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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Good stuff. I know many are skeptical but there are reasons I’ve been so bullish even from what might seem an illogical range. 1) nao blocking has not failed us the last 8 years. Everything else has. We’ve actually had some incredibly impressive blocking regimes recently. Just often they’ve been muted by a god awful pacific. But seeing the mjo progressing towards 7/8 in a Nino combined with our two previous blocking regimes this winter left me with little doubt that the nao block would be legit. 2) if you look at all the best analogs to this winter, 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010, 2016, there was a period at some point where things lined up and we got this look. There is variability to when it happened. There is chaos within the patterns. But they all at some point lined up for a period conducive to big snowstorms. The only basin wide strong Ninos that didn’t were the fluke seasons of 92 and 95 where we got no nao help all winter. This just makes sense. It’s supported by everything we see now. Mjo progression. SPV state. Tanking soi. Historically it fits. This is why I said the bar this season has to be high. This really is the rare once a decade type season where we have the potential to go way above avg snowfall. We have to take advantage of it. I think there is a very good chance we do.
  2. psuhoffman
    Monthly temp anomalies are overrated. They can we skewed by a week. The eps nailed the long wave pattern closely. The warm periods were just warmer and skewed the temps. This happens a lot. Mild periods are so warm lately it’s hard to get a cold month.
  3. psuhoffman
    EPS has been nailing the long range a lot this winter.
  4. psuhoffman
    We have threads for specific threats once they are inside 5 days or so. But that’s a different kind of thread. We know what the general pattern is going to be by 5 days. Discussion inside 120 hours focuses on a specific event and the details of that threat not so much pattern generalities. The problem with a permanent day 1-5 thread is they 90% of the time there is no specific threat inside 5 days and so the thread would be dead. like right now. If there was an inside 5 days only thread what would we even be discussing in it today since there is nothing of interest inside 5 days away.
  5. psuhoffman
    Meh
  6. psuhoffman
    Dec 2018 and Feb 1 2021 were really the only two legit changes we’ve had for a hecs storm since 2016 and neither was really as good as this setup.
  7. psuhoffman
    Yes
  8. psuhoffman
    Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score. Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction. Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.
  9. psuhoffman
    We got 2 snowstorms before Feb 5 2010. And one after. And that was what made that period our best ever, epic, every adjective you can throw at it, vs just a good period. But from 2 weeks out in 2010 we had identified the period around Feb 5 as the best chance for a big storm. This is similar. Saying that around Feb 23 looks really really good for a big snowstorm doesn't mean it can't snow before or after that. The pattern isn't awful prior to that. I wouldn't be shocked if we got multiple hits from this coming period. But if you look at how things are evolving, NAO really starting to tank around Feb 15, peaking around Feb 18-20 then retrograding/relaxing some...STJ getting active during that window, and the NS waves prior to Feb 20 having carved the thermal boundary to our south...everything is set up perfectly for that period. If you want to put money down on a HECS between Feb 21-25 is the absolute best chance. I wouldn't kick the Feb 17-20 period out of bed though, just it might be a little too soon in the progression.
  10. psuhoffman
    The pattern progression has been keying on that date for a while now, and as you said, now the guidance is actually starting to pick up on a specific wave even in the window.
  11. psuhoffman
    I don't know about "the can" but there are some people who need a kick. Seriously, yes we've been through a lot, I get it, and yea of course ideally we would all love for this to have set in sooner and not to have to wait for the back 1/3 of winter....but we are staring the best pattern we've had since 2010 in the face, its finally almost here...and now some are deciding its the time to go uber deb and fill the thread with emotional venting and freak outs. If this fails I will be there with ya full scorched Earth but seriously were about to enter our best chance at a truly significant snowy period in over 8 years, lets chill out and see how this shakes out. Some of us aren't going to make it at this rate.
  12. psuhoffman
    no but our best opportunities at a snowstorm are usually as the pattern matures and as a block starts to relax not as its developing. The transition period was always Feb 10-15 and that still looks right. But just because the pattern starts then does not mean it snows immediately. Unfortunately we typically snow more towards the end of a favorable blocking regime than towards the start. This is for several reasons. At the start of the pattern the airmass is usually problematic. The boundary is further north. It can often take a wave or two to pull the boundary south. Then as the blocking sets in often we can get a period of suppression even. As the block starts to relax some makes sense, the boundary is to our south and the relaxing flow can allow a wave to amplify as it crosses the country with cold in place. That is the simple path to snow here. Often we need simple.
  13. psuhoffman
    The look at the end of the ensembles is the loading pattern for all our big snowstorms. My guess is we start seeing some very snowy solutions in a few days when the period after starts coming into range.
  14. psuhoffman
    a parade of stj waves stuck under a block.
