psuhoffman

Because we are in a -QBO strong Nino. Baltimore averages 42” of snow in -QBO moderate or stronger ninos. Even the median is close to 40”! Every other category of seasonal pattern drivers is under 20”! There was legit reason for the optimism. You know I’m usually pessimistic. I’ve usually predicted low snowfall lately. But I got fooled this year too. The sad thing is we just wasted a type of winter where we almost always go way above average on snow. And it’s rare. Only happens once every 15 years on average. This was a true disaster!

Fixed

I doubt we get cold enough for a typical storm. Any snow we get will have to come from a dynamically driven create your own cold scenario like March 58 or Palm Sunday 1942.

Why do you have to be repetitive. I’ve see the mjo talked about and posted 500 times. How many times are you going to talk about the mjo.

What Ji said

Context. Markets are wisely responding to the warm first 2 weeks which are the colder half of March and look like a torch! Even if we bet a colder back half and a few truly cold days and some snow March is going to end up below avg demand for nat gas.

I’ll preface by saying I’m extremely skeptical still. But it’s worth pointing out a blocking regime in a March is historically not necessarily cold but can produce snow. If you look at the raw temps the week of a March 58 for example, temps are avg. if a blocked amplified wave gets forced under is in March that can work. That’s a lot of ifs though. Just throwing it out there.

you know he is a toolbox

I'm more confident in that part...but without the pacific altering it won't be cold enough, and that part of the equation I am less confident.

we will know soon, the pattern change on the extended guidance is now only about 12-24 hours outside the range of the GEFS and EPS. They still look pretty identical at day 16 but the EPSX and GEFSX within 24 hours after quickly shift the AK trough westward and begin developing a +PNA, this is in conjunction with the merger of the canada and scandinavian ridges into a -NAO. If we don't start to see it show up tomorrow on the ensembles...I think its safe to assume its likely another extended guidance mirage.

It’s not that I’m not nervous about this. I’ve seen some things that bother me. There were times people were using the pacific as a blanket scapegoat and I pointed out at times we had the exact opposite long wave configuration yet the SER remained! But our last +pdo it snowed plenty. On the whole 2014-2018 was extremely snowy. So we have no evidence yet that a pos pdo has been affected by this recent tendency.

IMO it’s an intentional game. It’s a strategy to drown out a topic some don’t like. It’s the same thing each time. A harmless post about warming usually topically relates to the thread gets made. There are a few valid back and forth harmless replies. Then the same crew shows up and starts a damn fight about whether we should be talking about it. They intentionally make a huge mess of the thread. Then they say “look at this mess, see we can’t talk about this”. And the end result is they force the mods to come in and squash the discussion. And this makes them feel their ridiculous ass backwards stance is validated. They could (and they frankly do in other places) do this with almost anything. It’s a legit tactic, if an incredibly disingenuous one. What if they decide the nfl is too political and throw a fit like this in off topic when we discuss that? Why let them manipulate and bully the narrative this way?

The experts cant even seem to agree

@Ji the better pattern is progressing forward in time... the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO. The timing does match with the SSW. The issue is 1 we've been fooled twice now this winter by this kind of progression. 2, even if this time it's right were at the extreme tail end of when it would even matter wrt snowfall. So I understand the lack of interest. I will track till the bitter end. Why not.

You'll be even dryer though

Yea, I have two categories in my mind with this phenomenon. The worst are storms that I can say most definitely should have been snow. Storms where given the setup from the macro to the micro...everything about it says this was snow 90% of the time in the past...and then it just rains. Those are the really alarming ones. There have been a few of these over the last 5 years. That was one of them. Then there is a second more ambiguous category. These are good track waves in a really bad pattern. Most of those would have been rain in the past too so this one is more tricky. The thing is NOT ALL OF THEM were rain. We used to luck into a fluke snow sometimes from a lucky track even in an otherwise totally shit pattern. We NEVER seem to anymore. It's too warm, frankly its too warm to even be close. There was an example around the super bowl last winter. Yea the pattern was shite, but it wasn't even close despite a perfect track storm. It wasn't even snow at 4000 feet in the mountains! It was way way way too warm in a system where it should have at least been close and had an outside chance. This one is hard because its very easy to say "there was a lot wrong of course that wasn't snow" and that is correct. This issue is they are not even close, and none not one is ever snow anymore when in the past some were. IMO we've now lost any chance at any of those second category of storms. There is almost no way we can get a snowstorm in a really bad pattern just from a lucky track anymore. Its just too warm in torch patters now. And worse we are now losing some of the good track waves in a decent to good longwave pattern too...that one is more alarming.

