psuhoffman

He is just trying to stall to milk as many more monthly subs as he can. He knows. A few days ago he made a post admitting what wEnt wrong and he said all the same things we’ve been discussing here. Maybe he reads this! But then he immediately goes it this time will be different. Yea ok. Right. Plus even if it is he knows it’s too late for 95 to get much snow. He is trying to bilk people out of more $ that’s all.

I mean we could get a freak snowstorm next year. Nothing is 100% in this game. But if you forced me to bet money I’d go 4 years before 2.

When I was in competitive debate i hated when it went to the judges with any doubt. It was more satisfying when I left the opposition so completely defeated that they were an emotionally unstable train wreck either literally crying or screaming in incoherent rage and the only question was how lopsided the ballot would be.

My motivation isn’t caring what they think…

2027

I pointed out the day 15-16 ensembles today started to show a possible pattern change. But it’s also true guidance is can kicking and we can’t afford that at all. It’s probably already too late honestly. eps March 15 5 runs ago March 15 now Yea it still gets to the same place but now it takes until March 22 to get to where it was March 15 a few days ago.

Except the atmosphere is warming from the ground up which actually increases the gradient vertically which can increase the jet and interfere with blocking. And it’s not a 1:1 thing. The compression of the jets imo outweighs the warming of the polar vortex. It might be a weaker vortex but if it has a screaming zonal jet around it it’s not going to buckle and that will artificially enhance it and offset the warming.

Me, no. But some in here think warming is debatable, somehow thermometers are subjective tools in their reality, so it’s worth pointing it out.

I agree that the PDO is a cyclical issue and not CC. We’ve had PDO cycles like this before in the 50s and early 70s and they both sucked too, relative to those periods base state. But some of the other factors like the MC forcing and expanded circulation and north shift in the jet I’m more skeptical. Some of that seems a logical common sense effect of warming. But what do I know. We had an argument in here 2 nights ago that maybe the last 8 years were actually snowy. I mean the actual data says it was the least snowy period ever. But so what, apparently that is debatable.

Wouldn’t the expanded Hadley cell explain. If the jet is shifted north in the pacific the compression of the flow between the subtropical, polar, and arctic jets in the pacific speeds them up. Its also shifting the NS north. Add in the -pdo Nina base state that puts a ridge in the east more often. That’s a bad combo for getting a trough deep enough to get a clipper here. Doesn’t seem like a mystery to me.

we have plenty of tools

I don’t think the guidance was seeing the western pacific heat surge. They had it but much weaker than it ended up being. Around Feb 10 suddenly 2 things changed. The MJO wave suddenly died and started showing signs of competing convection in bad places again. And the western pacific ridge started to go nuts. That ended up progressing into a Nina like ridge and completely destroyed the pacific pattern. That combo also shifted the jet north suddenly which killed the nao also. The wave that was supposed to end up in the 50/50 space instead ended up north in the nao space. The super crazy 50/50 turned into a +nao lol. Why the guidance missed those 2 things i don’t know. I’ve heard people say they weight canonical historical response to the Nino too much at range and that makes sense except I don’t know if that’s actually true.

Sure. focus on the progression from the NAO back to the North Pacific. The Nina ridge is finally weakening and progressing. Look at the vacuum it’s leaving near the Aleutians at the end. Note the height tides in central Canada as the NAO goes negative. If that day 15 is correct, big if, the AK vortex will start to shift west as the Pac ridge vacates. It’s been acted on by the ridging developing in Canada. Without that Nina ridge there it will want to shift west. It’s about 48 hours away from looking like the weeklies there. Maybe even ahead by a day. Again I have no idea if that is correct. Last time the pattern change got all the way to like day 8 then collapsed. Just saying the ensembles today are showing early signs of the pattern change the weeklies are showing that’s all.

EPS also started to show signs at the end.

