psuhoffman

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way.

Tell Stormy

Fair enough

Bait

You can do both. I haven’t complained one bit about the snow I got this week. I’ve had a great time with the kids. But I can shade a bigger storm also. I fail to see the conflict.

Go Ravens. Who Id like to see win the SB 1) ravens 2)Bills 3)Detroit 4) anyone but the 49ers!

Between both storms it was enough to finally do this

I don’t like the methodology behind that chart. It used way too many locations. And there is mention of the correlation value just the mean. The mean can be skewed by a huge storm somewhere.

As long as one of those small march events for you is my annual 10” wet snow bomb up here I’ll take it.

For those tracking we have a short window as the pna ridge first goes up before it spreads east to maybe sneak in a threat. Around the 30-31. After that the eps days the pattern flips back favorable around Feb 10-12. Gefs more like 15-18. Keep in mind I’m talking about the long wave pattern. If the continent gets torched and we need 2-3 weeks to build cold again after the pattern changes…well the the clock starts to become a problem! Let’s hope later in winter we can work with the crap air mass left behind or cold can build south faster!

@CAPE you’ve done a great job explaining I just wanted to add visual to what you’re saying. look at these two weeks on the gefs ext. what’s the difference? week 3 Week 5 The pacific configuration is similar. Actually the jet is more extended week 5! What! But how….because the nao flipped which changes the downstream reaction to the same pacific pattern. Like Cape said there are so many moving parts. But to generalize central and east based Ninos the jet will be extended a lot. But that works provided the nao is negative. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic periods kick started by a jet extension. True west based Modoki ninos can roll without blocking because the jet extensions are rather tame and can set up a more western leaning pac trough which in turn leads to a perfect epo pna ridge and we can roll without any nao help. Years like 2003 and 2015 fell in this category. But that was never the gameplan this year. We need nao help. The sudden and drastic flip in the nao is what turned things on its head.

There may be a transient window of opportunity as the pac get begins to extend and a pna epo ridge goes up. It’s possible we sneak something in. Problem is after that the pattern compromise to progress and shift the ridge east and with a raging pos nao there is nothing to resist the warmth from coming across the whole continent. If we had a -nao it might force the pac jet to cut under and we would be ok for that same pacific look is hostile with a pos nao, The pna ridge just spreads out into a full conus ridge.

Jet extensions have been the loading pattern for most of our epic Nino snowstravaganzas.

Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter!

yea, wish the weather was as predictable as the Cowboys in the playoffs!

They were asking me to shove this vort south for them so some must think so.

There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February. The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while. Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good. That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern. As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again. But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was. I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm. I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches. 1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities. My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those. And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those. Lately its all rain even in some of those places. We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad. Some people don't agree with me on this. And that is fine. It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways.

The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th.

RAIN lol Shame we can't get a perfect track like this during prime climo...

SHHH they think fringed isn't a real thing. But in the long run we will do better. I had a nice event in Dec that most missed. But my big advantage is in marginal temp storms, not setups like this. You win some you lose some, but yea its been a rough couple of years up here. 2022 was actually decent down south but up here it was way below avg. Hope people remember this when I get some 12" wet snow bomb in March that is mostly rain in DC and they don't come up here with pitchforks.

Actually I'm getting nervous about that... I was kinda holding out hope this next round might be decent up here but its starting to look like the next band wants to set up right where the last one did.

I'm in the same boat. Ill probably be SLIGHTLY above climo for this date by the end of today...but by the time we get to our next window of opportunity, if the next 2-3 weeks go the way I currently think, I will be WAY behind again.

They are, but if they go the next couple weeks with no snow they will be back to below again lol

Congrats to everyone to the south today!

Still only light snow up here. Seems like the heavy bands are struggling to get north of Westminster so far.