be. Because that was a significant wave, and it took a perfect track, we were just a little too warm when it came down to it, but from distance the runs that thought it would be slightly colder, were indicating what would have happened had it been a few degrees colder leading into that event. That was our one chance at a MECS level snowstorm this winter so far and it failed simply because it was a few degrees too warm. Guidance was right to be indicating potential there.