I can’t keep track of the discussions sometimes. Doesn’t matter other than our convo there was like 2 posts in here in the last 24 hours. day 15-16 there are signs of the pac finally shifting. It’s very preliminary if the ridge is weakening and the AK trough shows signs of weakening and shifting. It’s way out there. We will see.

That 2002 is a much stronger AK vortex though with more conus ridging. So was 1998. So were the other examples. Again I’m NOT saying it shouldn’t be warm. But it’s taking less to cause crazy torch patterns anymore.

They still happen. They just hit Vermont. The NS is too far north.

Are you reading a different forum then I am? We’ve been discussing the death of clippers a lot! At least 3 times this winter that discussion came up. And it’s some of the same reasons I just discussed for the lack of coastals. The jet being displaced north. There are still clippers but they hit Vermont now. The northern streak is too far north for us to get those. As for why…we’ve theorized the expanded Hadley cell, Nina base state and MJO in the pacific. But I’m open to other factors if you have a different theory.

I got a minor knee scope and a cortisone shot now I’m pushing my rehab hard in hopes I can save my season. My target date is Easter weekend. April is my favorite month anyways up at Killington, Stowe, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf. It’s ambitious but they said not impossible if I wear the bulky knee brace and have no set backs.

That was actually what I expected to do. I was having lunch and decided to look over the guidance expecting to call it. 0z looked like crap. I had my finger on the trigger then 12z looked better at the end. Ugh. But I’m ready. Any delay. And back off first hiccup and I’m pulling the trigger.

Today’s GEFS and GEPS actually are progressing things. The Atlantic shifts before the pac but at day 16 they’re showing signs of the Nina ridge weakening and first signs of the AK vortex shifting. It would happen quickly. With the -nao if the Nina ish pac ridge weakens that vortex in AK would retrograde quickly. It would probably split with a price dropping into the gulf if AK and another pulling west. That’s how the long wave pattern forcing would want it to go if not for the heat ridge to its west. So if that actually does come off it would happen quick. I still don’t know if it’s real or another head fake. Today was the day I was going to pull the plug if the pattern didn’t start to progress into the ensembles. And damnit it did. I was kinda wanting to just end this thing and call TOD. I’ve kinda moved on to other things. But obviously if a threat shows up I’ll track it.

A lot of the factors we’ve been discussing are what is causing that. I just haven’t worded it the same way. We’ve discussed how the pacific had key cell has been expanded shifting the jet north and accelerating the NS. This runs interference on getting a southern storm to phase and come up the coast. If the jet never digs south…if instead it’s racing among to our north constantly throwing SWs across the lakes it both screws up our thermals and suppresses any southern wave. Additionally the warm waters near the MC keep causing the MJO to stall and go nuts in the Nina hostile phases. This acts to suppress the STJ. Like I said we’ve discussed how these things are killing our snow but not necessarily worded it the way you just did.

Makes total sense. I showed by the numbers DC had had the same snow climo as used to be typical for central SC the last 8 years. Since 2010 it’s had the same snow avg as central NC. So places like southern VA and NC would be southern GA or Northern Florida now.

When I look at this I think warm. It’s definitely not ideal. But I don’t think 3rd warmest winter ever across the US! Warm yes. Not close to warmest ever. @Ji shame we can’t talk about this in the main thread, it would distract from the one whole post there today!

I think in some cases I didn’t weight the right factors enough and I didn’t correctly calculate how some would influence the pattern. I under valued the PDO. Severely. I also thought the pacific base state would mute the very strong basin wide nino into a moderate basin wide nino. Which is a good pattern. But what happened is we got a hybrid with the worst of both. The Nina like base state showed up with a western pac ridge. This acted to shift the Nino trough east so that it acted more like an east based Nino. It also supercharged the jet due to the compression between the western pac ridge and the trough to its northeast. This continually flooded the US with pac puke. It also shifted the jet north and ran destructive interference with attempts at blocking. In summary we got some of the shitty long wave features of a Nina but with enhanced warmth of a Nino.