Baum

nowcast.

sans 1978,1979, 1999, 2014, one of the more eventful New Years. And yes, it has been a slow winter, but it is far more typical and common that folks would like to acknowledge. Very rare is it that we get a winter that runs the table like 2014...like maybe 1979 (note even that ended about sometime in February). Remember plenty winters that did not begin until mid January and ended up making decent runs. By hook or crook we'll probably surpass 30" and end up near average. Agree with Beavis if you think you get non stop snow and cold here from December 1-February 28 rarely happens. If it did, why get pumped-it would be an everyday occurrence. BTW...if you think Minneapolis doesnt suffer days on end of single digit temps with no snow check around. Upper Penninsula by Beau different story.

13 days. large part of LOT under a WWA on New Years Day. And truth be, the mid range forecast of a 2 week stretch of dullsville was spot on.

RC delivers the goods in the PM LOT longterm AFD today. Good read. Hope is alive.

In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. FWIW...still looks like a couple nice wintry days coming up. On Cue: " AFTER THE VERY LONG QUIET STRETCH ENDING WITH THE PRECIP THURSDAY- THURSDAY NIGHT, A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND LIKELY BEYOND DAY 7. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY."- LOT AFD If all goes well I can walk the arboretum this weekend and take in the snow covered forests.

meltdowns on 1"-3" fluff storms is new even for this board. Don't want to see what happens when a 12"-18" er slides south and east less than 18 hours out.

let me help. The trends are pretty much on track for a 24-36 hour period of snow showers/squalls wrapping around an occluding upper low. Model output on accumulations in situations like this are variable at best. If your looking for a solid 4" event this is not it. If your looking for periods of snowshowers with the potential for an inch or two over a long period of time you'll be pleasantly surprised I suspect. More importantly, it maybe signalling a colder and snowier pattern versus days on end of cloudy and seasonable temps. Personally, I like these type of set ups as a winter weather enthusiast (). Perspective is key.

^ agreed. not since last april.

I actually enjoy these type of events. Hoping for an overperformer.

change is a foot. Right on cue.

"TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY APPEAR A BIT BROAD BRUSHED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS ULTIMATELY END UP, BUT AT THIS POINT, A ROUGH RANGE OF A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT."- LOT AFD well played.

to an untrained eye...00Z NAM looks fun.

without angry summons input I'm sort of lost.

hard to believe any model will have a handle on the snow shower/squall accumulations layed out by this set up. Just enjoy that'll look like January and it maybe the change in the pattern we need.

Ironically, my recollection believes big cold upper lows settling over the great lakes have always been good harbingers of switches to a more wintry pattern in January where we've been through a long period of bland. Take it for what it's worth.

^ snow events on glorified cold fronts have never been money in these parts.

^ spot on.

GFS out to lunch.

^ yet. Has to get in NAM range for that.

I'm now pumped to see "a few flurries" added to my forecasts to add some variance to the day in, day out refrain of "Mostly Cloudy with a high in the low 30"s"

when does the 18Z GFS roll out?

nah.

It's a start.^