psuhoffman

Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time.

That composite is skewed by a LOT of nino storms...its not as far off if you only look at cold enso non nino snowstorms. The fact we are not in a nino lowers our chances of a major snowstorm significantly, but often when we do get the fluke cold enso snowstorm they do not match the larger composite. Also, there is a huge difference IMO between the -PDO regime we've been in recently and the coming look with a full ridge bridge from the NAO all the way into the north pacific, and a trough underneith it towards Hawaii. It's not nearly as hostile and those other factors around it matter just as much. It's not our BEST snowstorm look but we've had snows in worse looks than that. Its maybe a 7/10 look imo. I don't think the HECS is likely but I think we have a legit threat at something like the ICON or tonights GFS run spit out.

This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone

it is what it is

At least this GFS run knows where its supposed to put the death band damnit

We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase

But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right

If we can get a non super nino with a better PDO

it does if it allows the NS to get out ahead instead of diving in behind.

at 84 the STJ wave is "better" but the flow over the top is flatter...

Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results. Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky. Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately. But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20".

A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up. This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time. Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours.

RGEM missed the boat on the initial NS wave but its amplifying the STJ and second but weaker NS SW more...could be making a run at a different path to a good result, I guess we will see when the GGEM comes out soon but my concern would be that initial NS wave if it misses the chance to phase and ends up out in front could flatten the flow too much to allow the wave to climb until its too late. But we've not seen that path (more amplified STJ and phase with the next SW) on guidance to test it yet.

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

yes

The threat is legit, just wish the Euro and GFS were on opposite sides right now lol ETA: its complicated though with multiple SWs having to play nice and phase, which does lower the odds it pulls it off, but also increases the chances the best model might miss it and you get a scenario like when the JMA schooled everyone in 2006.

Why not both?

We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021. DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area. Another storm threat in that window got suppressed. Bad luck. We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier.

ICON was half way between the NAM/Euro look at 84 hours and the GFS and we got a close miss on a major storm, and a minor snowfall.

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

Maybe sooner, the divergence that leads to the different paths happens at only about 72 hours...so its possible the models latch onto a singular evolution soon, maybe even tonight.

Fair enough I was just comparing the NAM to the GFS like solutions...a more modest event is still possible from where the NAM left off.

It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet. There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late). But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course.

To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside