psuhoffman

A hudson bay high works just as well as a -NAO if there is a 50/50 stuck east of it and a STJ cutting under. Its not a HECS look but we've had plenty of SECS/MECS events from a setup like that.

There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead.

2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation.

1958 is one of 3 times in the last 75 years DCA got 10” in March. DCA had 28” between Feb and March 58. 32” in Feb 2010.

Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time.

Yesterday and today’s looks much better but still a little north of what I want to see. Before some have a fit, there is plenty of time to see it get there but if you go back to periods when we were about to get crushed, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and even some where it didn’t work out but it could have like 2018 and 2019…what you saw was a snow mean where snow actually decreased as you got north of the PA line! That’s when you start licking your chops! When I’m worried about the north fringe! There is time to get to that. It’s still far far out. And it’s adjusting towards that the last few days but not there yet.

Still too far north. But closer.

The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad.

There is no one spot that is representative of the whole region. People just have to know where they live. Obviously the people who live in places like Winchester or Leesburg can have higher expectations in March than places further southeast. UHI locations become especially problematic during the day in March.

DCA is a minimum even for that region.

Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March.

I haven't given up on my 40" prediction. I had the chance to back down when everyone was doing their mid year evaluations and I decided to let it ride. Would I prefer we had scored maybe another 5-10" by now, of course, but I think we still are in the game to finish big. If my life depended on it I would say we probably fall just short of that, but I think we at least make a run at it. All it would take it one BIG hit for us to get there imo.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1750514866593395179?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it. I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products. The details usually follow the pattern. You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way.

Relax Randy’s stuff is in good fun.

@stormtracker I’m keepIng an eye on it. But it’s going to have extreme boundary thermal issues to start. I don’t think the gfs wonky progression with a weaker disconnected secondary can work. It wouldn’t likely cool the boundary enough for 95. Your better bet is to get the euro solution with a more phased system that stalls and really deepens, only get it to happen 75 miles south of where 12z had it. We saw an adjustment like that last week it’s not impossible. Improbable but not impossible.

Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all.

But I'm talking about individual members within that mean that also show a perfect pattern but displace the snow north of us. That is a little different. If it was just the mean I wouldn't say anything...the mean can be washed out easily. But I have followed these long range products for years. This is unusual. It's not just a fluke run or two. Its been a consistent theme on the extended control members for like 10 days now to have some absolutely perfect beautiful pattern but the snow is well north anyways. That is odd, that is not something I have observed much. Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it.

They showed some snow but less than we got, but that was because they were two pretty weak insignificant waves in the flow. They both hit us flush and we maxed out and so one small area, US, did well. But in a grand sense they were very insignificant synoptic events that long range guidance will have a hard time seeing well. Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be. Because that was a significant wave, and it took a perfect track, we were just a little too warm when it came down to it, but from distance the runs that thought it would be slightly colder, were indicating what would have happened had it been a few degrees colder leading into that event. That was our one chance at a MECS level snowstorm this winter so far and it failed simply because it was a few degrees too warm. Guidance was right to be indicating potential there.

The fighting has become ridiculous this week. Why not just let everyone think, feel, and talk however they want? Ok, so I get it that if you're happy with the winter having to hear someone post about how not happy they are can be frustrating. But know what is more frustrating, the 25 posts back and forth where the people happy are telling them not to deb, and then the 25 posts from the people not happy telling the happy people that its not good enough. Or maybe you think a specific topic doesn't belong here, but unless its really egregiously off topic why not just let it go because that's better than the 25 posts arguing about what we should or shouldn't talk about in every thread. Why not just let everyone be and talk how and about what they want? Read the posts you are interested in and skip the stuff you are not. Filling up the threat with crossfire about how to feel and what to talk about is making it so much worse imo. I am sure given the mood of the board I will probably be told to F off and then we will fight about what I just said...but I thought I would at least try.

I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic. The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada. I saw that back in 2019 for example. It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality. There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years. We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years. March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode. In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe. Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like. This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has. There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them! That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern. The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots. Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA. I agree it's not something to be overly worried about. But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern.

I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north. Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. @Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed.

I thought that but I’ve been posting the control to show even the individual runs seem to have that incongruence. As for why it seems there are a lot of perfect track rainstorms on the runs similar to that storm earlier this month where despite a good track the snow is northern PA into New England. I’m not too worried about it. History beats surface output at range 90% if the time. Just pointing it out.

Those Millers numbers are pretty close to mine. For the several I was here for on that list I had snowcover just a few days longer. 2021 I lost snow March 2 v Feb 27. Makes sense most storms Millers is pretty close but typically maybe an inch less. I knew it snowed more up here but I was most surprised after moving here was how much longer snowcover lasts here v in the metro areas.

Been the opposite of can kicking the last week. At one point it looked like Feb 11 before we got to what the ensembles are now showing around Feb 8.