Baum

A lot of rookies.

LOT extended the watch a little further south and east as of 9am.

I think LOT's ideas of how this will lay out are spot on. In thier CWA Rockford looks like ground zero. Nice way to start the season....storm tracking on Thanksgiving Weekend.

Ft Wayne low passage is normally golden for me. But November....8:1 ratios much tougher. Oh, and it's the NAM.

There's an 18Z euro?

GFS had been the south outlier all week. Not just yesterday.

Rarely is there a solid consensus via models at this distance. This model fluctuation is more typical than atypical. No model has shown a consistent track over the past 72 hours. They have been consistent showing a major impact storm for the past week. The European model lost the title "King" long ago. Perhaps the GFS is the model that being an outlier south all week is now working its way back to the northern placement most of the other models had been showing most of the week up until yesterday's runs. My experience tells me I'd like to be in Eastern Iowa and South Wisconsin. But than I recall St Louis getting a decent storm only a week ago....

Putting up the tree Sunday evening. An ongoing blizzard would be to perfect. Im not that lucky.[emoji2955] Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

@judah47: Latest #PolarVortex (PV) forecast animation shows largest PV disruption of the still young 2018/19 season. This will likely keep #winter weather rocking and rolling for the month of December. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1065986594333777920/photo/1 Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

This time a week ago not many would have seen the potential storm that is possible at the end of the weekend in the midwest. Things can flip in a hurry. And the general trend has been cold and stormy to start the season. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Rumour has it 12Z GFS is further south and east with the Sun-Mon threat. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

If your winter weather fan in Chicago weak El Niño is a good thing. No meteorology. Just my experience. Time will tell. As always a nice, and appreciated write up by RC.

Waiting for the obligatory post regarding I-65 in Indiana......

Based on this post I'm buying a new pair of snow pants.

Like where I sit. Inch of slush in early November, after the cold stole my patio sitting 'bout September 15. Worse, be torching in December.

Winter ended on December 15th to some on here.