psuhoffman

How does it rotate when it’s flat?

I’ll be in Florida lol

people are going to get up tomorrow and see 75 new posts and think there is a blizzard coming then read this...lol

I’m going to try this next time I get pulled over. “Officer, why are you using how fast I’m driving today, a rolling 10 day average would be better”. This is semantics. You’re measuring snow trends. I’m comparing specific years. Those are different things. You’re saying this method is better. Ok. That’s your opinion. But the years I picked aren’t arbitrary.

I disagree with your last point. I’d much rather have a bunch of solid winters than a few great ones surrounded by dreg almost snowless years. But that’s opinion. The years aren’t arbitrary. I picked the last 8 years. I compared it to other low snow 8 year periods. Then projected how likely we would avoid the least snowy 10 years. None of that is arbitrary. The numbers are exactly what I said.

Without being home to check I think that’s like a quarter inch more than the 10 years from 1948-1957.

1968-1977 BWI had 143.1”. Unless BWI gets more snow this year they will have 75.3” from 2017-2024. BWI would be 67.8” short of that 10 year period with 2 seasons to go.

What do you have as the worst 10 year period?

Two things can be true.

This. I wouldn’t be talking about THIS depressing BS if we had anything optimistic at all to discuss.

That’s literally how I felt reading that!

10.3” is about 25% worse than the second worse 9 year period and yet you say it like it’s not that bad.

@brooklynwx99 I just ran the numbers again...this is what I'm talking about... For BWI the last 8 years have been the least snowy and not by a little...but an exponentially ridiculous margin over the next least snowy period. From 2016/17 to 2023/24 BWI has had 75.3" or an avg of 9.4" per season over that 8 years. The previous least snowy 8 year period was 1950 to 1957 with 99.5". This period is 24% less snowy than the next least snowy period! That is crazy ridiculous. But here is the really crazy part...its about to be sooooo much worse because all our previous snowless periods didn't last past 8 years...they were all bookended by very snowy periods. So you say we need more time...I don't think so, things are about to get crazy stupid soon if we dont get a 40" type season right quick. For example...BWI needs 44.4" next winter just to avoid it being the least snowy 9 years ever. But it gets even worse....over the next 2 years BWI would need 68" to avoid it becoming the least snowy 10 years EVER!... think of that...we need 68" in the next 2 years...not for it to become average, or just bad...but simply to not have it be the least snowy 10 years EVER. And it gets even worse after that...BWI needs to avg 37" over the next 3 years to avoid the worst 11 years ever...and it goes on and on. The bottom line is...its very likely we are NEVER digging out of this. We have fallen so far below the bar of all previous low snowfall periods that its unlikely we ever recover and get out of the red...and this does become the "least snowy 10, 12, 15...years ever going forward because it would take the kind of 1960s stretch to avoid it that likely just isnt possible anymore in todays climate. So no...I do think we have enough data to say.

The sample size is low if you parse this last 8 years into sub groups. But if you just take the whole period…we’re getting close to the ridiculous stage when you compare this to every previous low snowfall period. And if we don’t get some HUGE winters SOON it’s about to escalate to astronomical proportions because all the previous 8 year periods even close to this on snow were bookended by epic high snowfall periods.

@brooklynwx99 I was saying a lot of the same things you are years ago when people were alarmed. Nothing you’re saying is wrong when taken in a vacuum. But it’s been warm with very little snow for a long time now. If it doesn’t snow soon those statements just start to wear thin. It’s not you.

@CAPE curious…what if your life depended on BWI getting 35” next winter. What pattern would you want to see heading into winter to feel like you have a shot? Short of simply “hope the PDO flips” that ones obvious. But what if it’s still a -pdo. BWI has had 35”+ numerous times in a -pdo. Granted none in the last 30 years. But if you could draw up the pattern you want to see in this -pdo if you had to get 35” what would it be?

I feel like I’m looking at the scoreboard and we’re losing by 50 at the 2 min warning and the coach is saying “it’s ok guys, everything’s fine, focus on the next play”.

Yea I know how the CFS and a smoothed mean work. But I also know we’ve had 9 straight warm winters and we struggle to get cold at all anymore and lately the whole continent is warm and at some point all these “it’s fine chill out” posts only mean squat if it actually gets cold and snows. So long as we remain in this never ending torch snow hell I kinda don’t want to hear it.

I agree, but it’s sad because that means we are totally giving up on getting a legit snowy winter because that ain’t happening in a Nina. But ya I agree.

OK then...explain to me the longwave configuration that would work with that above? You realize the pac is actually GOOD there and the trough is over us...but none of that matters if its F'ing hot EVERYWEHERE

With so much blue it’s amazing we don’t get cold

Careful, you might be stalking him

Tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanoes oh my

EPS still wants to develop a workable pattern...GEFS wants no part of a pacific change

There are some patterns where the thermal gradient changes sharply north to south...others where there is not much difference over hundreds of miles and if you shift temps a couple degrees warmer suddenly its just too warm everywhere.