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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    I wouldn’t say that. Mean precip week 3 week 4 week 5
  2. psuhoffman
    EPS control clips us a couple times then finally gives us a hecs but not until March 15. How many will make it? lol
  3. psuhoffman
    If a storm does hit around Feb 22-23 it will be the longest lead tracking event ever. It’s been on the radar since it was like 4 weeks out on extended guidance.
  4. psuhoffman
    You’re missing the point. Yes there may be a lag for it to couple and cause another deep blocking period. But that’s irrelevant when the nao is already tanking! We just need it not to quickly bounce back. Yes maybe the nao has another crazy dive in March because of the SPV collapse in Feb but what’s most important here is that a weaker SPV means the already -nao is unlikely to recover any time soon.
  5. psuhoffman
    How do you even judge a “lag” if the nao is already negative when the SPV weakening happens? But the point is we don’t need to wait for the SPV to impact the tpv. The fact the SPV is weakening will simply prevent a quick recovery of the tpv. So what if it may or may not cause another crazy block later in March or April. That’s not the most important thing here.
  6. psuhoffman
    I don’t get the lag talk. The lag is when we have a beast of of TPV and need to wait for the SPV to impact it. The TPV is already in the process of collapse due to pacific forcing combined with Atlantic wave breaking. The SPV collapse will simply prevent a quick recovery and foster additional -nao cycles. This is also very similar to 2010 when repeated SPV hits acted in conjunction with troposphere forcing to create a long lasting and extensive blocking regime.
  7. psuhoffman
    I tend to think the -nao will flux, it won’t be the beast it looks to peak around Feb 18-20 the whole time, but I doubt it goes positive again for a while. We might just run the table here.
  8. psuhoffman
    The gefs and eps are coming around to the same blocking look the geps has had just a couple days later. The geps was just 48 hours too fast getting there.
  9. psuhoffman
    2010 really is the best analog to this progression. Just everything is displaced about 2 weeks like you said. It’s nearly identical in how it’s getting from A-Z in almost every way. I’m just careful throwing that around since it’s literally our snowiest period ever. That took some luck on top of the great pattern. But this has that level of potential. At the least it will be difficult to escape this without a significant snowfall.
  10. psuhoffman
    Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range. 1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything else has. We’ve actually had some incredibly impressive blocking regimes recently. Just often they’ve been muted by a god awful pacific. But seeing the mjo progressing towards 7/8 in a Nino combined with our two previous blocking regimes this winter left me with little doubt that the nao block would be legit. 2) if you look at all the best analogs to this winter, 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010, 2016, there was a period at some point where things lined up and we got this look. There is variability to when it happened. There is chaos within the patterns. But they all at some point lined up for a period conducive to big snowstorms. The only basin wide strong Ninos that didn’t were the fluke seasons of 92 and 95 where we got no nao help all winter. This just makes sense. It’s supported by everything we see now. Mjo progression. SPV state. Tanking soi. Historically it fits. This is why I said the bar this season has to be high. This really is the rare once a decade type season where we have the potential to go way above avg snowfall. We have to take advantage of it. I think there is a very good chance we do.
  11. psuhoffman
    Monthly temp anomalies are overrated. They can we skewed by a week. The eps nailed the long wave pattern closely. The warm periods were just warmer and skewed the temps. This happens a lot. Mild periods are so warm lately it’s hard to get a cold month.
  12. psuhoffman
    EPS has been nailing the long range a lot this winter.
  13. psuhoffman
    We have threads for specific threats once they are inside 5 days or so. But that’s a different kind of thread. We know what the general pattern is going to be by 5 days. Discussion inside 120 hours focuses on a specific event and the details of that threat not so much pattern generalities. The problem with a permanent day 1-5 thread is they 90% of the time there is no specific threat inside 5 days and so the thread would be dead. like right now. If there was an inside 5 days only thread what would we even be discussing in it today since there is nothing of interest inside 5 days away.
  14. psuhoffman
    Meh
  15. psuhoffman
    Dec 2018 and Feb 1 2021 were really the only two legit changes we’ve had for a hecs storm since 2016 and neither was really as good as this setup.
  16. psuhoffman
    Yes
  17. psuhoffman
    Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score. Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction. Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.
  18. psuhoffman
    We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010. And one after. And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period. But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm. This is similar. Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that. The pattern isn't awful prior to that. I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period. But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period. If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression.
  19. psuhoffman
    The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.
  20. psuhoffman
    I don't know about "the can" but there are some people who need a kick. Seriously, yes we've been through a lot, I get it, and yea of course ideally we would all love for this to have set in sooner and not to have to wait for the back 1/3 of winter....but we are staring the best pattern we've had since 2010 in the face, its finally almost here...and now some are deciding its the time to go uber deb and fill the thread with emotional venting and freak outs. If this fails I will be there with ya full scorched Earth but seriously were about to enter our best chance at a truly significant snowy period in over 8 years, lets chill out and see how this shakes out. Some of us aren't going to make it at this rate.
  21. psuhoffman
    no but our best opportunities at a snowstorm are usually as the pattern matures and as a block starts to relax not as its developing. The transition period was always Feb 10-15 and that still looks right. But just because the pattern starts then does not mean it snows immediately. Unfortunately we typically snow more towards the end of a favorable blocking regime than towards the start. This is for several reasons. At the start of the pattern the airmass is usually problematic. The boundary is further north. It can often take a wave or two to pull the boundary south. Then as the blocking sets in often we can get a period of suppression even. As the block starts to relax some makes sense, the boundary is to our south and the relaxing flow can allow a wave to amplify as it crosses the country with cold in place. That is the simple path to snow here. Often we need simple.
  22. psuhoffman
    The look at the end of the ensembles is the loading pattern for all our big snowstorms. My guess is we start seeing some very snowy solutions in a few days when the period after starts coming into range.
  23. psuhoffman
    a parade of stj waves stuck under a block.
  24. psuhoffman
    This thread needs a resident therapist
  25. psuhoffman
    There are lots of other periods without a HECS in winter. Baltimore has only had nine 20” storms in 135 years of records! Only 2 weeks have had more than 1 such storm. There has only been 1 20” storm the 3rd week of Feb. logically what makes you think that one fluke storm is somehow indicative that it can happen that week and not the next? What if that one storm in 2003 hasn’t happened. Say something minor and stupid had gone wrong. Would we now be discussing whether a hecs can happen after Feb 13 instead? But that one time in 135 years moves the date? And what about the fact there was a 20” storm in March? Why is that one storm a fluke but the PD one isn’t? They are both just one storm. Explain the logic. Additionally there have been 11 storms of 10”+ in Baltimore after Feb 20. If you look at the daily snowfall records snowfall does not fall off a cliff after PD. That happens around Mid March. The frequency of 10” storms remains pretty steady until then. There must aren’t many 20” level storms. Actually the data supports the highest probability of them falls between Jan 22 and Feb 13. 5 of the 9 fall during those 3 weeks. That is a definite trend. But 4 fall outside and 1 after the cutoff date you’re arbitrarily crating. I have no idea why that one lone storm Feb 19 somehow makes that the cutoff in your head despite plenty of 10” and one 20” storm falling after. What the data indicates objectively is that our best snow climo is definitely Jan 20-Feb 12 or so. Yes the highest probability of a huge snow is within those 3 weeks. But that outside that a 10” storm and even a hecs is possible anytime between Mid Dec and Late March and if the right pattern were to present itself it’s not impossible.
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