psuhoffman

It’s going well so far.

That’s how hard it was to type all that.

All winter you find the worst looking long range guidance to post. Now when there is almost no reasonable chance of snow for DC you’re cherry picking 600 hour control runs. What’s your deal?

@CAPE I was just looking at some of the data and updating my enso snowfall files. Here is the problem... La Nina's have not actually been getting any snowier...actually they are getting less snowy too, but they are getting less snowy at a much slower rate than neutral and nino's which lately have suddenly gone from being significantly better than Nina's to now sucking maybe even worse...definitely worse in the case of neutrals. 20 years ago the data strongly indicated our best enso phase by far was Nino's, followed by neutrals and without any question the worst were Ninas. For BWI at one point not too long ago the averages were ~28" in a nino, 19" in neutral, and 15" in a nina. The sad state of where we are is that Nina's are not any snowier...but that 15" average now just looks good v bad because neutrals and ninos have suddenly decided to suck because we no longer can easily get cold enough without the NS. The problem is a lot of NS involvement while it does make us colder...or it can when the trough is in the east...it also runs interference on getting bigger juiced up storms at our latitude! So its a catch 22. The problem is we are no so freaking warm without the NS that we might be better off rooting for that and taking the nickel and dime crap we can get because everything else equals a no chance shit the blinds torch pattern. The problem is this leaves us very little chance of a "what used to be considered" a snowy winter...one where all the airports go over 30" for example. I just don't know what would even give us a good chance of that right now given how warm it is when the NS gets out of the way, and the fact the NS being involved makes it less likely to get big storms.

@Terpeast revelstoke has snow data on their website for every season going back to 2008. You can make a graph that shows seasons snowfall by week. Take a look as it’s pretty indicative of the patterns for that area.

@Terpeast just a thought, sorry if you already know this…if you do go to the powder highway resorts Jan and early Feb are good (often Jan better than Feb) but I wouldn’t book in advance later. First of all they typically get dumped reliably early in November, December and early January when the pac jet is further north. They also aren’t high elevation and can start getting thaw freeze cycles in Feb and even in recent Nina’s it’s been warm at times out west too. Plus sometimes in Feb as the pac jet relaxes some the storm cycles can start sliding south of them. This is in contrast to the southern very high elevation resorts in Colorado where later is often better.

Drive through Codorus today, the lake is very low. Surprising, we’ve been reasonably wet.

Ok if we’re being more realistic guidance does suggest there might be some pretty awesome snowstorms up in the mountains of Vermont, NH, Maine the last week of March and early April. If you need to see one more snow that bad just plan a trip. I’m stoked for what it could mean for the late ski season.

I can’t speak for Terp but I go out west primarily for the skiing. If I just wanted to see snow yes I’d just drive somewhere. I’ve done snow fix weekends to western MD and WV.

I’m just making an interesting observation. Make if it what you will.

Note the indications of more NS involvement showing up evident from the blue extending into central Canada. I said that bothered me when I saw it showing up a few weeks ago and it was the first step to the pattern breaking down. That increased NS involvement eventually screwed with the -nao. It’s showing up again at the same lead time in the same way.

Schweitzer, Redd, Revelstoke, Panorama and Sun Peaks are all on ikon. If my brother can get a whole week off next winter some combo of those would be my preferred trip. Southwest has flights to Spokane.

I think it won’t be as bad as the last few years. This year was the final kick in the nuts for most I think. For the last 5 years many who tried to deny how bad it’s getting have said the same thing “wait for a Nino”. That was their hold lot hope. Well we got one, and with a -QBO and solar max no less! And it was the warmest winter ever with below normal snow. With that last false hope rug pulled I think at this point all except the most insanely delusional few have come to accept our new reality and that 90% of our winters are just going to suck. Sure once in a while we will luck into a 2010 or 2014 or a 2016 type storm but for the most part we should enter every winter with the expectation it’s going to suck ass with way less than “average” snowfall and so as those new expectations set it people won’t complain as much once we all come to accept we are what NC was 20 years ago and snow just isn’t normal here anymore. The good news is we will eventually get a period with more above Normal snowfall seasons. I grunted it! That’s because at this rate in 20 years our average snow will be like 7” and then these dreg winters will just be normal!

regardless of the snow maps temps aren’t supportive of accumulating snow for 90% of this region. And that’s on the typically coldest model!

Next year might be perfect to hit up the powder highway resorts in BC!

If the kids ski, something to keep in mind Copper Colorado is the best western resort I think for beginners and mixed ability levels because the mountain progresses from beginner to expert right to left looking at the mountain. And it’s one of the few big mountains where they have a lot of top to bottom runs for beginners. It’s also close to the towns of Frisco, Dillon Breckenridge and Vail and not too far from Denver. And if you want to hit up more than one mountain Winter Park and A basin are within reasonable drives and all 3 are on the ikon pass. Definitely get some kind of pass the window rates are outrageous! It doesn’t get the most snow. About 300” a year. Some places out west are over 400. But if you’re planning ahead for a set week anywhere out west above like 7000 feet will have a lot of snow on the ground.

Depends what your goal is. If you just want to see the most snow during a dump then the Tahoe or Mammoth Lakes areas are best. But yes more expensive but for be the biggest issue is it’s also very windy which imo can make heavy snow less aesthetically pleasing. but it also means everything closes including ski resorts. For me if I’m going out west I want to combine my snow chase with a ski trip. Jackson Hole is a nice town in a snowstorm. Was in Revelstoke when they got like 20” over a few years back. Steamboat is the best Colorado ski town for a snowstorm where they get a lot of snow in town also. But honestly if you just want a snowstorm chase, at some point there will be a big snow in northern New England. If you like tracking the storm and using radar to pin down a heavy band during..that’s a better bet. Out west it’s all topography and radar is useless.

@Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow anywhere near us. It’s all in northern New England. You would think we would be worried about suppression in this look!

This is pathetic

Sure, but only to the same degree that I tracked last year and for the last couple weeks. I’ll take a quick look at the guidance from time to time, but with no expectation of anything good.

We just can’t know

We learned our lesson. Every winter is gonna suck.

IMO it depends on ability level. A-basin has some amazing expert level trees over on the Pallavicini side...but they are extremely challenging. Copper has some better trees for advanced intermediates to advanced but not true expert level. Winter park has the best IMO of the 3 resorts you mentioned. WP has really nice trees in between some of the trails on Mary Jane and especially under the Eagle Wind lift.

That was as of a week ago...its been warm. But also, not sure if his data is the same, what I saw the NWS release might have included Alaska and Hawaii.

@powderfreak or anyone else.... I'm pushing hard in rehap from a knee injury to try to get back out by Easter this season...but is there enough base at Subarbush, Stowe, and Sugarloaf for there to be a decent April ski season this year?