Well since I am the main torch bearer for the argument you seem to be refuting lets start by definig what I am and am not saying. I am NOT saying that we wont ever get snowy winters or big snowstorms. I have said 2 things 1) I think the evidence is strong enough to suggest we are getting less snow, and the biggest % of that change is because -PDO cycles are becoming much worse. I have said there is not much evidence that +PDO cycles have been affected yet. 2) I have said we are getting less "cold" snowstorms than we used too and marginal events are leaving rain more often. As for what evidence I have...From 1964 when records began to 2010 IAD had 19 days with 4" of snow and a high temp 5 or more below freezing. Since not once. And worse, since 2003 it's only happened in one year, 2010. That is a statistically significant trend. As for a PDO, its now been 24 years since we got an above avg snowfall -PDO season! 24 years. This use to happen fairly regularly. It happened 9 times between 1950 and 2000. None since. Again a statistically significant trend. I think there is ample evidence that we are getting less cold storms AND -PDO cycles are getting worse.

The whole jet ended up north and you're right IMO that is what effectively disrupted the blocking. The vortex that was supposed to be under the block reinforcing it with wave breaking ended up right in the NAO domain and eventually phased with the TPV lobe to the west and consolidated into a +++AO/NAO.

The discussion between me and CAPE was topical, about a threat. But it also was discussing how warming might impact the threat...also topical. It was the stupid and IMO intentional freak out fit some threw after that mucked up the thread. Then they say...look at this mess we can't talk about this...which is what they want. I'm not playing that game. We disagree on some things...but you're always open minded about stuff warming isn't a prediction it has already happened The higher elevations of our region are not suffering nearly as much. The atmosphere is warming from the ground up. The higher you go the less impacted we are from the warming that has already happened. But just about every reporting station in our region not above at least 700 feet is in the midst of their least snowy period ever. The fact that some of the higher elevations in the area are doing better just proves my point even more!

There is some honest debate about how "due" we are. So on the whole the PDO has been more negative than positive since about 1998. If you count that whole period as the -PDO cycle then we are due for a flip. However, within that period there have been several notable extreme positive spikes in the PDO. One in the 2000's, a shorter one around 2010, and from 2013-2018. And if you think back to 2017 and 2018 those were just typical nina fails. It was very cold at times both winters. We got a lot of threats but they failed in typical too much NS not enough STJ ways. There was nothing alarming to any of us from those 2 years. It was really 2019 after the PDO flip that I started to notice alarming trends. This is where it becomes complicated. The PDO has become less predictable and regular in its cycles lately. I've also seen some theorizing that its becoming more -PDO dominant. Please don't shoot the messenger on that, I've done absolutely no research on that all I am doing is passing it along, I have no thoughts on whether its true. But I've seen speculation that some variation of those shorter +PDO periods, either 2003-2018 or just 2010-2018, actually were a +PDO cycle because +PDO's will be shorter and less table and -PDO's longer by comparison, and in that case we are maybe just starting the -PDO. I think the majority position is that the larger 1998-2024 period was a -PDO dominant period with just some weird variations within...and that we are due for a flip. I honestly have no idea which is correct, I just want it to flip damnit.

Dude just post your thoughts, Screw the people who can't handle hearing things they don't like.

we definitely are, I've said several times this would be a bad period in any era. The 2 closest pattern comps are the 50's and 70s which were both our two previous worst periods before this god awful straight from snow hell one. I am hopeful once the PDO flips positive we will resume a closer to historical normal snowfall regime. I still think we will lose some snow on the margins even in a positive PDO but it won't be nearly as bad. But I think we have warmed too much to overcome the hostile pacific base state in a -PDO making those cycles much worse than they used to be. Which is a big problem since we are talking about a cycle we will be in half the time. But I think we will still get snowy winters in positive PDO years. I don't THINK we've crossed that threshold yet.

Sorry I tried, I moved to the other thread...then came back in here 12 hours later and all there was were more posts about the same thing in here. Funny how some only seem to mind that topic when its being talked about in a way they don't like...

@CAPE here’s the thing. It’s BS. All of it. For 12 hours after I said “fine you win I’ll take it to the other thread” they kept posting their points in here. And it became ludicrous. It got to the point they’re arguing “actually it’s fine it’s been snowing a lot”. But that’s fine. They don’t have a problem with that even more off topic nonsense. It’s a game. They’re playing us all. They intentionally make a mess then use the mess to justify their position. Manipulating the discussion to drown out a narrative they don’t like and using these BS topicality arguments to do it.

That was a discussion of a potential event. But granted a day 15 op gfs storm is a stretch. But not like much else was being talked about. Here is the thing, this is a game they play. The little 4 post back respectful and forth we had isn’t what derailed things. It was the fit they threw about it. And then they use the mess they create on purpose to say “see we can’t talk about this”. And how much more delusional can we get. There was even a discussion implying “it’s actually been snowy”. It’s been literally the worst period in history and we’re debating “but has it actually been good”. I just can’t.