psuhoffman

It’s not even close but it has an absolutely perfect long wave pattern with a -nao and +pna which helps us get a 45* rainstorm instead of a 55* one!

Daily https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ monthly https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Gonna rain

I’m tracking my April ski season in VT. Dunno what you’re doing.

We used to think the same thing about the poor schmucks in NC or SC that would track patterns and we knew even if everything went perfect it probably still wasn’t going to snow there. We’re those schmucks now.

@Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow even close to us. Other than above 3000 ft the snow is all north of the PA/NY line!

The coldest high (not during a rainstorm) between April 15 and May 15 in 2019 was 62 degrees. Most days were in the 70s. I think the -NAO ruining our springs has been a bigger narrative than it has a reality.

That run takes us through March 15. And the whole continent is still torched...it took 2 weeks to fix that problem in mid winter...what is your timeline here?

But you are in CT, that's way different... its often 10-20 degrees colder there in the spring with backdoor cold fronts...we don't get those this far south. I am not complaining about a sunny 60 degree day, and that's about as bad as it gets due to blocking down here once past mid April.

The coldest day at BWI between April 15 and May 15 in 2022 that wasn't during precipitation was one day with a high of 58. The next coldest was a high of 60. Most of that month had highs in the 60's or 70s. There were several legit chilly days with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s but they were all days when it was raining. I don't care what the temp is in a rainstorm, I'm not outside anyways.

well it has a -NAO, MONSTER 50/50, perfect pacific, central pac trough, PNA ridge... just don't look at the temps TORCH lol #itjustdoesntmatter

Are you ok? Do you need help?

First... you know you can make those maps yourself...just google daily or month climate composites. Second...by April 15 onward its so warm that it doesn't matter...-NAO or not so long as its a sunny day we get pretty warm. Maybe its 60 instead of 70 but its still a really nice day. Its late March and early April that a -NAO can really make it miserable out for a little while.

I hadn't noticed

Pittsburg

I was in that band... one of many storms I've chased over the years. Helped someone driving some 80s oldsmobile near Yale who had no business being on the roads get unstuck twice only to watch him immediate drive into the next snow drift lol. Had to dig myself off the highway in New Haven because none of the exits were plowed yet. Was stuck there for a couple days. But...I actually didn't find the band itself all that impressive. It was very wet, and windy, and while it was snowing incredibly hard it didn't look as aesthetically pleasing as some other heave snow events I've witnessed. The heaviest sustained snow I've ever experienced still remains the first few hours of the Feb 10 2010 storm here...not the CCB the following day but that WAA band that set up the night before and was mostly a mix down near DC and Baltimore...we had this crazy convective band sitting over us here for 3 hours and got about a foot of snow from it. But it was not windy and just cold enough so it was HUGE flakes and looked even harder then it was...not that 3-4" an hour wasn't heavy snow.

However, 2011 was actually cold, we just got miller b'd a few times on all the big storms. 2012-2013 was a torch here but legit COLD out west...I dont mean cold like the last 8 years where its just "colder" but legit cold. So for our specific location on the means you're right its been mostly a snowless torch since 2010 with just a short interlude...but if you pull back its been since the last super nino in 2016 that this "warm all over at our latitude" has been a troubling issue.

Even with 2014-2015 DC is averaging the same climo wrt temps and snowfall as central NC since 2010. It's averaging the same climo as SC since 2016.

Something that's been bothering me though the last few days...the EPS wants to retrograde the NAO ridge very quickly and it ends up centered pretty far south in Canada...that used to work, but in recent years when that happens it's just been linking up with the mid latitude ridges which neutralizes the suppressive benefits of the -NAO. Just something to look out for here. On top of the fact its going to be late March by the time cold makes its way east.

that place is awful definitely, I was just referencing that by the raw numbers when I peeked at the different enso region numericals and the modoki index, which I know is imperfect, by the raw numbers it ended up slightly more central pac based than the projections back in November that I saw. I don't think that was why we failed.

the nino actually became more modoki than expected...

But look at the loops and the last few winters were the same…what makes you so confident it goes strong into 8 and doesn’t just die and cycle into warm phases again which is what killed the last attempt at this same pattern evolution? I’m not sure it won’t. Just saying that chart doesn’t make me feel good in any way. Plus it’s late March by then. We can’t even get cold enough most of the time in January and February. Sorry to be a Deb. I want to be wrong.

No…early then late. But for the core of winter we had a favorable pna, but the wavelengths just broadened. The SER shifted to the center of the country and the warmth was so expansive it didn’t matter that technically we were under a mid to upper level trough. But it’s all the same problem. It doesn’t matter what the specific long wave pattern is if warm keeps winning in such a lopsided rout over N.A. at our latitude. ETA: let me clarify I’m not saying getting a favorable pdo won’t help. It will. It will snow more. This is a matter of degrees. But there have also been times during this PDO where the pacific for a time wasn’t that bad and the warmth was still winning across the CONUS. I’m not sure that is totally solved by the PDO. I’m pointing out that at our latitude regardless of the long wave pattern cold is having a hard time winning anywhere. Whether there is a ridge or “technically” a trough but one flooded in the lower levels with pac puke!