psuhoffman

Here is the problem….even if todays great looks are correct the pattern is setting it a week too late. That wave around the 19-20 has no cold in front to work with. So it’s very unlikely to be a big snow at lower elevations. The boundary is a mess. It would take an incredibly anomalous event. Possible not likely. After that it gets colder but history suggests that’s too late. March 20 is really the limit. There have been a handful of significant snows as late as around March 20. But after only one in the last 100 years and it was a crazy weird inverted trough event. Pure statistical probabilities says after March 20 the odds of a significant snowstorm near DC is too low to worry about until it’s right on top of us.

There is nothing wrong with the pattern...its the date and the fact there isn't really any cold air to start with anywhere that makes me skeptical.

There are hints that perhaps there could be more arctic air involved in the pattern after March 20 or so...but so much would have to go perfectly at that point for it to matter. There is a reason there are VERY few examples of significant snow that late in the DC Baltimore area. For places with higher elevations, you know who you are, there are somewhat better chances late March and early April.

Maybe we could get into the weeds on the exact details, but you know 99% of the people in this forum don't live at 2000 feet either. The gist of his point, that for almost everyone in here it's over...is probably accurate. Weather is crazy, and ridiculous things can sometimes happen...the Palm Sunday storm wasn't even in a cold pattern it was just some crazy Norlun trough setup but its the only example of that in 150 years of records. Could something like that happen again, sure, but I don't see his statement the same way. There is always the chance of something like that, its never 0 chance, but for the lowlands in here the chances are now too low to be worth tracking everyday and getting excited.

If we compare this -PDO period to the two previous DEEPLY -PDO cycles most similar, the early to mid 50's and early to mid 70s this isn't that much different. The results are about 10-20% worse which is in line with what we would expect from warming. What makes this period a LOT worse so far is that we had 2 bad winters before the -PDO even really got going where as those two previous periods were bookended by snowy periods on both sides. But even that is likely an artifact of warming...2018 and 2019 might have both been 20" winters back then and we would be thinking this current dreg period was only a few years v 8. Big difference from a small nudge in the wrong direction from climo.

Are you questioning his legitimacy as a meteorologist?

How did you determine the current temp base state? With the temps having spiked so much the last 9 years might those methods be underestimating the warmth at all. I know some if this current extreme warmth might be cyclical not permanent so I’m not saying we should have estimated it based on the last 5 years but wondering if when adjusting a winter from prior to 2016 if right now we’re in a worse spot than even that method indicates.

2006 wasnt bad...but if you adjust that season to the post 2016 warmer reality most of the snow from that season might end up rain.

@Ji remember when you kept saying "you hope that one week with 2 minor snows wasnt our "january 1987". Well 2 of my top analogs were 1966 and 1987. Both had one epic week in January and then a fluke "warm" snowstorm in February. Look at this winter...we had one cold week in January with 2 snows but they were minor then in mid Feb there was a perfect track rainstorm where I got 6" of slop. Maybe this was those winters but adjusted for today's climate. Warmer with a faster more energetic NS running interference. This is just what that produces now.

Yea, you're right if you just look at all ninas following nino's its not that bad...but next year has a LOT stacked against it. Severely -PDO regime, very very warm current base state, unfavorable QBO, likely past solar max so unfavorable there too... just not much to be optimistic about unfortunately. Just hope for a fluke. 2000 was a good example. That year was just awful the whole winter except 10 days...and we got 3 snows in those 10 days and remember it as a good winter.

even that doesn't get it done, its just a perfect track rainstorm, which is my point.

I wouldn't use the temps at 8am after a night of radiational cooling to judge the quality of the airmass. The reason I pulled the plot I did was there is actually precip going on behind the wave across much of that area during the time I circled it. Yes it's not heavy precip but it gives a clear idea of what we're working with. Even under some precip its in the upper 40's and near 50 in most places. It would take a really anomalous event to cool that airmass enough to support a snowstorm.

Look at the temps under those coldest anomalies at our latitude... this is what's incoming on that control run, and it matches the anomalies on the ensembles also...and is colder than the GEFS and GEPS frankly... This is JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH... I wish it was. This isn't what I want. You know I get excited when I think its going to snow...I was giving this period a chance, at least some chance...until maybe 3 days ago when it got into range to start seeing what the temp anomalies realistically looked like and its just not good enough. Not shocking given its been the warmest winter ever across the continent. Actually was silly to think there was much chance suddenly real legit cold was going to show up in late March. The only chance for significant snow I can see now would be some crazy once a century type event, some phased bomb that stalls and destroys us, and even then I don't know if it would be cold enough in that airmass...it's just very unlikely.

@Ji I think it fully depends on if the pdo cycle continues. But it’s unlikely to flip heading into a Nina. Unfortunately Nina’s following a Nino in a strongly -pdo cycle are not as favorable. Look at the Nina’s in the early 50s and 70s, 2017 and 2020. Yea 2020 was a neutral but in a strong Nina base state it behaved like a Nina following a Nino. Additionally you have to impose the current temp regime into Past analogs. Even if we got a 2006 repeat for instance, the 3 biggest snow events that winter were all extremely marginal wrt temps and likely would just be rain right now in this current torched pacific PDO regime!

What examples are you using?

@Jilook at the euro control for example. It develops a low around the 18th, perfect track, but it’s in the 40s under the CCB! Only place that gets any snow is above 3000 feet and that’s iffy. That’s what those anomalies translate to in late March. We need arctic air. Absent that it would take some truly crazy event like a stalled 970 low that goes nuts.

A chance sure. But that isn’t what we want it to look like to feel confident.

Yes and I said that bothered me remember. But in February slightly below normal can work. Not in late March.

I was just horribly wrong just a few weeks ago when I was full weenie mode. But that just isn’t cold enough. The last week of March we need those anomaly maps to show Barnie.

That isn’t even close to cold enough.

Shocking

She is 5 and lives in the moment. If it was snowing she would be equally happy

My 5 year old daughter came in excited because she found flowers growing and saw a bee.

you're deflecting though... my issue wasn't that you were conservative all winter...I never said anything about that. But why now, when the odds of snow are way worse...are you suddenly posting the snowiest guidance from each run?

Mine wasn’t a personal attack it was a valid question which you didn’t answer. During the winter when we do have a more realistic chance at snow you typically find the least optimistic piece of data. You never show some control run or cherry picked obscure op run that shows a big snowstorm. You typically show the ensembles and even then you usually tend to snow the least snowy presentation. If it’s snowy day 9 you will show the day 1-7 mean lol. If the mean is snowy you will show the probabilities, which granted are a better way to depict our snow chances but still my point is you always show the most conservative guidance. Now it’s March and we’re looking at a period that’s very likely too late and now you’re cherry picking op runs and 600 hour control runs that show snow. My observation and question why is valid. And Zens conclusion you are trolling is a logical one given that evidence. If you have an alternative explanation feel free to provide it and set the record straight.