psuhoffman

As the ridge gets undercut it becomes a defacto block, but displaced well south of usual. It's also evolving kind of opposite the usual progression where we either build blocking from Scandanavia or western Atlantic wave breaking. Early February is probably one of the only times it can be cold enough for a ridge that far south to work out. Obviously the nino jet undercutting is a big part of the equation also. I am a little worried the flow is going to be too suppressive for that Feb 6th threat. Just glancing at the h5 for that period it has the look of a carrolina snowstorm more than DC. But specific syniptic event's do not always follow the pattern script, there can be meso factors that could cause the wave to amplify more than typical. Either way I wouldn't be too upset if this first threat ends up squashed, I think we will have plenty of opportunities as waves eject from the southwest and as the ridging pulls north some later in the month they will have more room to amplify. I am not poo pooing this first threat, its got my interest, but this is just our first chance in what is likely to be a very long period of tracking coming. Hope everyone is resting up now.

Yea I mentally logged all his antics. 2010 was high on my analogs. I never understood his obsession with "east based nino" this year. First of all, I absolutely hate these semantic arguments. This is a spectrum. There is no hard divide where something goes from "east based" to "basin wide" to "modoki". But IMO this year is most definitely NOT east based. It's a basin wide. 1998 and 2007 were east based. This year has the same profile as 2016 and 2010 only it's in between the intensities of those other 2. And for me, IMO, the difference between basin wide and modoki is minor. The important thing is we do not want a true east based nino where the warm water is all banked up against south american and cools dramatically by the central pacific. That places the forcing too far east. But if you look at the anamaly locations of 2010 and this year they are nearly identical, this year is just stronger. There are trade offs, a true modoki is likely to have the Pacific low set up further west which can be ideal if there is no blocking...but it also can set up so far west it mutes the STJ influence and if you end up with blocking that can be less than ideal. There is also a correlation between the pacific low being tucked against AK and blocking so frankly so long as its not a super east based nino I'm fine. I don't engage in this ridiculous "is it or isnt it modoki" nonsense because the data says it doesn't even really matter.

Suddenly that bleep head is all over it. But seriously, I've mostly just ignored it all year, someone just posted an example of this today with BAMWX, but its become a "thing" for all these competing hypster accounts to pick a fight with each other over some inane timing difference, often intentionally being obtuse about it. Like with BAM, they go nuts about "everyone calling for cold" then cite the warmth this week, then say yea but it will get cold later in Feb, which is what everyone is saying. But they are relying on their loyal audience not knowing that and thinking they are owning everyone else. Its dishonest, annoying, and a clown show.

Omfg an ensemble mean 30 days out is never going to have comparable anomaly depth to an actual historical period. Any outlier members mute the anomaly. You’ve made this statement two days in a row and it’s ridiculous

It jumped south a bit the last 2 days already. My guess it continues to bleed that way

Not me. Just about every Nino pattern match produced multiple big storms

I know everyone thinks I think it shouldn’t snow anymore. No. My arguments are just we are losing marginal events. 20% maybe v 50 years ago. By whatever metric though and even factoring that in we’re so overdue for an epic dump. This is our chance. It’s been forever but everything’s lined up at the right time of year (I’d rather slightly late than early!) in a Nino and an stj about to go bonkers. It’s time to cash in.

Seriously it’s time to end this nonsense. Everything’s lined up. We just need the finish.

More than one

30 days.

Chuck isn’t impressed

@Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree.

The weeklies are a smoothed mean. You’re never going to see a -3 Stdv block on a 30 day day 10-40 mean. But if you look at some of the individual control runs they show that.

It’s classified as moderate by the ONI https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

lol relax, Ji always poo poo's the weekly snow mean maps. And my point is regarding the control runs, it made a huge jump south today, but yea we want to see those 50" numbers centered over DC, and yes that can happen in this type of pattern. The control run can and does see discreet threats, its just an extended regular model run, when it shows the same general pattern, and it has consistently every day lately, it can hint at what the specifics COULD look like. But yea its likely to be way off at these ranges, no one should be freaking out about it, I said we have plenty of time...but its true that when/if we starting seeing those crazy 40"+ totals centered south of 40 on some of those long range control runs is when its go time. That's the look we typically get 1-2 weeks ahead of our crazy snow periods.

A hudson bay high works just as well as a -NAO if there is a 50/50 stuck east of it and a STJ cutting under. Its not a HECS look but we've had plenty of SECS/MECS events from a setup like that.

There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead.

2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation.

1958 is one of 3 times in the last 75 years DCA got 10” in March. DCA had 28” between Feb and March 58. 32” in Feb 2010.

Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time.

Yesterday and today’s looks much better but still a little north of what I want to see. Before some have a fit, there is plenty of time to see it get there but if you go back to periods when we were about to get crushed, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and even some where it didn’t work out but it could have like 2018 and 2019…what you saw was a snow mean where snow actually decreased as you got north of the PA line! That’s when you start licking your chops! When I’m worried about the north fringe! There is time to get to that. It’s still far far out. And it’s adjusting towards that the last few days but not there yet.

Still too far north. But closer.

The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad.

There is no one spot that is representative of the whole region. People just have to know where they live. Obviously the people who live in places like Winchester or Leesburg can have higher expectations in March than places further southeast. UHI locations become especially problematic during the day in March.