  15. psuhoffman
    This thread needs a resident therapist
  16. psuhoffman
    There are lots of other periods without a HECS in winter. Baltimore has only had nine 20” storms in 135 years of records! Only 2 weeks have had more than 1 such storm. There has only been 1 20” storm the 3rd week of Feb. logically what makes you think that one fluke storm is somehow indicative that it can happen that week and not the next? What if that one storm in 2003 hasn’t happened. Say something minor and stupid had gone wrong. Would we now be discussing whether a hecs can happen after Feb 13 instead? But that one time in 135 years moves the date? And what about the fact there was a 20” storm in March? Why is that one storm a fluke but the PD one isn’t? They are both just one storm. Explain the logic. Additionally there have been 11 storms of 10”+ in Baltimore after Feb 20. If you look at the daily snowfall records snowfall does not fall off a cliff after PD. That happens around Mid March. The frequency of 10” storms remains pretty steady until then. There must aren’t many 20” level storms. Actually the data supports the highest probability of them falls between Jan 22 and Feb 13. 5 of the 9 fall during those 3 weeks. That is a definite trend. But 4 fall outside and 1 after the cutoff date you’re arbitrarily crating. I have no idea why that one lone storm Feb 19 somehow makes that the cutoff in your head despite plenty of 10” and one 20” storm falling after. What the data indicates objectively is that our best snow climo is definitely Jan 20-Feb 12 or so. Yes the highest probability of a huge snow is within those 3 weeks. But that outside that a 10” storm and even a hecs is possible anytime between Mid Dec and Late March and if the right pattern were to present itself it’s not impossible.
  17. psuhoffman
    And we missed another threat a week later because it was suppressed! Worrying about if it can snow a lot late Feb and early March is the height of weird illogical paranoia imo.
  18. psuhoffman
    The waves earlier could work but the nao is going negative. The boundary is also pretty far north to start and there is a lot of NS influence. It’s not a bad look. I’m not saying the waves around 14-20 have no shot. But as the nao peaks then wanes and retrogrades west there will be a window with the boundary to our south and a relaxing but still blocked flow. That’s when we get a period where all we need is a healthy STJ wave to come along and boom. That’s the simple path to big snowstorms here. The waves before that would require phasing, timing with a 50/50, it’s just more complicated. @Ji those storms don’t fail because of the time of year. The first was relatively weak. The second failed to phase and intensify. It was a shame. Beautiful pattern. 990 gulf low. Perfect track. But it did this weird fujiwara with the mid and upper features and never fully developed a healthy CCB. There was just a huge area of light snow. We wouldn’t have done any better had it been earlier.
  19. psuhoffman
    Screw those people too. I don’t have to sell anyone anything. Snow is snow. The same people who complain about not getting any snow then are gonna be super picky about when it needs to snow and their idea of “too late” tosses like 1/3 of our snow climo. No. Not engaging in that BS nonsense.
  20. psuhoffman
    Oh and F all these twitter Johnny come latelies who want to jump on this now when we’ve been tracking it in here so long I think the first thread was chiseled with rock and stone.
  21. psuhoffman
    The snow means on the extended guidance is now responding as I would expect and shows 2 very clear signals in coordination with the cycles of the nao. As expected by the way the high latitudes are progressing one is centered around Feb 22-26 and the next around March 4-10. The look outside these two periods isn’t bad and we very well could snow from any of the waves after Feb 12 or so but those are the two best opportunities for big storms.
  22. psuhoffman
    I was thinking that also, but even so I didn't think those dates were that bad.
  23. psuhoffman
    I know some are getting nervous about "the clock" but we are fine IMO. Yea of course ideally it would be awesome if this was setting in late January like in 2010. That was perfect. But the pattern setting up mid February is not too late. We have had some epic runs late Feb through March in the past. 1959, 1960, 1964, 2014, 2015. In 2018 the only reason we didn't get more snow in March was that several storms got suppressed! 1980 there was a HECS to our south in March. Getting this type of pattern is extremely rare. It only happens once or twice a decade! So there is simply a limited sample size and opportunity. But the times this type of pattern has happened in late Feb or March we had no problem getting snow. I do not think we are "running out of time" at all. If the coming pattern is legit we will be able to snow well into March in that look.
  24. psuhoffman
    I would argue those match dates aren't bad. There were a couple nice coastals in early March 1998 that were just a bit too warm. It looks colder this time heading in than 1998. That 1978 date is right after a big storm. 1958 lead to a couple big storms. 1980 a HECS missed just to our south. 1969 had a couple HECS storms that just didn't come together perfectly for us, our area they were SECS level events. There was a MECS near the 1987 date and 1960 was right before one of our best late season runs ever.
  25. psuhoffman
    There is amazing consistency between the extended GEFS and EPS on the patter evolution. Both indicate our best chance of a big storm still looks to be between Feb 22-25. Both have the NAO reaching a peak around Feb 18-20 and then retrograding/fading a bit. This is not to say we won't have legit threats before that window, just according to the progression that period, as the NAO relaxes and retrogrades, is when we have a very high probability, and both ensemble systems track several waves to our south during this period of interest. Looking way out, both then recycle the same pattern in late Feb early March.
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