psuhoffman

Not there but cam says it’s snowing at home

It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you…

Clipper

Ggem wants to replay 2010. It’s got a Feb 5 2010 type storm then tried to pull off a repeat of Feb 10. @Stormchaserchuck1 that’s what SHOULD happen with a -3stdv block during a Nino.

That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two.

yea we’re certainly not getting lucky with several long term hostile cycles converging

It depends. So you can drill down on a specific factor. The expanded pac Hadley cell. The IO and Western Pac warm pool. The warmer Gulf and Atlantic contribution to TNH. The MC forcing issue. But if you pull back they all have a common thread!

Except that’s not an option I agree there is more going on here. The TNH pattern has been persistent even during blocking which used to be rare. I think the AMO isn’t helping either. Along with warmer gulf and Atlantic it’s pumping the SER more than the last -pdo period.

No…if there is an explanation other than “the elephant” I’m open to hearing it.

You have to normalize for today’s heights. It’s where the troughs and ridges are that determines the long wave pattern. What was barely a positive then is a bright red torch ridge now simply because of the much warmer background state. example look at 1950-1957. look at the heights now. same long wave pattern just the heights are higher EVERYWHERE

-pna

Enough pointing out the -pna. We’re in a -pdo cycle. The pna is going to be the dominant base state so long as we’re in this pacific cycle and that could last a long time. The PDO runs in both short and longer cycles. We were in a -pdo predominant from the 50s through the 70s. 80s-2016 it was predominantly positive. We’ve clearly flipped negative. And might be in that the rest of our lives do stop pointing out the obvious when the pna is going to be negative almost all the time! instead what do we need to snow in a -pna?????…We snowed plenty during previous -pdo cycles during a -pna. The typical way was with a -nao forcing the western trough to broaden and energy to cut under the block into the southeast. In past -pdo cycles +AO/Nao periods were god awful but -AO/NAOs were snowy. 1958, 1060, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1978, 1979 all were extremely snowy with a predominantly-pna! In all those years the nao is why. The composite of our snowiest winters during the last 30 year -pdo cycle. but focus just on the pac it’s its same exact pac pattern you keep saying is why we won’t snow. But we got dumped with snow in all those years! So why isn’t the nao working anymore? And if it isn’t since we’re going to have a -pna just about all the time what do we need to snow in a -pna?

Cutter cutter cutter cutter suppressed

This wasn’t subtle at all. Up your troll game. Maybe it did that with 2016, but it did the same thing in 2021 with the Feb 1 storm. Like 24 hours out it had a run with 50” in MD north of DC. Next run was 55” near Lancaster. Next run Allentown. I know usually kuchera is overdone when there is no mixing. But in this case it does a much better job near the rain snow line by calculating the very low ratios in the barely snow or mix area. The 10-1 is way overdone along the transition area.

I have IKON not EPIC lol so we are looking at opposite mountains. But one of my best college friends has a place in southern VT so it was an easy choice. If you were going up to PA for a mountain not on your pass and you care about the skiing, Elk is by far the best ski mountain in PA. It's a little further, north of Scranton.

Once the tpv gets to about 95-90* we have a shot. West of there and I find it hard to believe a wave doesn’t cut. Question is when does it get there and how suppressive is it.

Days since DC has an inch of snow.

Since its been so long...just for reference... This is what we want the antecedent airmass to look like as a wave comes at us NOT THIS It was closer to an even bigger event if the NS would have phased in. But the setup was nice...way too far out to know if the GFS is even close. I would like to see the ensembles start to show this discreet wave with a bit more clarity over the next couple days. They picked up on this current wave from like day 15 which was amazing. I don't expect that...but we want to see some hints at this on the ensembles soon.

Don't have to go that far either... the Poconos are going to get it pretty good. Lake Harmony, Mt Pocono, Tobyhanna area...anywhere in there will get 12" plus I think and a really nice thump snow tomorrow afternoon/evening. It's not that far a drive.

I'm heading to my friends cabin in southern VT.

ERS is right, its not his fault its not going to snow in DC. It's been 719 days since DC had an inch of snow. Not a snowstorm...just an inch! And sadly just before this, only a few years ago we missed setting the then record longest snow draught by just a few days. So... how can you take anyone seriously who has been saying how great everything looks though all that? The same people who have hyped threat after threat while we have had NO SNOW. We make fun of JB all the time, but at the same time we pick on the people who give an honest assessment.

719

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently. We've seen this play out a lot lately. Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific. But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part? Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east?

@TerpeastI agree the last 24 hours has not trended the way I want to see. The biggest problem is after the front clears and we get the TPV into a good location...instead of energy continuing to dump in behind (and that would be our storm threat) it's trending towards the whole pattern immediately breaking down and the trough splitting/pulling back once the TPV slides east. We get a temporary window with the look we want on the atlantic side as that TPV slides through the 50/50 but there is nothing behind it to amplify and once that 50/50 slides out we probably ridge out again. @Maestrobjwa this is the part you want to read Positive Spin: It's still far enough out that it could change. Also, both the EPS and now the GEFS ext both, people didnt talk about it but for weeks the GFS ext looked like hot garbage and was saying winter is over but now it shifted to the EPS weekly, both show the pattern recycling quickly into what we want by the end of January. That is still time for us. As as long as we do actually get to the canonical look by February we will be ok. Less positive analysis (for those that just want to feel good stop now) I have some concerns regarding longer term patterns here. Yes we are in a hostile PDO regime. But that is NOT 100% responsible for this mess. The other issue is we are also in a hostile tropical forcing regime and that is mostly due to the warm pool in the western tropical pacific and the IOD cycle. Problem is that doesn't seem to be a temporary thing to me. The waters there are less influenced by the cyclical currents and patterns as other places. The warming there, and I've read this from those that know way more about it than me, might simply be warming related in and around the MC. That problem isn't going away. @Terpeast and @WxUSAF curious your take on this observation. We've been in a repetitive cycle where during jet extensions the warmer Pac in general floods North America with such a torched airmass that we have no shot no matter what the longwave pattern over the east ends up being or the local storm track. Then when the jet retracts and we build cold somewhere in the continent the PDO and MC forcing guaruntees it dumps into the west and we ridge to kingdom come in the east. I also believe the warmer Atlantic and Gulf are causing the persistent TNH configuration with pumps the SER more than even a -3 Stdv block can do anything about. We've seen that time and time again. The problem is I am starting to see hints this might even repeat again. After this current cycle by the time the cold does press east we are getting signs of the next jet extension which could scour the cold then are we are back to square one when we get a more favorable pattern late Jan/Feb? The question is...are you seeing what I am seeing and what can mitigate this? What do we need???

Depth of the airmass isn’t good enough. Yea we’re cold now because we’re directly under the axis of the northerly flow behind an amplifying wave. But at its zenith the cold barely gets south of us and isn’t expansive so as soon as the return southerly flow hits ahead of the next wave it’s easily scoured out. But hey we’re only 12 days after the long wave flow changed and the pac puke was cut off. . We need at least 3 weeks of a good long wave pattern to have any chance to be cold enough.