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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    And we missed another threat a week later because it was suppressed! Worrying about if it can snow a lot late Feb and early March is the height of weird illogical paranoia imo.
  2. psuhoffman
    The waves earlier could work but the nao is going negative. The boundary is also pretty far north to start and there is a lot of NS influence. It’s not a bad look. I’m not saying the waves around 14-20 have no shot. But as the nao peaks then wanes and retrogrades west there will be a window with the boundary to our south and a relaxing but still blocked flow. That’s when we get a period where all we need is a healthy STJ wave to come along and boom. That’s the simple path to big snowstorms here. The waves before that would require phasing, timing with a 50/50, it’s just more complicated. @Ji those storms don’t fail because of the time of year. The first was relatively weak. The second failed to phase and intensify. It was a shame. Beautiful pattern. 990 gulf low. Perfect track. But it did this weird fujiwara with the mid and upper features and never fully developed a healthy CCB. There was just a huge area of light snow. We wouldn’t have done any better had it been earlier.
  3. psuhoffman
    Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense.
  4. psuhoffman
    Oh and F all these twitter Johnny come latelies who want to jump on this now when we’ve been tracking it in here so long I think the first thread was chiseled with rock and stone.
  5. psuhoffman
    The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10. The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms.
  6. psuhoffman
    I was thinking that also, but even so I didn't think those dates were that bad.
  7. psuhoffman
    I know some are getting nervous about "the clock" but we are fine IMO. Yea of course ideally it would be awesome if this was setting in late January like in 2010. That was perfect. But the pattern setting up mid February is not too late. We have had some epic runs late Feb through March in the past. 1959, 1960, 1964, 2014, 2015. In 2018 the only reason we didn't get more snow in March was that several storms got suppressed! 1980 there was a HECS to our south in March. Getting this type of pattern is extremely rare. It only happens once or twice a decade! So there is simply a limited sample size and opportunity. But the times this type of pattern has happened in late Feb or March we had no problem getting snow. I do not think we are "running out of time" at all. If the coming pattern is legit we will be able to snow well into March in that look.
  8. psuhoffman
    I would argue those match dates aren't bad. There were a couple nice coastals in early March 1998 that were just a bit too warm. It looks colder this time heading in than 1998. That 1978 date is right after a big storm. 1958 lead to a couple big storms. 1980 a HECS missed just to our south. 1969 had a couple HECS storms that just didn't come together perfectly for us, our area they were SECS level events. There was a MECS near the 1987 date and 1960 was right before one of our best late season runs ever.
  9. psuhoffman
    There is amazing consistency between the extended GEFS and EPS on the patter evolution. Both indicate our best chance of a big storm still looks to be between Feb 22-25. Both have the NAO reaching a peak around Feb 18-20 and then retrograding/fading a bit. This is not to say we won't have legit threats before that window, just according to the progression that period, as the NAO relaxes and retrogrades, is when we have a very high probability, and both ensemble systems track several waves to our south during this period of interest. Looking way out, both then recycle the same pattern in late Feb early March.
  10. psuhoffman
    I expect a mix of March 58 Feb 83 and 2010 but the intensity of 1993.
  11. psuhoffman
    The first pulse of the -nao looks to peak around Feb 16-20. Our best chances as a big storm typically come as the nao starts to relax off a peak. Also it often takes a couple waves to carve out the trough into our ideal configuration. @Bob Chill likes to post on that concept. He explains it better than me. This is all very very general pattern progression tea leaf reading here though. Don’t get hung up on it too much. I’m just laying out based on what I’m seeing now the general progression might go. And don’t fret about Feb 24 v Feb 18. I promise you Baltimores climo doesn’t significantly change in those few days. Baltimore has had numerous 10” storms in March and a 20” storm March 30. We’ve missed a couple HECS storms to our south after those dates. I promise you of the perfect setup comes along Baltimore can get a huge freaking snowstorm the last week of February and even early March. It’s simply small sample size and random chance that there hasn’t been an hecs yet during that week.
  12. psuhoffman
    Screw that one of my favorite non HECS storms was the March 20 2018 storm. I’ll take snow on July 4 if that’s when I can get it. People around here who are picky about when it snows might need a smack upside the head to remind them where we live.
  13. psuhoffman
    The local results could be similar and 1960 was an amazing late winter period, but 1958 is the better analog because it was a similar strength Nino. And you can see the similarities in the pacific to the coming pattern on the 1958 h5 composite below. compare that to 1960 which was an enso neutral year and you see while there is definitely a similar nao blocking regime and subsequent eastern trough, the pacific pattern is not as close a match. It’s not way off but it’s lacking the canonical Nino central pac low, or at the least is muted. This doesn’t mean the ground truth doesn’t end up similar but that’s why people are using 58 more than 60 as an analog. 2010 is an excellent analog to the coming pattern but obviously this is going to be displaced about 2 weeks later than 2010 which makes 1958 the best analog we have imo.
  14. psuhoffman
    For the record the control which produced that 7 day mean I posted does snow on us 3 times. One MECS and 2 SECS level events.
  15. psuhoffman
    If the guidance is even close with the coming period Feb 15-March 15, it would be really really difficult for us to escape without at least one significant snowstorm. I am NOT saying a HECS, those take some luck even in the best patterns, but if we don't get at least one significant snowstorm I would be very surprised. I think my over under would be one MECS and one SECS storm...more would take a little luck, less would take bad luck.
  16. psuhoffman
    I am not being snarky, I am genuinely curious how you think we should talk about the long range then? I have no issue with your methodologies but as far as I know none of them are helpful with diagnosing long range patterns. Pressure differences between DC and Pitt aren't going to help us glean anything about something 2-3 weeks away. So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered?
  17. psuhoffman
    Yea. I moved it over to the new thread. But holy crap
  18. psuhoffman
    Holy moly
  19. psuhoffman
    Then if you believe both extended ensemble systems the whole pattern recycles with a second deep blocking cycle and another very strong storm signal centered in early March.
  20. psuhoffman
    I think there are going to be multiple good threats but looking at the way the pattern is progressing I think our best chance at a MECS+ storm might be centered within a couple days either side of Feb 24th.
  21. psuhoffman
    Perhaps this is a warmer muted version of 2010 but displaced a bit later. We had that 3 week dead period after the cold/snowy mid Dec to early Jan in 2010.
  22. psuhoffman
    Ya everything’s on track. Everything’s been said. Feb 10-15 is the transition period. Gfs just showed how it’s possible to score in that window but the wave on the gfs is actually the wave break that tanks the nao and sets off an even better look after. From Feb 15 probably well into March we are looking at what is the absolute best long wave pattern for mid Atlantic snow that there is. We are going to be tracking multiple threats soon. I’m sure of it. We just have to be patient and wait for things to get into range.
  23. psuhoffman
    Oh, and just in case the GFS is actually correct, letting ya know now I will not be on here posting during that deform band that drops 12" in 6 hours over me, I will be out playing in it.
  24. psuhoffman
    You all know I will be the first to hit the red button when I think its warranted, but I was getting a big old laugh at all the freak outs the last couple days which IMO was simply impatience induced.
  25. psuhoffman
    Obviously this specific threat is unlikely to hit in this exact way, but it was a pretty classic nino way to score, split flow, cut off system crashes into southern CA and slides across the CONUS under the canada ridging.
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